Operators' intentions read by 
As explained in the webinar and yesterday blog , EURO and GBP opened higher and made the drop to go near low and make small downward stop hunt below low to rise quickly during early European session.very quick rise is expected during late European session to make a very quick drop during early US session.Then an upward spike is expected during US session.
Watch and trade during big wide range swings limiting the risk using trading strategies as explained in the webinars.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Respected Dr,
Once again thanks a lot for such an informative webinar.
regards
Good day Dr.Sivaraman,
we had a very fast drop during this gap time before European session.
Usually these fast moves are false moves.
Do you think EUR and GBP will reach 1,41 and 1,64 today or tomorrow?
Regards,
I believe doctor said he was expecting GU to hit 1.66 area I am correct? Thanks again doctor for your helpful insights.
big boys are testing our patience, i will wait for this rise, but i’m getting afraid if is this possible in this case, the bears seems quite strong. let’s see afternoon what happens (btw, I am long and in loss all the time)
Dear Dr.
thank your for your webinar and blog.
what is you opinion on EURGBP, has it turned or is there posibility for one more low?
thank you,
Vytas
Hi Adam,
My GBP long position has also been trapped for a week.
Hope we can get another 1.66+ to pull out of the mud together.
Dear Sir,
With all the fundamental news showing negativity for gbpusd, do you still think the pair would be around 1.655 area todayish or it will be around weekend? Regards..
dear doc. although you expect an overall decline, in majors you are of the strong belief that there should be a rise before a fall. perhaps this has induced your readers to take longs.
As I understand - it’s an overall rise expected this month - after a rise then a drop then a bigger rise.
as i posted a question in the blog , dr. answered that we can see eur between 1.37/1.35 low and 1.43/1.45 high and gbp 1.60/1.58 low and 1.66/1.68 high between july and september. Also dr you said in todays webinar if wee see a low and high level in gbp it will be a great opportunity to enter short or long, can you please say the levels again, i think you said 1.60 and 1.67 but i’m not sure. Thank you
also as i recall the “safe” trades for july in eur/usd gbp/usd aud/usd usd/chf and usd/yen are buy and sell trades.Although the last 3 pairs will really test your patience to book a good profit. Buy closer to the low and maximize profit with trailing stop.
Hello Doctor,
I’ve heard from many sources that there is a constant “tug of war” between Bears and Bulls. This seems logical because don’t some banks (Players) benefit when a specific currency pair rises while others benefit from its decline?
However, from your teachings I get the impression that you believe that this “tug of war” is merely propaganda and that perennial Bears and Bulls don’t exist but are merely Players trading in both directions?
This infers that all banks (Players) are of the same mind set.
Can you explain that situation?
Regards
dip and rise as expected thank you so much doctor well called!
Respected Dr,
I am short of words to show my gratitude.All I can say “U R GREAT”.
Thanks for yet another wondeful call today.
Please do keep informing us about the calls with reference to Start,Mid and late session timing like today.
Regards
Dear Doc,
This morning GU was hanging around high 1.62 areas. It went down over 100 pips to rise again to come back to original level or slightly lower. Is this enough for the players to build short position or they must go further up to 1.65-66 sreas? Unless they have high longs there, they dont have to. Is this correct? Thank you for your continued lessons. Kind regards..
I think he’s gone to bed
Has any of you guys n gals got any ideas thats gonna trgger the spike up this afternoon ( us sess)
I amy have misinterpretd, which was based on the following posts:
Fri Jul 3: “During US session in spite of holiday further rise and then fall are the expected moves.” Gbp was around 1.64 at the time of this post.
Fri Jul 3, reply 28: “From current levels about 300-500 pips drop and from the low a rise to current levels and then a rise of 300-500 rise are expected in July -Sept” Gbp was around 1.6350 at the time of this reply.
Anyone who took a long trade based on the 1st post are probably holding higher level buys.
Anyone who took a long trade after yesterday’s low of 1.6095 in Gbp, are probably holding profitable buys, and based on reply above is a perfect call.
