Operators' intentions read by 
Yesterday a massive drop was done to induce all level buyers in currencoes and commodities to cut loss their positions by induced fear,
Today after brief drop during start of the japanese session EURO and GBP are expected to firm up to go above yesterday high.Then a slide expected from high during early European session with swings to induce the long holders to book profit in a hurry.During mid European session when BOE announcement comes the market is expected to suddenly turn the sentiment to bullish and an extended stop hunt ( =a gain of 150-250 pips and drop to the level it started) extended rise (= a gain of 150-250 pips and hold the higher level till day close) is expected.
Swing and rise move is expected during US session.
More wide range swings are expected for week end.Trade without fear and with strategies to limit risk or watch and understand the moves and that will help you to understand the game play of the players to do better trades next time when they do massive moves.USD/YEN and YEN crosses are also expected to make quick recovery during that time.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
mz
TI have tried to sumarise few of Doc’s teachings(??):
- Watch the live market quote page at http://www.i-knowindices.com/saxo_bank.htm
- Trade calmly and patiently
- Do not chase price & Do not enter trades based on emotions
- All currency pairs are tradeable
- Sole purpose of trading should be to earn profits
- Gap time moves are false moves
- Moves 30 mins before data release/important announcement are false moves
- Players do not hit a hat-trick (i.e. do not drop/rise for more than 2 consecutive days)
- Take a sell position near the high set for the day/session
- Take a buy position near the low set for the day/session
- Once profit is seen in an order, put stop at entry and trail every 30 pips
- Always place hedging order. If the hedging order is hit, and starts making profit within 30 mins, then remove (cut loss) on the original order and trail stops on the hedging order
- False move is a quick move towards (without cutting) the previous high/low
- Stop hunt is a quick move which cuts the previous high/low and goes back below/above the high/low
- Extended stop hunt is for 200 pips
- Daily range for Euro 150 pips. weekly net change is 350 pips, and monthly net change is 600 (??) pips
- Daily net change for GBP is 250 pips, weekly net change is 600 pips, and monthly net change is 1200 (??) pips
- Weekly net change for denominator currencies (USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD) is 450 pips and for AUD/USD it is 300 pips
- 10~30 mins rule
- 30 mins~2 hrs rule
- Forecasts are based on algorithm
- Reading operators’ intention is based on their action of the past few days (derived from high/low and net change noted for past few days from the live market quote page)
- One sided moves can be seen in denominator currencies for 2-3 days
- USD/CAD is the leading indicator
- AUD/USD rises slowly but drops fast
- AUD/USD leads during the rise, but during trend reversal, it lags (??)
- During trend reversal Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd will see an extended stop hunt but will not be followed by AUD/USD
- Watch all 6 pairs for 30 mins at start of session
The pips levels for different terminology like stop hunt, extended move, false move, etc. are given by Doc in one of his posts. I do not want to be influenced (biased) by these levels, therefore, I have not made a note of the levels. If anybody is interested they could do a search of this blog.
This list is only a recap, and details can be searched in this blog.
Doc, as always, please edit, if required.
Dear Dr.Sivaraman,
good day.
I also expect a rise at this point and I hope it will come but I think EUR and GBP don’t have the power to reach highs at 1,44 and 1,66 soon again.
My opinion is that we could se 1,41 - 1,42 and 1,62 -1,63 before a new drop.
I know players have their strategy but you can notice that now S&P is on a important support at 875 / 880 points.
It seems like it has broken the support, I believe it will bounce above that level but then it will break it again and fall further.So EUR and GBP could do, and areas 1,35 and 1,55 could be seen during this summer.
What is your opinion?
Regards,
thank you su25
you are very kind
thank you again very much for your time
your help is appreciated
Hi Dr
Would you still advise to wait for the rise to sell in gbp and eur. Is the drop still expected on Fri and then a much bigger rise or have we seen the drop? Many thanks.
Good morning doc. awaiting this spike in cable . still good longs attainable yesterday. I myself cannot see 1.66 £ at best before yesterdays S/H I was looking at 1.6340/47 hence my question about racing through 1.62fig I personally think any spike would be triggered off US jobless, they hate them figs at mom, they cant talk them good.
