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Swing and rise and then slide moves for week end

Posted on June 26, 2009 at 5:27 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

EURO and GBP made the rise yesterday during US session.After a dip they are making swing and rise during Japanese session.They are expected to swing and rise quickly during European session.After forming high towards late European session they are expected to slide towards close of European session.then swing and slide during US session for week end.

When traders take alternate positions of buy during rise after short covering and sell during drop after long liquidation the players also try to trap such emotional traders alternatively.The players are focused in profit when traders worry about US economy and other attributes about market moves.

Taders can wait for the quick rise to take sell positions as safe trading strategy.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

 

59 Responses to “Swing and rise and then slide moves for week end”

  1. on 26 Jun 2009 at 5:32 am1Gregor

    Dear dr.,

    USD/JPY for today?

    Many thanks,
    G.

  2. on 26 Jun 2009 at 5:52 am2jason

    Hi Dr

    Thank you for your postings again.

    The markets have been wild and trading has been very difficult.

    You mentioned that the majors will swing and rise during the european sessions and make new highs. Will the GBP exceed the recent highs ?

    Appreciate if you can comment.

    cheers
    jason

  3. on 26 Jun 2009 at 6:22 am3Neil

    hi Doc, do u think euro could again go to 1.42 levels? whats ur long term view on euro? As you said that it will slide in coming days and month end. Still you hold the same view?
    Thanks

  4. on 26 Jun 2009 at 7:17 am4Kevin

    you were right doctor, the dips during gap time was a false move to fool traders to short then the big rise started. thank you very much for the profitable call!

  5. on 26 Jun 2009 at 7:41 am5abha sharma

    hi Dr. what level you think is worth shorting euro ? around 141.50 or so?

  6. on 26 Jun 2009 at 7:41 am6balanced

    DR,

    Fast move up on GU. Operators should slide them.
    them in mid session - do you agree?

  7. on 26 Jun 2009 at 7:50 am7Francesco

    Good day Dr.Sivaraman,

    cable is still in the trading range 1.62 - 1.65
    Do you think there are chances to upbreak this range today?
    Or still area 1,6450 - 1,65 is good to sell on strenght?

    Yesterday my sell on USDCHF could have been profitable if I had not been stopped out for a few pips.
    Due to the SNB on the market, I prefered to keep a stop at entry.
    This is a perfect example of the topic about hedging and stop losses we discussed about in the last days.
    By the way trade safely gives us more chances to profit in the future.

    Regards,

  8. on 26 Jun 2009 at 8:21 am8vinesh

    doc what r u r thoughts on ucad

  9. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:02 am9Emil

    Dear Dr. Will EURGBP also slide form peak during EU session?

  10. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:15 am10mice

    Hi Dear Dr

    sir if we shorted near highs when to close it late in us ? or can keep it for monday ?

    regards

  11. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:18 am11vinesh

    Chinese are calling for new reserve currency doc this is going to impact dollar. what is your take on this and seems like eu has broken out and trending higher what should we expect for dollar

  12. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:35 am12su25

    My take on new reserve currency - it will take a few decades, if at all, for the “new” reserve currecy to take effect. Take the case of € as a reference. So, I would agree with Doc that such “attributes” are used to create short-lived “market sentiments”.
    Until the new reserve currency is in place, there will be many trading opportunities to make (or lose) money! And, by then I wonder how many of us will be actively trading:)

  13. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:38 am13Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Gregor
    Swing and rise expected.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  14. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:40 am14Kevin

    amazing calls doctor very profitable again thank you. Are you expecting a constant swing and slide during the entire US session?

  15. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:40 am15Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear jason
    We need to wait and see- if more short covering happens then the rise could be more.If traders turn long around consolidation level then the players may not rise.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  16. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:41 am16Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Neil

    The view is there.But we need to see how the players are acting as they are making moves in thin volume market condition.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  17. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:42 am17Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear abha sharma & Francesco

    When they rise above high next time you may watch and short once the new high is not cut for more than 30 min.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  18. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:43 am18Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear balanced
    may not be immediately.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  19. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:45 am19Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear vinesh
    swing and rise some more.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  20. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:46 am20Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Emil

    Yes after one more upward stop hunt above high.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  21. on 26 Jun 2009 at 10:47 am21Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear mice

    You can keep stop at entry and then think of position trading to mjaximize the profit.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  22. on 26 Jun 2009 at 11:00 am22Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear vinesh
    there might be some quick moves in the market for that and later the moves will look for more new events.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  23. on 26 Jun 2009 at 11:02 am23Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Kevin
    The rise has happened.Further rise could happen if majority of short sellers are not willing to cover the shorts before US session.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  24. on 26 Jun 2009 at 11:22 am24abha sharma

    great, many thanks, but if you have noticed that currency market is so volatile that in less than 30 mins the market again comes back to the level from where it has risen then how to short it higher level?

