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Downward and upward stop hunt moves for a day

Posted on July 16, 2009 at 7:29 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

As explained during Asian session :Live market analysis EURO and GBP were near high set for the day and made the drop towards close of Japanese session.

After some swings during gap time and start of European session EURO and GBP are expected to rise during European session. A quick drop and further rise are expected during US session.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

39 Responses to “Downward and upward stop hunt moves for a day”

on 16 Jul 2009 at 7:54 am1Fevargas

Hi Dr

What do you expect for the USDJPY today?

Thanks and Regards
on 16 Jul 2009 at 8:04 am2glen

Dear Dr.

Could you share your opinion on AUD? Can AUD overcome the resistance zone around 0.8060 finally?

Many thanks!
on 16 Jul 2009 at 9:37 am3vinesh

Doc, what are your views on UCAD have we seen the low for the week?
on 16 Jul 2009 at 9:42 am4Joseph

Hello Dr

I am benefiting from your comments each day, but I’m confused by your forecasts of rise and drop sometimes.

One suggestion, if you could include the market bias for the day (Up or Down) it would be easier to put the rest of your forecast in the proper context.

Thanks for your help.

Best regards,

Joseph
on 16 Jul 2009 at 9:58 am5Ganesh

Hi Dr.,

I went short on GBPUSD @ 1.6350 according to stochastic day before yesterday. I do not see it decreasing now. Shall I close my trade, or wait for it to decrease?

Thank you.
on 16 Jul 2009 at 10:51 am6travis

Hello Doc,
great informative and call again in the webinar. Price has shot up and i had bought down near the low..100+pips.

One more question, that i dont understand - is what is meant be some swings, i understand rise and drops and slides (is slow drop i think) but swing i am not sure(is it in tight range?)

thanks
Travis
on 16 Jul 2009 at 11:14 am7Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Fevargas
Slow rise.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 11:15 am8Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear glen

yes
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 11:16 am9Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear vinesh
near low may be tested quickly and reverse to go above high.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 11:19 am10Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Joseph
I am giving the calls with simple language.You want me to add derived attributes and the market really not having any such thing.When initial low and then high are being breached what bias you may suggest?
I request you to view the market in unbiased condition without any sentiments then you will understand the moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 11:21 am11Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Ganesh
I cannot give in this blog replies and solutions to personal trades.
Still - when they dip next time try to close near entry.

Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 11:23 am12Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear travis
thanks.An up and a down or a down and an up within the range of high and low is called swing.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 11:27 am13travis

just one other thing respected doctor.
today during japan session price slowly dropped and now as you where explaining we could expect a rise - now it just shot up really fast in the direction we expect - however you say fast moves are false moves - however isnt this the move we are expecting?
on 16 Jul 2009 at 11:40 am14Constantin Lucian

Good day dr. i was wondering if we will see new season highs in eur and expect another week rise for eur and gbp doesn’t that mean that we should see drop in usd chf. How will the players handle that? From what i know usd chf will go up and should go upper than 1.1. How will they manage to rise eur and usd chf overall? Thank you for your time
on 16 Jul 2009 at 11:53 am15Arun Kandyal

Hi Dr
Great forecast today, market is just moving as you said in your todays webnair. i closed my long with profit.Do you expect they can cut the low again during gap time or us session and it is wise to go long again near low and below the low thx for your kind support.

Regards
Arun Kandyal
on 16 Jul 2009 at 11:55 am16Francesco

Dear Dr.Sivaraman,

do you think is a good idea to buy USDCHF?
Or better to wait for lower levels?

Regards,
on 16 Jul 2009 at 12:02 pm17j.j

Dear Dr. Sivaraman hi, first i would like to thank you for all the hard good work you doing by helping all the traders to understand the market how it works ,my 2nd thing i want yr adv. are we now watching new uptrend in Euro move against the $ or we are still in the reversal trend ,and pls adv what range we can see now between the upside and the down side, thank you so much for yr adv.
B.Regrads
on 16 Jul 2009 at 12:47 pm18Rich

Dang, did you know EUR would go this high?
My last lot trailed out after 1 stop move. No complaints at all as I took some off at different levels but I didn’t know where to take them off, I just winged.I would rather be a trader than a guesser. Any help here or just more experience.
Now I have to learn how to deal with 50 plus pip moves in my favor and maximizing them. Poor me. You have changed my world almost overnight.
on 16 Jul 2009 at 12:50 pm19Rich

