Operators' intentions read by 
EURO and GBP made the slide for second day and they have cut the lows and formed new low for the season.This induced selling was mainly to influence the long holders to close the buy positions they are holding without stop and also to induce them to take short.But the players know that traders may not short much after drop.But they also know the players have developed the bearish feel and willing to sell after first quick rise.
So after initial quick drop during start of japanese session EURO and GBP are expected to make upward stop hunt above high towards the close of Japanese session.then a slide from high to near low is expected during start of European session to suddenly reverse and spike up using some excuse from mid European session.Swing and rise moves are expected to reach middle levels of the wide range.
Tomorrow much awaited upward extended stop hunt move is expected and that could give good sell level in the trades.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
hello dr, is euro going to rise more than gbp to rise eur/gbp pair ? and what about usd/yen ?
Respected Dr,
Thanks for the detailed forecast here in blog.I didn’t read it before hence I asked, in webinar, about the focast in realtion to sart,mid and end of european session.
doc they have cut the lows now what?
Dear Doc,
What is your forecast of high and low for this month for GU? and when are these expected? Thanks and regards..
Before entering a trade based on Doc’s blog, review his concepts. Ask these questions:
1. Where is price now in relation to previous (session/day/week) low/high;
2. Has price cut the (referenced) low/high - apply the 10~30min / 30min~2hr rule;
3. What is the net change for the day/week - aply the net change rule;
4. For how long have prices dropped/risen (i.e. LL/LH or HH/HL) - apply the “hattrick” rule;
5. What should be done once the trade has been opened - apply the hedging rule;
6. Where should the profit level be set - apply the trailing stop rule and/or 35/75/90 pips rule; and
7. Most importantly - protect your trading account balance - i.e. do not overtrade and use prudent money management.
Have an indifferent attitude to the levels and quantum of drop/rise, to become emotionless and remain focused.
This steps should hopefully result in more profitable trades than losing trades.
Doc, anything crucial I have missed out?
If one follows these steps, I am sure trading
Hi Dr
Do you expect they could drop gbp below 16000 and that area is good to go long thx.
Regards
Arun Kandyal
I had shorted Gbp/Jpy (live a/c) on May 26 @ 151.21 and I closed it today @ 151.05. I am still holding lower level shorts. I will trade against those shorts to improve the level.
Lessons learned:
1. Patience pays dividends;
2. Price may or may not move back to your entry level, therefore, have a trade plan and trade the plan (as is often said)!
su25 which trading platform do you use, are you based in the UK ?
I use UK based DBFX trading platform.
Thanks SU25 for the detailed review!!.
In order to follow the Dr’s instructions and his weebbinars correctly, I would appreciate so much if someone briefly explains this 2 points:
- The net change rule
- The hattrick rule
Thanks a lot in adavance
Dear Doc,
what is going on in EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY are more than just dipping. It means that the traders are not willing to short or just not wanting to cover the longs?
Falling of the USDJPY hurts me because I am a position trader and having longs from slightly above 95.00. As the days goes it seems that we are very far away from the level of 96.00-97.00. When do you think USDJPY can go that level?
regards,
smith
My 5 cents worth advise…treat DOC’s prediction for Intra Day Trade with Set Profit Target & have 30 pips hedge order below the low or High. I have follow this rule & applied it successfully for more than a week & traded every day. My minimum target is 25pips a day & mostly cable in European session & entering into trade after 8.30 GMT.
regards
Josh
Hi doc thanks for webinar Great insight as usual. one question do you expect 1.6200 to be bust through in the rise for euro sess.
and SU25 i think you have it. I have followed those same rules and it pays with prudent strategy on s/l re £/y think will spike up nastily v soon 156 ish
Hi su25 DB proving to be good platform? i use FXCM and CMC i use former for all fx great clear charts and cmc for indices / metals not so clear charts but good news wire.
Could someone epxlain the hedging strategy? I have changed platform which enables hedging.
Dear Traders,
I was after Holy Grail & seeking the GBP levels from DOC to enter into a trade but now i look for his guidance in terms of his theory & logic behind it. (NOT NUMBERS OR LEVELS) This way i stay focused at my work of working out my Trade entry, Target & Stops/Hedges. One thing is sure that no one can predict the exact level but DOC’s Theory & great insight can guide in the right direction to trade. It is our duty as traders to do our home work, wait for the high or low,if you are trading breaks. & any level is breached in 30 minutes …go with the flow & score some pips. It is good to make 50 pips daily (& less risky) than waiting to score 250 trade once in a week. another 2 cents worth advise.
happy trading.