Dear su25
you are tracking my concepts so well and put into practice to see the success rate and then suggesting others in the form of recap.thanks for the help as i know you only as su25.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Francesco
currencies donot have life to show any power to rise or drop.The players have the power.They need to mind to rise or drop.So in their earning process they do make big drop followed by big rise.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
dear Nazali
The big rise is expected today and I will read and give the update after the rise whether one can short or not based on the type of move.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Chris
The rise and fall are nothing to do with US or UK economic conditions.The economy does not change from second to second where as the market levels change.So calmly look at market as tradable market- when dropped buy and when rised book profit or vice versa .
Regards
Dr.sivaraman
i think they did the stop hunt for GBP/GPY at this time 151.19
Dear Doc,
what level do you think the USDJPY can recover? Just recover some and falling again, or it can reach the level of 95.00?
Generally, after some kind of hit the USDJPY recover to the same levels or above when the extended drop started (like in March or in last Dec).
Thanks in advance
regards,
smith
I may have got it wrong, but if Doc’s expctation of rise in Eur & Gbp is 150~200 pips, it does not imply that the same is true for Gbp/Jpy or other crosses, given that Doc expects a recovery (rise) in Usd/Jpy.
To illustrate this: assume Gbp is @ 1.61 and Jpy @ 93.0 If Gbp goes up by 200 pips to 1.63 and Jpy by 150 pips to 94.5 then Gbp/Jpy will go to 154 or a rise of 430 pips from 149.7 So please take this into consideration while deriving levels for crosses.
Dear Dr.Sivaraman,
I hope you are right as you often are, please update the situation as soon as you see some important changes as I believe many of us are patiently holding EUR and GBP from 1,40 and 1,62 and waiting for them to recover.
I also thank you su25 for your support, we always appreciate mutual support on this pages and I am sure Dr.Sivaraman do agree as well
yes su25 you are right but generally speaking when USDJPY rises EUR and GBP go in the same direction
If there will be a recover of the market, maybe it will first be against the dollar, and then against the yen, just like it has happened during this week beginning fall.
Dear smith
They are expected to make extended rise in usd/yen.
regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Su25,
You have done a wonderful job by summarising all the concepts of Dr. Siva.
Thanks
Hy su25:
I really appreciate your sumarize, could you extend and explain a litlle bit the:
- 10~30 mins rule
- 30 mins~2 hrs rule
Thanks and Regards
hello,
can any one let know how to make use of net change ?
Does anyone know which brokers will allow hedge in the same account after the 1st of august when the regulaction starts?
Thanks all
Doc I remember you mentioned a few months ago in your forcasts that USD/YEN might reach 123. Do you still stand by and if so what should we expect from USD/YEN in the short. Will we see 100, 101, 102?
Dear vinesh
yes expected.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Excellent calls Dr.Sivaraman, I was anticipating at least some of this as well after the pound got mugged over the last 48 hours. Already banked 200pips profit and watching for a possible reversal today during NY - Earnings season may throw some cold water on this rally at any time.
Dear Doc and vinesh,
I also remember the forecast in USDJPY but what about the time frame? Level of 123 is so far from here, but the level of 98 - 100 can be reachable till end of July?
After suck kind of drop which was yesterday sometimes a 300-500 pip rally can come? Is this interpretation right?
what do you think Doc?
regards,
smith
As of right now, the 1.6260-80 seems like the barrier for further gains, 1 mini-lot left to go here. If the resistance is broken, I fully anticipate severe resitance at 1.63-1.6320 to be a cap (formerly trendline support, now turned resistance) on the hourly.
Dear Jason Macko
thanks.thanks for your input.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear smith
When players have done massive downward stop hunt ans accumulate all the longs- they rise in a hurry trapping the short sellers and give to them quickly at higher levels.In this process like bouncing ball the currency pair is expected to rise quickly- the one sided rise.then we will get so many stories for the moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman