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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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Swing and slide moves are expected before next rise

Posted on July 21, 2009 at 3:33 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

EURO and GBP were making higher level swings and upward stop hunt moves for week beginning.

They are expected to swing near high during early Japanese session and slide.Then a quick rise and slide moves are expected during European session.

During US session a quick downward move and rise are expected.

I will explain the nature of moves and the market readings during my Asian session: Live market analysis today between 05:00-05:30 GMT.

The link to register for the same is given below:

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=b104a0d2-bc0f-4546-ad4a-09d14cef0bf2

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

58 Responses to “Swing and slide moves are expected before next rise”

on 21 Jul 2009 at 4:12 am1Kevin

Hi doc, are you expecting a quick rise start of European session or a gap time drop and throughout early euro session then a quick reversal rise? thank you.
on 21 Jul 2009 at 5:42 am2NextLevelFX

Dear Doctor, i asked you this question in the webinar but i did not undestand your answer. I can’t tell from Net Change the players intentions so could you please explain how you see it and why can’t it be the other way?
Thank you.
on 21 Jul 2009 at 5:46 am3mik

dr, just curious to know, do you think the solar eclipse on Wed will have a significant impact on human’s trading decision July 22?

Thanks and regards.
on 21 Jul 2009 at 5:50 am4Rich

When you say swing and slide, does that mean cutting new high or low?
on 21 Jul 2009 at 5:56 am5Venky

Doc
What do you mean by a week beginning false move? Is that something that the Players typically do i.e., during the latter part of the week, they do the opposite of what they did at the beginning of the week?
on 21 Jul 2009 at 8:29 am6Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Kevin
you can watch how the moves are happening.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 8:31 am7Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear mik
there are various studies to prove that cosmic rays have telling effect on weak minded human - like new moon day time the aggressive behavior of mentally ill people.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 8:32 am8Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Rich
cutting low.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 8:35 am9Rich

Sorry, I meant does the term slide mean that it will cut a new low or stay above it. But thanks, I get it.
on 21 Jul 2009 at 8:53 am10Chris

Hi Dr . re Gbp do you think this low is set for euro session and will rise?
on 21 Jul 2009 at 8:54 am11George

Dear Dr.,

The players are dropping GBP (120 pips) but holding the EUR to handle the EUR/GBP. What do you expect them to do next, to further drop both GBP and EUR or something more extravagant?

Thank you for all the hard work with the trader community! It is highly appreciated!
on 21 Jul 2009 at 9:04 am12su25

Dear Doc
Since start of European session, low on Gbp was 1.6427, now it has been cut to 1.6413, but price moved back above 1.6427 within the 30 min. Does this mean it was a stop hunt?
You are expecting a fall today, and net change not yet reached the permissible limit. Is buy/sell above 1.6445 (which is the high in the 30 min slot) a safe trade with hedging?
Thanks and regards.
on 21 Jul 2009 at 9:05 am13carlab

Dr. Sivaraman: I am getting and adicted to your calls which I find very helpfull. Tks very much. There is something though I disagree on your thoughts: You said, or I understood it wrong,that stock and ccy. markets do not have a correlation. In my opinion, last few months there has been a high correlation between USD, JPY weakeness, and AUD,CAD,EUR strength with higher stock markets. And the opposite. Can anyway ask you your views for July-August in both markets, let’s say S&P and EUR/USD? Thanks very much.
on 21 Jul 2009 at 9:41 am14Rich

Does the 30 ish pip slide in the EUR/USD conclude the slide. Or is it just swinging up before another slide.

Is a slide “usually” a certain amount of pips. I know it is not exact but is it usually at least X number or so?
Or do we go back to the 30 min rule?
on 21 Jul 2009 at 9:44 am15Rich

ohh, or does it get preceded by a stop hunt?
on 21 Jul 2009 at 9:50 am16balanced

I respects to the majors - why was Monday a false move and did Tuesday sell off? Is the hat trick not two days of same way move? What let you know that Tuesday was a slide down as opposed to a rise?
on 21 Jul 2009 at 9:55 am17Mohi

Dear Doc,

What is your expectation for gbpusd this week? What sort of level could we see? 1.7 level? Thanks and regards..
on 21 Jul 2009 at 10:43 am18Arun Kandyal

Hi Dr
Gbp Is droping .Do you expect gbp could go 1.6350 during us session and go long from that level is a good strategy.and Could you please explain Pump and dump moves and dump and pump moves.Is It Rise And Drop[Pump And Dump]Or Drop And Rise[Dump And Pump].Thx

Regards
Arun Kandyal
on 21 Jul 2009 at 10:46 am19Neil

hey Doc, since yday euro is struggling to break 1.42, psychological level and then again coming up, today again it went below broke the earlier low and then again came up and holding near high? So what you are expecting breaking the low is done, now should we wait for a next rise? Many thanks
on 21 Jul 2009 at 10:55 am20Francesco

Good day Dr.Sivaraman,

are you expecting EUR and GBP to pullback around 1,41XX and 1,63XX before a new rise and new highs for the seasons?