Regards
Josh
Dr, you didnt mention what we should expect in US session.
rgds
joshh. totally agree i used to trade exclusively strategic. but now have incorperated Sivaramns intraday into my strategic plays and can maximize the flows better. target 140 pips per day via 6/7 pairs min risk with overal strategic in play.
hi sue25
would you happen to have doc’s defenitions of the rules handy. and if you would be kind to post them. i would really appreciate it.
thank you
Chris
If G/Y goes to 156, I am happy as I can get out of a few longs and maybe take some shorts.
If it goes to 149, I am happy too as I can get out of a few shorts and maybe take some longs!
I am happy with volatility, therefore, I chose this pair. I have losing trades open all the time, and I trade against these trades. That also ensures that I stay focussed on one pair!
cjs I might have it totally arse backwards but see below. any comments would be appreciated. It came clearer to me when I read one of Siv’s transcripts from earlier this year.
1. Hi Lo asia net change to u.s. close to now. Will give sentiment
2. where they are holding at that time will give you idea of first player move.
3. If you are not in the move see what type it is. Rise/slide/spike
4. apply 10-30 min holding rule to fast moves and 30-120 min to slow or extended moves to see what would be you next indication of player move.
To decide wether to play b/s or s/b strategy look at trend and apply 10-30 min with 30 pip s/l and hedge— go from there.
Hatrick rule apparently is the players don’t do three move the same consecutively. (not relavent)
Su25 .. yeah nothing like a wrong position to focus the mind.!
Dear doc
i can’t help but think that most participants in this blog have been long for the past week and have continued buying on the way down as price has dropped for the past week with momentum..All the while as the drop has been fast they have been thinking it to be a false move, but 6/7days later the trend is still down. Would it not of been better to be selling the past week and booking profit as price is falling, rather to hang on to loosing long positions and adding to losing positions - if equity allows…
i think it is best to follow the market than predict and have to wait - as you said before - traders are kings (over the players) and the traders are currently determining where price is going….with so much negative sentiment the players cant rise it enough as the traders will jump in and sell again
Angela. All it is if you take pos. with 10-30 min rule you will have in place s/l . instead of having the s/l trigger have a hedge at 30 pips the other way, so if pos goes against you, you will be locked in at a 30 pip loss hedge. you would have to then review the market and decide which one to liquidate. or alternatively if its ranging like it is now you can hold both and chop them both in profit ( normal hedge but with a 30 pip spread as opposed to 1-5 pips)
travis. sentiment verses intraday. long argued depends on trding style. sell rally buy dips ……
thanks Chris - I’ll demo this for a couple of weeks.
Good idea Angela, its not my chosen route but at least it gives breathing space.
Crhis, su25 and everyone,
Thanks a lot for your posts.
I asume, we all agree that DOC’s theory and skills are really, really good and helpful. Since Dr’s method is different to everything else and he has his own particular vocab & way to teach us, I support the idea of sharing between us what we understand and interpret about his concepts. That way Dr. can identify our mistakes and correct them.
CJS
I do not agree that Doc’s theory and skills are really, ….good. For the simple reason that I have not tested it long enough to come to that conclusion. I agree that it is different. Yes, his overall concepts make sense once grasped, but one has to learn on their own as to how it should be adapted to their trading style. As for his forecast, I have no comment as I do not want to be influenced by anybody’s calls if I do not their their technique - in this case Doc’s algorithm.
No offense to anybody. I am giving an unbiased view.
CJS So many times you hear local traders running large losses and grabbing the first sight of profit when it comes out of the red. DR plan which I like alot is and I quote “trading with ease” limited risk /trailing stops/ stop at entry/ waiting for markets to change direction after sessions come in and out . all good common sense. Once you have the main qualities of his style , you can stretch out. As for forecast. a million and one chartest say this and that. and qualify with IF IT Does this. and afterwords Well it didnt do that. listen / read but you press the button.
CJS
Dr is providing this free service & normally reply promptly.so we need to give him credit for trying his best. He must be more precise in his paid service & will be explaining why he thinks the moves are what they are. I have trust in his theory as i like to trade breaks. I think,if we take on face value of what he think is & it May happen (not must) than we can take all the good things what Doc is offering. I must admit & thanks Doc for improving my performance.
One will trust something when it is working for him/her. so all people who has applied this & has not worked (me included when i was looking for cable to achieve a level as predicted by DOC) is dissatisfied. One needs to take holistic view & look for what mistake we did in the trade that did not work for us.
dr.doc
so now is the near low status?
tomorrow will be spiking up, n friday too?
thanks
just a ditty when it comes to FX in banks you have market making banks that must always have two way quotes and then you have institutions that dont. They speculate as we are on mkt movement. Then you have players that go into the markey willy nilly. they hit the market makers on a massive scale( say 5 to 10 times normal large traders position)at many large mkt making banks, which will filter through the market … this is the market sivaraman refers to.
Dear Doc,
What is usdjpy doing this week? Thanks again..
Dear Dr
Holding long in GBP at 6385 without hedging, what would be the solution to get out?
Dear Akbar
Both EURO/USD and USD/YEN are expected to rise today.we need to watch for the rise.
Regards
Dr.sivaraman
dear vinesh
when they cut the low and stay near then they could drop more ,but when they cut the low and come up quickly they are inducing the traders to make sell and buy swing trades and then to trap.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Angela double up here , make good average
Dear Mohi
i want to avoid giving long term forecast here- it appears such calls misguide traders.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear su25
your understanding and comprehension of the learning is very good.Glad that you are able to summarize now and then for the benefit of other readers.
I am happy about your intentions that you want to share knowledge.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Arun Kandyal
Yes if seen.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear smith
Patience is a virtue.You should see the position improving today.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Chris
Rising and dropping 100+ pips in gbp is just daily affair.it does not make one sided moves for long- so we will see the rise as well.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear freddie
I am expecting a rise or upward spike in EURO and GBP during US session.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear travis:
Players are well know to create market sentiments and change quickly.What appears in the market as sentiment is not true.Also I was telling to wait for the rise to short and buy and sel;l trades can be only strategic trade using hedging.I cannot do more than that.traders decisions are final as for as their accounts are concerned.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dr. i must say that medium to long term forecast you gave were very accurate. They were very good guidelines. As i don’t do intra day trading only swing and position i kept in mind every medium to long term forecast and i profited or break even for the last 15 trades. So in my opinion the medium to long term forecasts show your accuracy as many times the market tests the patience and also makes surprise moves and then recovers, so on a daily basis traders will doubt you when the market doesn’t move exactly like you said. July to august you said that we should see 1.58 - 1.60 low in gbp and 1.66 - 1.68 high in gbp and 1.37-1.35 low and 1.43-1.45 high in euro. I will trade those levels buy near the low or sell near the high, and if the going is not good i will double at every 150-250 pips one time and if the going is good stop break even and trail profit. It worked good for me until now, hope it will keep working.
Concerning Gbp/usd we had week beginning false move - a drop of 47 pips. Also today will be the third day of drop which is in conflict with the hat trick rule (players wont make the same moves 3 times), and last 2 Thursdays (25 june and 2 july) they also dropped around 40 and 90 pips and applying the hat trick rule we should see a rise on Thursday also. I’ve been taking notes of net changes from 15 of june and in 90% of the time it respected the rule, but that doesn’t mean that it’s guaranteed i think that i will need at least 3 months of observing to be a reliable tool to trade
Sorry to take this amount of space in answers, but remember the time eur and gbp rose huge, around 1100 pips in a month for gbp..i think in may, when traders and analyst were seeing levels like 1.72 or 1.75. It was a very strong bullish sentiment…and now we can see speculated levels like 1.58 1.56 because there is a deep bearish sentiment.So, a sudden change of a strong sentiment in less than a month. This is regarding the bull/bear sentiment induced in the market which by dr. rules is a false sentiment induced by players. All we can say is damn our emotions:)
Dear rebecca
In a week the players donot carry the sentiments for long - so I am expecting the surprise move today and tomorrow.If the rise does not happen to be extended stop hunt then it will be extended move and the players might squeeze on the upside.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
From the good Dr’s website:
Hedging is a simple trading practice, when provision is available, to take positions in opposite directions in the same pair. So the short and long positions will prevent the equity erosion in any volatile market condition as they protect each other positions. To release the blocked money from hedging is the only solution needed-it is offered by us in Professional Trading Training.
