Operators' intentions read by 
EURO and GBP made the volatile moves and slide during US session close and during gap time before Japanese session,they cut the low and made the drop and quickly making the rise to cut the high during Japanese session close as expected. Now after gap time before European session a small dip,EURO and GBP are expected to firm up again till close of European session with swings to induce traders to close the positions in distress.
During US session in spite of holiday further rise and then fall are the expected moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear dr.,
I know I might look importunate, but I have to ask you again about EUR/SEK (or USD/SEK) cross. If you just take a moment or two and look at the weekly chart… Isn’t there a great potencial?
Once again, sorry for miss-topic question.
Kind regards,
Gregor
Hi Dr
can you pls tell me how many pips do you count in firm up move,extended stop hunts,dip,drop,fall,rise. thx
Regards
Arun Kandyal
l though u mentioned week end slide move will be done n also next week beginning on gbp, besides what is ur view towards gbp next week?
thanks
Hello,
For me this looks like clearing the market (stop hunting) before bigger move (up). I’m expecting it about Monday-Tuesday is that right Dr.Sivaraman? Keep the good job on!
best regards
Adam
Dear Doc,
USDJPY is testing the patience as always making volatile moves, causing huge downward stop hunts. Now it seems to react to the profit taking on the stock markets but in the background accumulating activity is going on, isn’t it?
What do you expect from USDJPY next week? Can we see the level of 97.50-98.00 in the pair?
thank you in advance
regards
smith
Gu just dropped 80 pips putting net change in negative, EU still is strong, still expect Gu to swing and rise? thanks.
Dr,We have seen the dip as you rightly predicted, do you think the rise will go as far as 1.66+
rgds
freddie
Hi Dr
can you pls tell me how many pips do you count in firm up move,extended stop hunts,dip,drop,fall,rise. thx
Regards
Arun Kandyal
Hi doc,
do you think GBP can hold in the same range (1.62 to 1.66) till mid August?
Dear Gregor
I am not tracking the pair.I am sorry I cannot comment without tracking it.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear rebecca
Players are still off loading their buys by making wide range swings- they need to build short position to drop in all 3 sessions of a day as intentional move- then the drop will be big- other wise a drop and rise and drop moves -wide range swings to continue.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear smith
USD/YEN is expected to rise - they are testing patiencxe of long holders to cut the positions and take positions in some other pairs.Then they will rise.Hence I suggested avoid taking positions as traders we should focus on profit and not to develop any sentiment towards any currency pair.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Kevin
No emotions please.they can rise and drop 150 pips just like that - they are dipping and buying to rise and book profit later.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear freddie & Adam
YES
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Dr.Sivaraman,
do you expect another upward spike or an extended upward stop hunt before the big drop begins?
In that case, do you think EUR and GBP will reach or at least go close to their recent highs once again?
Thank you!
Dear shoora
can any currency hold like that - there will be shift in trading zone- i will give before hand here the projections.calmly trade following todays swings.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Hi Dr. Do you think xross eur/yen will follow the move up in eur and gbp, and if so where do you think will be a good level to sell it? Do you think this eur/yen pair will trade below 130 this month, following a predicted move down in stocks? Tks very much
Dear Dr.
I am new in your bloog. In order to understand well you readings I would like to make you a question:
Is there any volume of transacction within the quick moves (long & coloured consecutive candles)?, or those moves are just a way players move the market from one place to another to hunt stops and/or book profits?
Thanks a lot in advanced
Dear Doc,
When you say that the trading range will change for gbpusd etc. What is your opinion regarding the next zone? Is it at higher or lower level? I see at bloomberg etc. some analysts come and talk about 1.70 zone. Thank you for your continued help. Regards..
hello dr, gbp has made a new low and can we expect a rise in GU in US session ? I still have a buy and sell position at 1.6480 and 1.6390 respectively , should i wait for the rise such that i can close buy position ?
hello doctor
is that it for the week for the pound.finishing off the week cutting the weekly lows?…or can it rally in the next few hours?