Regards,
on 21 Jul 2009 at 10:56 am21Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Rich ,su25& George

Further drop is expected during early US session.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 10:59 am22Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear carlab
Please continue to find the relationships among markets - you will later fins they are coincidences and not real correlations.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 11:02 am23Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Rich
the spread of the swings depend upon the momentum.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 11:03 am24Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Mohi
There could be a rise in GBP from mid week.
Regards
dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 11:04 am25Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Arun Kandyal
next level drop during US session the buy opportunity prevails.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 11:05 am26Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Neil
there could be a drop and rise in EURO below low.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 11:06 am27Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco

tomorrow Japanese session drop time we could see around the expected levels and then the rise.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 11:20 am28Rich

so a swing off a new low is not the time to enter long? We want to see it hold the new low within just a few pips?
on 21 Jul 2009 at 11:32 am29vinesh

Doc so is it safe to say eu might not hit the previous lows established a month ago and that UCAD may not rise at previous high/
on 21 Jul 2009 at 11:40 am30johnra

Dear Dr
The move we just saw-11.30 GMT.Did we see a sharp downward stophunt in GU and now are we on a rise?
Kind Regards
on 21 Jul 2009 at 12:01 pm31Francesco

Thank you Dr.Sivaraman,

do you expect USDCAD to fall more?

Regards
on 21 Jul 2009 at 12:14 pm32Rich

I’m getting it……
I’m getting it………
I’m not getting it…….
But I am doing it patiently and calmly.
on 21 Jul 2009 at 12:29 pm33Neil

ok thank you, reverse of your expectation is happening, cutting the high.. may be first they will firm up and then slide
on 21 Jul 2009 at 1:12 pm34Neil

Surprise for everyone……..
on 21 Jul 2009 at 1:21 pm35George

Neil

Now let’s hope that this is the gap-time false move and not intended one.
on 21 Jul 2009 at 1:24 pm36Chris

is everyone short gbp?
on 21 Jul 2009 at 1:25 pm37Neil

George, could be false move, euro is rising, so as doc says, trade in small lots.. so as u can sell more… watch calmly and patiencefully…market means surprise.. and one thing always remember ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN, ANYTHING…
on 21 Jul 2009 at 1:26 pm38Neil

i dont trade gbp as it is very thin pair, you see the dollar index , maximum % is euro, so trade always where there is ample liquidity
on 21 Jul 2009 at 1:31 pm39George

Neil

Could you please suggest a good source of dollar index info? Thanks in advance!
on 21 Jul 2009 at 1:44 pm40Neil

go to nybot site, this is part of ICE exchange, there you will get, otherwise do the googling, you will definitely get it. thanks
on 21 Jul 2009 at 2:01 pm41Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Rich

calmly watch the market and trade- if you become impulsive then a small move in the market will trigger your fear and you may continue to ask question for every pip move.
Contol emotions to become calm trader to earn from the market.
Regards
Dr.sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 2:03 pm42Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear vinesh
when you try to relate the market like this you may not be able to do swing trade- you know well the players hit the stops either way and close by stops they fill and during that time the high or low are set.
Regards
Dr.sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 2:04 pm43Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear johnra
they made the rise during gap time to drop after the session.We could see more swing and swing and small firming up towards close.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 2:06 pm44Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Neil

Every quick move could create surprise in the market - but try to relate to data release,speech or gap time then you will be able to calmly trade with less or nil surprise.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 2:08 pm45Chris

Hi doc , so your expecting this us sess to swing only high and lows already created by europe
on 21 Jul 2009 at 2:28 pm46Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Chris

After gap time upward stop hunt they are holding near low to cut the low from mid session (15;30 GMT approx.) and slide till close slowly.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 2:50 pm47Chris

Bernanke going to talk the dollar up?
on 21 Jul 2009 at 2:53 pm48Neil

OK Do, thank you, the way it was looking, first they made upward move and now they came below the earlier high, so surely looks like they will drop and cut the low.
on 21 Jul 2009 at 2:54 pm49johnra

Thank you Dr its a great feeling to be associated with you.
Kind Regards
on 21 Jul 2009 at 2:59 pm50Chris

thanks Doc. have a beer on me. ( or whatever your tipple is)
on 21 Jul 2009 at 3:32 pm51mstandifer

Dear Dr.

If we choose to play the slide (or any slide that might last for the remainder of a session) to the end of the US session, do you recommend a particular time to exit or is there a preference for exiting at a common support/price level.

Regards,
Marc
on 21 Jul 2009 at 4:21 pm52Nazali

Hi Dr

i think a major change like slide not rise should have had an updated post. The recommendation was suitable buys in US session which is now not the case. It seems like you expect possibly quite a drop through to the Jap session.
on 21 Jul 2009 at 4:36 pm53Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear mstandifer

the slide has lead Euro and GBP to reach near low.Once they cut the low and come above earlier low in less than 30 min then cutting low was a downward stop hunt before rise- if they cut the low and stay below low for more than 30 min then more long liquidation will be induced before the next rise.
Watch and decide based on time taken near low.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 4:38 pm54Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Nazali
I have given the update in the form of a reply to question so that that will be less attractive and those who want will read and act. if I make a post then many might take positions by chance and the players might slightly change the trend.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 21 Jul 2009 at 4:50 pm55Nazali

Hi Dr

Ok that quite fair, I made the note as you normally give a new post when the forecast changes so much.
on 21 Jul 2009 at 6:05 pm56hugme

doc,you are real master.
could u elaborate on the length of gap time as in an open day to avoid any misunderstanding.TKS.
on 22 Jul 2009 at 2:37 am57su25

Dear Doc
Gbp - Low (1.6384) made in yesterday’s European session, which were re-visited in US session but not cut. Now around 1.6396, about 12 pips above previous day/session low. Net change is -65. How to interpret this data, in the absence of the algorithm?
Thanks and regards.
on 22 Jul 2009 at 4:00 am58Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear su25
They are formed during lower level swings and downward stop hunt lows .We could see another downward stop hunt below to hit the stops of the lower level long holders and then rise today.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman

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