Anyhow, not hedging trades would be painful in these market conditions.
Dear Dr,
How could we apply 30 min and 2 hour rule today in case of EUR/USD as it touched the HI and then cut it after about 50 min in late European session?
Regards
Dear Ahmed
thanks.
Youe second question - 30 min and 2 hrs rules can be applied based on the market moves - stop hunt and false moves are for less than 30 min,extended moves are for 1:30-2:00 hrs- so once we identify the move we can act either after 0 min or 2;00 hrs.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Francesco
before I could answer to your question the market has answered by making the rise.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Kevin
We could see around that area tomorrow or day after.Two days of downward stop hunt was the preperation for 2-3 days of upward rise.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Adam
there is no 2 group as bulls and bears- because the same group act as bulls and bears alternatively.They only misguide us telling that there are 2 such strong groups.they try to fool the traders by telling all what is not happening in the market as excuses.we need to know what is really happening in the market to avoid emotions.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
dear vytas
thanks for attending webinar.I explained how to read the net change in euro and gbp to find the expected moves in euro/gbp.They are rising euro by holding gbp- so another rise is the potency- then they will hold euro and rise gbp to drop it.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
dear Mohi
Now you know what the fundamental data has done to GBP.When negative after stop hunt it rised.So what the fundamental has to do with the market moves.They are used to trigger the market and the explanations can be any to make the traders to get convinced with the explanations - hence I call them excuses.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Hi Dr do you expect earlier lows to be re-seen by us session before spike in GBP , and when you say spike , i am presuming it will be very short lived . If so to what purpose do the players do this as it would be a very thin market for them to offload any real sizeable long positions and at what level??
dear su25
I suggested along with buy and sell trade the trading strategy to limit the risk as well.Some traders have taken highest level buys and I recommended only sell at that time.So such traders need to control emotions and trade along with players.Players rise and sell,drop and buy - we should also sell after rise and buy after drop.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Constantin Lucian
You have mentioned the levels correctly.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Joseph
forex is a high risk game- the players cannot have war.they have a syndicate and handle the market moves.But tell us a different story so that we donot track them.Misguidance is seen in every word of the banks and free investment advisors ‘creating terminologies’ for non existing events and conditions.Why they need to misguide and earn from trapped traders.so they are doing their job and we should not become fool every time.
can you become afraid and courageous in few seconds - but market can say risk aversion and risk appettite in seconds.hence I say they are misguiding expressions.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Mohi
they have high volume - all our volume put together is 1/3 and 2/3 of market volume is theirs including circular trades.So to earn for such a big volume they need to gain 300-500 pips and start selling to close long and turn short to buy after drop.
They make money in their average sells and average buys the difference will be around 100-200 pips only.to achieve that they need to make 700-100 pips swings.that they do in a month or in a range they make 3 times wide range swings of 300-500 pips.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Chris
I have so many work to do.Sorry for the delay in my reply.Isleep only 5-6 hrs in a day.I am of a kind to help and get the mental satisfaction.
reply to your second question
In a thin volume market how can they off load big volume- they need to rise 300-500 pips so that when they drop for 2-3 days they can close their longs.So in thin volume market gaining level is easlier for them.they are expected to repeat the wide range swings to reduce their holdings.We will see the spike for that to gain levels.hence 2 days of downward stop hunts they made.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
going to bed is not a criticism. we all need to sleep at some point, i was joking,
Hi Dr
So there is most likely rise for today and Wed and drop from Thur? Many thanks.
Doc, any comments on UCAD seems like they are doing extended stop moves which may go down to 1.13
Hello DR,
I am holding long from around 1.6450 which is what a few of your readers are holding. It looks like I am one of those who have taken a long at a high point, which didn’t seem high at the time because we had dropped from 1.66 and I recall you saying that it was going to go up in a big way that time. Anyway, we have been holding for about 4 days now and I need your advice as what to do now. It looks like GBP might touch 1.6350 (earliest tomorrow if I’m lucky) and then dip again. Should I just try and close out at the highest point and then take a loss of maybe 100pips. Or should I wait for a high of 1.65-66 which may not be hit. With all the negative sentiment GBP/USD is just about touching 1.62. Please enlighten me.