Hi Dr
Do you see gbp going below 6300 for the expected slide in the late US session? Many thanks as always.
hello Dr. What highs and lows can we expect in eur and gbp this month. Approximate, only as a rough guide. Thank you
Dear Arun Kandyal
I have explained earlier also the pip changes for various terms- if you search in blog you will get it.
firming up & dip 30-40 pips
rise and drop - 60-90 pips
stop hunt 30-40 pips
extended stop hunt -100-150 pips in the case of GBP at times 200 pips but not more than net permitted change for the day.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Francesco
YES
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Doc
Few queries:
1. Eur has not cut low for 2 hrs, good to go long with hedging?
2. I understand that rather than absolute levels, you look for price/market action from the players to determine the onset of a trend reversal. If yes, then what quantum of moves are you looking for to call it a trend reversal?
3. Once you are convinced that the trend is reversed, what kind of moves in pips will follow;
4. Finally, for how long will this trend reversal last (is it until mid-July?)
Thanks and regards
Dear carlab
Yen crosses to make sidewways moves now -as players are busy handling european crosses.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear CJS
candles try to reflect the market based in the time frame chosen to set the high low open and close.But they largly take the optimal volume trades for candle formation and quick and thin volume moves as noices or lines.They are not true reflection of the intentions of players as we tend to ignore the lines in the middle of the candle.Watching actual highs and lows set for the day will clearly indicate the intentions of the players for intra-day trading.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Mohi & Constantin Lucian
From current levels about 300-500 pips drop and from the low a rise to current levels and then a rise of 300-500 rise are expected in July -Sept.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
dear Rohan
you can close the sell now and close the buy during US session close or on monday using trailing hedging order.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear travis
Yes
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Nazali
they have already shown the low and are expected to firm up towards close of European session and then after gap time dip they could slowly firm up during US holiday for week end .In thin volume condition they will gain levels to open high again on monday and rise quickly to gain levels and induce short sellers during rise.The players are yet to build short positions
when traders sell during drop the players buy the sells and trap the visible short sellers- hence we see wide range swings many times.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
dear doc, i see your comment, saying g-u will 300-500 lower than current 1.63…
Dear maxi
yes, and also rise from current level later 300-500 pips as big swings for the season.
Regards
Dr.sivaraman
Hi Dr
So you don’t see the low in gbp being broken in the US session slide? I’m long @ 6450 should I hold on for the rise? Many thanks.
Thank you Dr. this season we will have great swing trades opportunities this season, and i guess that after September we will see firm up moves for gbp to reach 1.89 high in October - November. Also great opportunity to turn swing trades in position trades with trailing stop.
Hi Dr
Regarding the levels for the season - are we not first expecting a rise to 6500-6600 in gbp before the drop?
Dear Nazali
Yes you can hold and book profit on monday.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Constantin Lucian
thanks for the views.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Nazali
yes a rise and then drop and double rise to go above present high by next month.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Thanks Dr
Made a big mistake this week, wont let it happen again.
Dear Nazali
we learn from mistakes and we should avoid making simialr mistakes and is called experiece.If we learn from others mistakes to avoid making mistakes is professional approach.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Hi Dr.
Players always have interesting levels to move the price to hunt stops to the up side and to the low side. What are the clues we have to follow to identify more times the correct side?
Thanks
Hi Dr.
I wish to ask for your advice on setting stop loss. I always get hit by the stop hunt before it turned profitable. I am wondering what time is better to enter a trade, during a gap time or in the midst of a trading session.
Thanks in advanced. Wish you have a nice weekend ahead.
Dear CJS
When ever quick moves happen in a hurry think about the days when they made sudued moves -then we will be able to understand their intentions.After 2-3 days look back what happened on NFP data release date or ECB or BOE interest rate release days and compare with the event happen after 2-3 days or a week- then you will understand all the market sentiments created are hypes and the players create sentiments and when traders commit positions based on sentiments, they have acted against them.
Now a new situation in US under NFA umbrella
Traders have to take positions and watch physically to close without limit or stop,off course no hedging as well.Platform providers are expecting more swing and scalp trades from the traders - so that they can get the pip spread as profit.But the traders could only trade for brief time and keeping in mind the restrictions - the so called protection.