  25. on 26 Jun 2009 at 12:05 pm25mice

    Hi sir

    they still holding the high what does that mean sir ?
    another upward stop, or convencing the trader to go long ?

    regads

  26. on 26 Jun 2009 at 12:14 pm26Francesco

    Dear Dr. Sivaraman,

    at this stage is hard for me to understand if players’ intertion is to hold crosses to buil short position or continue the rise instead.

    Equities are holding on, but maybe they don’t seem to have the strenght to break further.
    Volumes also don’t help to understand and increase volatility.

    What is your opinion?

  27. on 26 Jun 2009 at 12:29 pm27Neil

    ok thanks for ur valuable feedback, data time lets see how it moves

  28. on 26 Jun 2009 at 12:30 pm28Nazali

    Hi Dr

    Would it be a good time to buy usd/jpy at current levels or wait until Mon? Many thanks.

  29. on 26 Jun 2009 at 12:49 pm29Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear abha sharma
    if you follow it in GMT time frame you can see before 30 min again they cut the high or low then you need to wait for 2 hrsd and if session change comes then wait for 30 min from start of the session and then take short near high if they donot cut the new high in 30 min from start of the session.if they cut then again wait for 2 hrs to short when they donot cut the low again during last 30 min of watch in 2 hrs time frame specified.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  30. on 26 Jun 2009 at 12:50 pm30Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear mice
    when traders are not making short covering and turning long the players will hold high and make upward stop hunt or rise to create fear to such traders to close the positions in loss.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  31. on 26 Jun 2009 at 12:52 pm31Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Francesco
    it is week end - so they will make quick volatile moves during US session.When quick moves happen one can take positions.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  32. on 26 Jun 2009 at 12:53 pm32Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Nazali
    If you want to make quick swing trades and earn try to trade in EURO or GBP.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  33. on 26 Jun 2009 at 1:38 pm33Kevin

    doctor when you say swing and slide is this the players booking profits and building shorts?

  34. on 26 Jun 2009 at 1:39 pm34Nazali

    Hi Dr

    Am I correct in Swing and Slide is to break the day’s low? Does it still look possible in eur & gbp today? Many thanks.

  35. on 26 Jun 2009 at 2:14 pm35Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear Nazali
    Yes.But now it appears they want to squeeze the short sellers towards close for week end.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  36. on 26 Jun 2009 at 2:15 pm36Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Nazali

    they may not make big drop .They may swing near high for some time now.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  37. on 26 Jun 2009 at 3:02 pm37Nazali

    Hi Dr

    Gbp & eur have not broken the high since US session start which would be a sell signal as it’s over 30mins. You say they may swing near high for some time - do you expect a slide or drop after. Many thanks

  38. on 26 Jun 2009 at 3:27 pm38Francesco

    Dear Dr.Sivaraman,

    why do you suggest to avoid trading in denominator currencies?

    Thank you

  39. on 26 Jun 2009 at 3:37 pm39Constantin Lucian

    Dr. what do you recommend for a position trader for the month of july. I really evolved in my trading since i started position trading following your blog. Only profit or break even for the last 10 trades, it really let’s you observe the market and it’s moves with calm. The only problem for me now is establishing a trend every month for pairs so that is why i am asking for your advice. Thank you again for all the help

  40. on 26 Jun 2009 at 4:32 pm40Duyzero

    Hi Dr,

    Gbp and Eur swing near high from late of EU till first half US session. Are players building short? whether they will do upward stop hunt to let traders loss before they make drop?

    Regards,
    Duy

  41. on 26 Jun 2009 at 4:48 pm41abha sharma

    its almost 5 hours its not cut the high and now quickly near the high, so wht to do in such case? how the 30 min policy will work here sir?