It is considered, by many, without knowing or purposely to prevent the traders making profits from trades, as blockage of the dead equity. Therefore, many platform providers don’t offer this. They instead suggest to hold 2 a/cs and take opposite positions in that a/c s to trade either way - a similar situation to Hedging, but that is really not the case. When the market goes for extended rise or correction, any one a/c will get margin call unless the loss making position is closed. Moreover, if the profit is not booked in the other position, during market swing the profit can also get eroded and end up defeating the very purpose of using hedging. So holding 2 a/c s will not give the right solution.
The platform providers who don’t offer hedging facility often give hedging in related pair as solution. But the spread of moves in different pairs are not the same .The operators many at times move the similar pairs like Euro and GBP in opposite direction to bring volatility in their crosses. Therefore, it is important to understand the full utilization of hedging to protect equity and to use as a possibility to make either way trading profit.
Advance hedging
This is another facility of selecting the hedging level in advance instead of a stop. Once the position is taken in any direction, the advance hedging can be placed as traders order by selecting the stop / limit facility by clicking on the pair in the deal station. Once the order is placed it will be seen in the trader’s order window. If filled, the hedging position will appear in the position window. Now, in your absence hedging can be done. This will facilitate you to do other work during trading.You can always continue the trading once you become available for trading.
Personally I don’t double up, cause I tend to get carried away and turn into the martingale machine…
Dear doc.
Is the upward move in GBP and EURO are real or false moves as it commenced during the gap time?
Many Thanks
Well, for me EURUSD just perfectly correlates with stock markets. And that’s it!
Dear Doc,
hardly any chance for rebound in USDJPY… just 3 days stop hunting, endless. But the intention has revealed, the players wanted to make a new low in it creating panic.
What is your opinion beside that it will rise? level of 94.50 or 95.00 or what else?
regards,
smith
Hi Dr
Is it possible for an update on what’s happened and what could happen for the rest of the session? Many thanks.
That livened things up a bit
Yeah it did.. I had closed my hedging shorts, and opend up new longs on G/J and GU- was up about 50 pips in each– left for ~45min, returned and found my acct under margin call!!!
all you need to do is follow the price - then there isnt any stress and panic, of course price will bounce but it has been nothing but sell rallies for a week
Jefe. I had to take some evasive action was long in au $y n cable think my blood pressure went off the scale . maneged to come out +11. someghow
Wrong levels today..
not if u were short
surely it doesnt matter if sentiment is true or not. the best option is to trade in the direction of price. i think you will find in moves such as these the traders determine where price goes….why does it matter if it is not true - the aim is to make pips. price has fallen 1000pips this week in pound/yen - no one knows where it will turn - no one!
Dear Doc,
how do you comment this really huge extended downward stop hunt in USDJPY?
regards,
smith
Hi Dr
We now have such a bearish feel and most of the technicals are declaring eur and gbp bearish. Would this not imply the players aim to rise big? As I understand it your call is for a rise then a big drop then a bigger riser for last 2 weeks of the month.
Is it possible that the big drop is happening now? Would be good to know what you think is happening now and has your forecast changed in any way? Many thanks.
Dear Constantin Lucian
I understand your requirement - and I will try to give that suitably once during the reversal times and on daily in reply to so many questions.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Chris,
I’m more mad at myself than anything else.. (FWIW my margin actually hit 170%– AND I got emotional –took unrecoverable loss) I’m mad because ALL week VSA signals have said sell sell sell and on the 4hr they still scream sell sell sell…(and throughout the week I continued to hold for 1.42, 1.66/1.56/ & 98 I “thought” the bottom had hit– until I realized the level of the S&P…I’ve had this acct since Nov 08…
i feel the rise is coming!!
Dear ejthekkan
gap time moves are false moves and if they donot cut the high in 30 min from the start of the session we read
they intend to drop.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear smith
it is extended drop - extrended stop hunt means they drop big and rise big in less than 30 min.
Regards
Dr.sivaraman
jefe. its not easy to convince . but you have to be mad and then put it away in a box marked , do not open and then trade when you feel calm again… i’ve done this myself in the past lose 600 pips in 1 day chased the loss lost 400 more, tied myself in all kinds of knots. in the end had to go on holiday . came back after alot of deliberation. its a trial by fire this game. hope your okm though. i,ve done this game since 1980 and sometimes it can hurt.