So the players may not be able to make stop hunts - instead extended stop hunts and spike could be order of day in future…..we have seen similar situation in 2000-2001 and that was nacent time of online trading.So traders were more worried about the safty of their funds and expected the brokers to be regulated by NFA.Non regulated brookers they did not support much initially.When non regulated brokers offerred more facilites like hedging, trailing stop, limit, OCO orders, etc,silently US platforms also started introducing the facilities and they also in the name of new platform providers offerred such facilities.white labelling was more used to offer such facilites.Then the US platforms one by one introduced all the facilites in their platforms to attrack back the clients when traders found that regulated does not really mean the fund will be safe, when others said the clients funds are insured.In recent times in the name of capital adequacy many of the broking firms were closed suddenly and clients funds were frozen.In the name of safty the clients positions were closed with deadline and the money is blocked for the clients to claim in instalements for several years.
In this condition the players will get the maximum advantage,may be hidden benefit.they can freely bring in margin calls.if traders hold very less positions to close the positions with definite profit with adequate equity,the heavy over night interest and carry over charges are going to be the order of the day.
traders could be compelled to make swing trades or close the positions in a hurry without taking chances.
NFA is now considered as policing agent.Fine,at times with too much of suspicions the police create lot of inconvenience to public- similar situation is seen.
We could see some changes in market moves and also the strategies of the players,still we can read them from their market moves and I will share with you all from time to time.
have a nice week end.
Market is expected to make an upward gap opening and quick rise on Monday.More I will explain in my Monday blog and also during Asian session webinar.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
dear kelvintc
it is often faced not only by you even by the professionals,technical analysts and common traders.So widening the stop does not help- instead keep optinal stop of 30 pips if the facility is provided by the platform.Hedging helps - if hedged the position is not closed we can relate the market with regard to buy and sell positions and with calm mind act on the sell or the by to get net profit with holding position.
if you want to avoid your position being closed by stop hunt - then take position during such stop hunt - the players may not do stop hunt for the stop hunt level - the stiop hunts happen during early and late sessions and before data release time and now a days the players make stop hunts after data release as the traders take positions after data release.so it is like wishing to take bath in beach when the waves settle down.
So wait for 30 min from the start of the session.if there is no stop hunt during watching time - then take a sell position near high or buy position near low to close around the opposite level ie for a buy near high or a sell near low.hedging alone can help if you want to earn from every position with profit.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
“if you want to earn from every position with profit”
It’s interesting about hedging, what reverse position lot size or another technique do you recommend when hedging, Doctor? Doubled, is it good solution, or somethng else ?
Mamy thanks in advance.
Best regards
Adam
Dear Adam
Hedging is ideal solution to replace stops as if the position is hedged we donot give more margin to hold the position and the buy and sell are not closed and they remain as positions for us to relate to market and following the market trend we could hold the favorable position and close the unfavorable position to earn net profit.Or we can keep limit of 100 -150 pips in both the positions and wait for the market to close both positions with profit during either way moves of the market.Or nwe can close the profit making position following the limitation of the move in that direction and take another averaging position and close both the opposite positions above the avearge for the buy or below the average for sell positions to earn net profti.
If hedging is not available in the same pair then we can use the respective crosses for hedging.say long in euro/usd and it goes against us then we can hedging by taking short position in Euro/GBP or EURO/YEN.still the pip moves may not be the same in both the pairs unlike in the case of hedging in the same pair.
Double stop can be used - ie for a buy or 1 lot we can take 2 lots of sell so that one lot of sell closes the buy and another sell lot should earn for us above the loss in cutting one lot with loss.Still the market volatility is important for us to decide on such trades,if subdued moves are seen then we may not be able to effectively maximize the profit in holding position.
So traders should avoid entering in the market just like that following the technicals or fundamentals.Instead they can do the same trade in a demo account and if the stop is not hit till we are able to place stop at entry in the position,and then take a position in real account.Or wait for quick stop hunts during session start and session close times and take positions to use the limitations of the players to avoid being hit.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Thank you very much for answer & clearing the matter, Doctor!
Best regards
Adam