Dear Dr. Sivaraman,
so do you think that on a 2-3 days term, a buy below 1,40 and 1,62 for EUR and GBP can be a good move?
Regards
Dear Nazali
Current downward stop hunts indicate that they want to rise big from now and during gap time and tomorrow.then for BOE rate decision they could make an extended upward stop hunt and then may slide.I will give the updates as and when I read their intentions from time to time.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
dear vinesh
less drop and more rise moves are expected in usd/cad.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Francesco
I recommend buy during downward stop hunt and sell during upward stop hunts.Now downward stop hunt is seen and slowly the recovery is also seen.Not cutting the low and staying below low for more than 30 min.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Hi Dr.
If i want to trade at the same time two pairs, which ones would you recommend if my purpose is having at least one of them trending most of the time? (intraday trend)
What I try to avoid is the two pairs ranging (in 5 min chart) at the same time.
Thanks a lot
Lookslike they are building short positions in EURGBP by lowering GBP & Holding EUR for dropping tomorrow…
Dear Doc,
the drops are not quick drops but continuously selling pressure. GBPUSD has been falling calmly from the afternoon1S level, no support for it. So maybe this is the intentional move? On the upside I think we can reach the level of 1.63-1.64.
USDJPY is falling again because of the stock market sentiment. What level could be reached in USDJPY this week or next week on the upside? Should we see the bottom in it yesterday and today?
regards,
smith
Dear CJS
You can chose a currency of your choice and decide on the trade - once you are able to place at entry in that position you can take position in another currency of your choice following the market sentiment.
Euro and GBP are relatively safe currenies to show volatility and no one sided moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear radha
they are rising euro/gbp to gain levels and then hold and sell briefly and then slide with volume - so now they are absorbing shorts.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
dear smith
In my view they are dipping gbp and holding euro to rise euro/gbp and hitting stops in gbp and buying as well.USD/YEN they are dipping as they want to hit the stops in the lower levels in yen crosses as contrarian move.After mid session handling criosses they are expected to reverse.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Doc
This should be taken as constructive criticism, while my intention here is to learn:
When you attribute the drop/rise which has gone against your expectation/forecast as handling crosses or contrarian move or false move, etc., how are these attributes different from that of technical traders (using breakouts, resistace, suport, etc.) or fundamental traders (interest rate, CPI, GDP, interest rate, carry trade, risk aversion/appetite, etc.)? Why should your terminology not be considered as attributes similar to those of technical and fundamental traders? I find the similarilty between all 3 styles as having their respectives basis derived from experience, algorithm, statistical models, etc. and all have their place in trading. Ultimately, success of each style depends on the trading plan and money management.
If one was to trade purely on your rules/concept such as 10~30 mins, 30min~2 hrs, hedging, quick moves are false moves, permissible net change, etc. success rate would be greater. What influences your readers to digress from these rules is the bias created by frequent mention of longer term calls/levels which are based on your algorithm, while the rules are more for intra day and based your market readings.
The bias created by your longer term calls have the same effect as those of analysts/media creating a hype or fear or greed. When you give a call for Gbp rising to 1.66 when it is trading at 1.61, are you not creating “greed”? Are you not trying to teach us here to trade fearlessly without emotions, and not care about the levels, and that a currency pair can be traded at any level profitably?
If one were to ignore the absolute level where each currency pair is trading, and were to look at net change while applying the 10~30 mins rule, and use hedging strategy, trading would be so much less stressful and profitable! Readers should try it and experience for themselves!
Dear su25
I accept your comments and feed back.There is a difference in the attributes.I am trying to give the intentions of the players - they are known to drop and drop to buy and once bought fully rise and rise to sell.I recommend only intra-day trading to start with using hedging to limit the risk and to keep stop at entry once the position makes profit and trail the stop using a distance from the market and a limit to maximizing the profit.So I recommend to initiate a swing trade and if the going is good try to convert it into position trade without any panic or greed.I value the equity of the traders and recommend to limit the risk and maximize the profit using the limitations of the players.So I focus more on trading strategy than the calls.the calls are guidance and we cannot blindly follow them without limiting the risk.
Regarding the terminologies - I slways suggest to traders to follow the support and resistances set by the players as initial high and low and not call them as support or resisyance,because that will give the feel to the traders that the market could be supported or resisted at those levels.Also when the levels are breached the traders could be given the impression that the support could now turnout as resistance and create the sentiment like bullish or bearish.My objective is to give suggestions to traders and to use the concepts as test and if they work then use them in developing the market insight.
Secondly the intra-day and long term calls - I am giving them at times when traders ask for it.But I always caution them not to blindly follow without risk limiting measures.They blindly follow many times as they see those levels come in a day or two.But I never ask them to blindly follow my calls and trade.
There is a difference between fundamentals and technicals on one side and my forecast and trading strategies on the other side.
the trader may not know when the market is going to follow the technicals and fundamentals- they may alternate - and at a given time whether the market is going to follow the technical or fundamental is the question.if we try to apply both we may develop the attributes to say now the market followed fundamental as the US data is bad and EURO is expected to gain and in minutes say it has followed technicals as the resistance rejected the market to move above etc.So a common trader may not know when to follow fundamental or technical.
regarding my forecast algorithm- the initial forecast is derived and supsequently market reading is fone following the market reading to fine tune the expectations.Still the expectations may go wrong and hence trading strategy is also given simultaneously.
My explanations may appear attributes but later we understand that they are real.But the excuses derived in conventional analysis are short lived and no one question like you to such analysts why the expectation is not met with.
I am open for comments and criticisions to grow and develop a perfect system.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Doc
Another query, & I do hope you view this as academic, to improve my learning/understanding of your system/style & being a better at trading:
I am trying to put forth that PERCEPTION of inter-relation between currencies (or USD being the major driver)is creating a BIAS. And,if this bias were to be removed, trading could be more profitable.
You are of the view that no relation exists between (inter) markets (i.e. stock/currency, commodity/currency, etc), and if there appears to be any correlation, then it is purely conincidental.
However, you recommend (and yourself apply) that one should view the 6 pairs to determine price action in majors. For eg, you say that commodity pairs lead a rally & lag a fall(??); or that when Eur & Gbp rise, & Usd/Jpy (or den curr) also rise you say it is a contrarian move.
My dilemma - why do you have a bias towards USD? If Eur moves higher, why should you assume that Gbp would also rise and Jpy & Chf fall? Why not look at each pair in isolation? Why not accept that Eur rises vis-a-vis Usd - period. If you look for reasons for Eur rise, technicals & fundamentals can give plenty, so can your system. Why bring the correlations between different currencies, if you say there are no correlations between markets?
If you bring in this correlation, therfeore, bias, then if Eur is rising and Gbp is dropping (for whatever reason) one may not trade them because of the bias that both should move in tandem, and if they do not then it is a contrarian move - so what? Although you never specifically mentioned that one should not trade under such circumstances.
If you look at each currency pair, and apply your rules, would it not be easier to trade them profitably? Like yesterday, Usd/Jpy dropped - if one had applied your rules, profits could be raked in. But you were expecting a longer term rise to > 100, which could have created a bias? Did this prevent you from taking shorts?
Expectations, forecasts, correlations, etc tend to create a bias (and trigger emotions) - which is detrimental to trading. Look at PRICE ACTION (not levels), see what it is doing NOW and apply the trading rules.
You are right in teaching us to be emotionless while trading, so removing bias is equally important.
Would appreciate your comments.
Thanks and regards.