I meant GBP but what the heck.
on 16 Jul 2009 at 12:59 pm20Neil

Hello Doc, whats your thinking on euro? can we see again the levels like 1.60? Macro is again getting in bad shape, talk of dollar gaining big time again in coming weeks?
on 16 Jul 2009 at 1:01 pm21Chris

Good calls as per usual thanks. now GBP has hit new highs do you expect small pull back to rise again.?
on 16 Jul 2009 at 2:14 pm22sean m

Doc, with the bad bad news for the US do you still see and rise for the US session today?
on 16 Jul 2009 at 2:15 pm23Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear travis
Now you can see the result of fast move - hence I mentioned downward stop hunt and then upward stop hunt later swings during us session - a drop and rise within high and low.

TOMORROW UPWARD GAP OPENING ABOVE HIGH IS EXPECTED DURING JAPANESE SESSION.

Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 2:17 pm24Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Constantin Lucian

they will alternatively rise euro and usd/chf - like how they are rising euro and usd/yen.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 2:18 pm25Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Arun Kandyal
Thanks for the appreciation.
you can go long near low.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 2:19 pm26Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco
When the low is not cut for 30 min when the market is near low you can buy.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 2:21 pm27Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear j.j
Thanks.
We could see the rise in euro till end August- an upward shift in trading zone is expected.the range has to be decided by the panic short coverers.we will estimate once they go above season high.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 2:24 pm28Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Rich
Tomorrow I will be presenting ‘Tracking the forex market together part I and II during European session.There I will explain how to enter and exit from the market and to limit risk and maximize the profit.
learn to control your emotions then the understanding will become better and simple.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 2:27 pm29Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Neil
Long term projections are just expectations and they may come but after how long would not have been explained.You may not be able to hold the position indefinitely for tham.Focus on short intra-day trends and trend reversals to do intra-day swing trades successfully rather than deaming of the long term and lose the short term trades.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 2:28 pm30Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Chris

thanks and yes.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 2:29 pm31Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear sean m

watch the US session and understand how bad news could be discounted.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 16 Jul 2009 at 3:15 pm32sean m

“watch the US session and understand how bad news could be discounted.”

I don’t understand what you mean by this?
on 16 Jul 2009 at 3:21 pm33jacob

hey doc

what is usd/cad rise expectation this week, it really got dumped.
on 16 Jul 2009 at 3:43 pm34Henry

Thanks for the great info doc. I just recently started following your blog. My question is kind of off the forex path but could some of your views be used in the futures mkt? Particularly the low/high not being broken for certain time period
on 16 Jul 2009 at 4:22 pm35Neil

thanks Doc, so short term u expect more rise in euro? i dont have any position, shud buy now?
on 16 Jul 2009 at 4:46 pm36TheRumpledOne

When the low is not cut for 30 min when the market is near low you can buy.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman

=====================================

1) How many pips is “near”?

2) You gave daily net change of 150 pips for EU and 250 pips for GU. What are the weekly net change figures?

Thanking You in Advance.
on 16 Jul 2009 at 4:46 pm37Ahmed

Respected Dr,
Please do explain in tomorrow’s webinars how to handle the hedge order once it is triggered.Of course, if it doesn’t do any damage to your premium service.
Regards
on 16 Jul 2009 at 5:15 pm38jefe

TRO-

I have taken many notes…

Weekly on EU is 350
Weekly on GU is 600

Take a sell position near the high set for the day/session
- Take a buy position near the low set for the day/session
- Once profit is seen in an order, put stop at entry and trail every 30 pips
- Always place hedging order. If the hedging order is hit, and starts making profit within 30 mins, then remove (cut loss) on the original order and trail stops on the hedging order
- False move is a quick move towards (without cutting) the previous high/low
- Stop hunt is a quick move which cuts the previous high/low and goes back below/above the high/low
- Extended stop hunt is for 200 pips
- Daily range for Euro 150 pips. weekly net change is 350 pips, and monthly net change is 600 (??) pips
- Daily net change for GBP is 250 pips, weekly net change is 600 pips, and monthly net change is 1200 (??) pips
- Weekly net change for denominator currencies (USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD) is 450 pips and for AUD/USD it is 300 pips
- 10~30 mins rule
- 30 mins~2 hrs rule
on 16 Jul 2009 at 6:13 pm39TheRumpledOne

Thanks Jefe:

If you use MT4, send me an email therumpledone AT gmail DOT com.

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