  42. on 26 Jun 2009 at 5:19 pm42Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Nazali , Duyzero & abha sharma

    They cut the high in EURO and GBP during gap time -then made the dip of 30-50 pips from high and then stared rising and holding near high - so the dip was a false move induicating they want to squeeze the short sellers towards close.When they are buying all the selling near high also indicate that the players want to do week beginning extended upward stop hunt before the drop.
    We need to read all their moves and derive the intentions and the basic trading strategy is to do only swing trades and not position trade.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  43. on 26 Jun 2009 at 5:20 pm43Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Francesco

    the waiting time to book profit will be long - so we may lose patience,it is better to avoid such a situation for the time being.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  44. on 26 Jun 2009 at 5:21 pm44Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear Constantin Lucian
    Initial dip for 1-2 weeks in July and futher rise is expected in EURO and GBP.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  45. on 26 Jun 2009 at 5:27 pm45Nazali

    Hi Dr

    I thought it was eur & gbp to drop in July to early Aug? will we not see a big drop now?

  46. on 26 Jun 2009 at 5:31 pm46su25

    Dear Doc
    Net change on weekly basis for this week and last week are very small (GBP: 40 so far and 85 for last week). Neither have the maximum permisible limits been traded. Does this imply that the moves are consolidation/range bound? Can we expect EXTREMELY volatile moves next week with > 500-600 pips high/low range? If yes, how best to position our trades next week?
    Thanks and regards.

  47. on 26 Jun 2009 at 5:44 pm47radha

    All, Just a comment….The market provides opportunities to close any position i.e. buy or short as long as we are satisfied with 20 to 40 pips profits…holding on to positions for bigger profits generally leads to anxiety and emotional response/ strain etc…some of my learnings..Thnx

  48. on 26 Jun 2009 at 5:50 pm48Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear Nazali
    Wwe will see the drop but the rises will more more in pips than the drops.So over all rise is expected - I gave this info in my -forecast for the year 2009 webinar.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  49. on 26 Jun 2009 at 5:52 pm49Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear su25
    yes this month more of wide range swings and not the trending moves are seen.next month the volatility could increase if the traders take more positions.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  50. on 26 Jun 2009 at 6:12 pm50smith

    Dear Doc,

    according to your forecast about EUR and GBP in July it seems to reduce the chance to reach the 1.12-1.14 level in USDHCF and level of 100+ in USDJPY in the coming weeks? or you think we are in the right way to reach these levels?

    thanks in advance

    regards
    smith

  51. on 26 Jun 2009 at 6:17 pm51Constantin Lucian

    su25 do you do position trades?

  52. on 26 Jun 2009 at 6:31 pm52shoora

    Hi Doc,
    what do you think about 1.70 level in GBP next week?
    and would it be reasonable to assume that players can change their perspective from building shorts to building longs? I mean they could keep doing the same strategy we saw this month: trick traders into thinking a correction i due and then trap their short positions. Now they could spike in the beginning of the month, gain a level a keep trapping those who try to position for a drop. Do you think such reasoning would make sense?

  53. on 26 Jun 2009 at 6:43 pm53carlab

    Doctor:
    Are your webinars unregistered, so we can see them again pls? Tks for your greaat comments.

  54. on 26 Jun 2009 at 6:57 pm54Nazali

    Hi Dr

    I had nominal gain in USD for mid June to mid Aug and then USD losing mid Aug to Early Oct - is this not correct? Is usd/jpy still to rise in July? Many thanks.

  55. on 27 Jun 2009 at 6:08 am55Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear smith & Nazali
    We will first observe the month end trend reversal move during coming month to derive the next month trending moves.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  56. on 27 Jun 2009 at 6:10 am56Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear shoora
    the players are expected to makes as you think most likely.
    Next week beginning false move will indicate that.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  57. on 27 Jun 2009 at 6:11 am57Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear carlab
    You can attend the webinars free.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  58. on 27 Jun 2009 at 9:33 am58su25

    Constantin,
    I am a position trader. And, if my trades have gone bad, then I day trade against those positions. Assume I am short, and market has moved significantky against me, then I try to first average with another trade. If both have gone against me, then I trade 1 lot long against the 2 shorts on intraday to further reduce my average price. I never trade another pair unless my trades are making profits. And, trading aganst them (hedging) ensures that I do not commit more margin, and I concentrate only on one pair. Unfortunate part about my position trading style is I do not place stops, and when markets are trending then averaging does not help either!

  59. on 27 Jun 2009 at 2:17 pm59Constantin Lucian

    i’m asking you this because i also started doing position trade and it’s really satisfying. Also as we both read dr. blog and listen to what he says and also learn allot from him it will be nice to exchange opinions with you regarding position trades. If you would like that and also anyone else that wants too, here is my YM id luciannconstantin. Hope i didn’t break any rules of the blog dr. with this message

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