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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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Swing and rise moves for a day

Posted on July 28, 2009 at 3:30 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

EURO and GBP made the rise yesterday during japanese and European sessions and finally during US session they made wide range swings without further rise,could be due to traders taken buy positions after rise.

Today EURO and GBP are expected to firm up with swings during Japanese and Early European session and make quick rise from mid European session onwards.Dip and rise moves are expected during US session.

I will explain the expected moves and trading suggestions during my Asian session: Live market Analysis webinar between 05:00-05:30 GMT.

The link to register for the webinar is given below:

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=0308d9d7-04e1-423c-b318-d654c6a7b5cf

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

67 Responses to “Swing and rise moves for a day”

on 28 Jul 2009 at 4:37 am1smith

Dear Doc,

what levels can be reached in USDCHF as a denominator currency in the coming weeks? Will it rise parallel to the EUR and GBP or we will see more downward move as the EUR, GBP heading for higher level?

thanks in advance,
smith
on 28 Jul 2009 at 5:00 am2Kevin

Hi Doc, do you expect the E and G highs of yesterday to be broken today? thanks again for all your continued support and amazingly accurate calls!
on 28 Jul 2009 at 5:34 am3Chris

Morning Dr missed Webinar is E/GBP cross going to make any major moves today.
on 28 Jul 2009 at 6:08 am4Neil

Hey Doc, good call. Keep it up. Euro has not breached yday high yet, do u expect to hit it today 1.43?
Thank you
on 28 Jul 2009 at 6:34 am5Poonam

Doc,
You are undoubtedly teaching people to get rid of fear. However it will help us further if you can give some examples of extraordinary specific Asian/European/US
sessions during last one to two years where the price went up or down and did not return for months thereby creating big drawdowns and fear for traders.
We want to learn about such situations and take care. My
father told me that the way US dollar appreciated one way between July and October was specifically carried out probably by players to bust options worth trillion dollars as a result of carry trades. He said I should be prepared for such a situation as there was no way for traders to get reliable information about OTC options. Only market makers (not even market operators) have access to such
information. Based on your experience do u think that is what happened?
Anyway, please give us advice on how should we deal with such a situation and how can we really identify one.
on 28 Jul 2009 at 6:35 am6Francesco

Good day Dr. Sivaraman,

what expectations do you have for tomorrow?
Do you think is safe to wait for EUR 1,4350 - 1,44 and close the longs opened yesterday at 1,4220?

In case EUR can reach those levels today or tomorrow, would it make sense to open a sell position?
Players might trap traders again at those prices before further rise?

Regards
on 28 Jul 2009 at 7:18 am7Ahmed Hanif

Hi doctor do you think that we can see 1.10 level in Usd/Cad this week.

Regards,

Ahmed Hanif
on 28 Jul 2009 at 8:37 am8su25

Poonam
My 2 cents - what happened during Jul~Oct ‘08 could be due to several reasons - Doc may say multi-year trend reversal, another may say options related, and yet others will say carry trade unwinding, deleveraging, global crisis, credit crunch, risk aversion, etc. In short, each will give a different reason depending on what appeals to that person.
Your main concern is, and should be, how to deal with not only such situations where the market moved by 2000~3000 pips, but also how to deal with movements of 50, 100 or more pips. Well, it truly depends on your money management and your individual trading style. Do you trade with stops, or with hedging or stop & reverse or …..?? What do you want to do to limit your risk and maximise your profit on each trade? Again, you will find many ways to limit risk, ultimately you have to decide based on what appeals to you, what comforts you, what trading hours you keep, what is your trading account size, what is your risk appetite, what is your experience in dealing with market movements/surprises, how do you respond emotionally to such movements, etc. as what works for one may not work for everyone!
on 28 Jul 2009 at 8:53 am9maxi

looks like downward stop hunt in g-u…
on 28 Jul 2009 at 10:16 am10travis

Hi Doc
any chance of pound/yen rising by 12gmt or can it cut yesterdays high @157.45 and make new highs, or will it break below 156?
cheers
on 28 Jul 2009 at 10:19 am11mohi

Dear Doc,

Why is there lack of movement in gu lately? It is not moving at all for last 2/3 days i think. Are they absorbing all sale positions? Kind regards..
on 28 Jul 2009 at 11:15 am12Constantin Lucian

Hello Dr. what level can be a sell in AUD/USD ? and also in what range can we see usd/cad? it seems that it keeps falling with no upside together with usd/chf. I hope it is a strong bearish sentiment that players want to induce to the market because if eu/usd and gbp/usd are expected to rise further than we can see more downside to u/cad and u/chf. Thank you for your time
on 28 Jul 2009 at 11:22 am13Mike

Hi Doc,
Thanks for all your time and insite you give to all of us here. My question is, with all brokers using many banks to give an average spot price, is it save to assume that the banks and brokers are working together in moving the price. Or are the banks the only “players”.
Thanks,
Mike
on 28 Jul 2009 at 11:23 am14Edgars Cinins

Dear Doc,

Don’t you think that we have seen the highs for eur/usd and gbp/usd already and it is soon time to short?

EC
on 28 Jul 2009 at 11:44 am15Edgars Cinins

Same story again today. Can we some progress to the upside at all?
on 28 Jul 2009 at 12:03 pm16Arun Kandyal

Hi Dr
What Gonna happened to gbp instead of rising it is droping, what you suggest ,i am still holding my long ,should close my long with 30-40 pips or wait my orignal target 1.6600 till close of us session thx.

Regards
Arun Kandyal
on 28 Jul 2009 at 12:25 pm17Reynaldo

Hi Doc,

Thank you again for the webinar. Both EU and GU sure are testing the lows. Anyways I wanted to say thank you again. I will hold as you have suggested. Took advantage of the swings up earlier.

Reynaldo
on 28 Jul 2009 at 12:46 pm18Nazali

Hi Dr

Do you expect eur & gbp to recover the losses from the European session? Many thanks.
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:09 pm19EC

Can you tell us, what is so confusing even for your Doc, as the market goes precisely against your expectations?
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:10 pm20EC

Market is testing the upside very unwillingly and falling very easy, could this mean it is soon time to short?
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:29 pm21George

EC, From what I’ve learned by following Dr’s blog and webinars, it is the players who whant you to believe exactly what you’ve just said and take a short. They will then trap you with this short position by raising the level drastically and induce you to cover it, while themselves sell into your higher level long. The players are testing your and everybody else’s patiece. Be strong, don’t let them take advantage of you!
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:31 pm22Kevin

yup looks like a swing and fall day.
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:32 pm23Reynaldo

George,
This is the hardest thing to control I have ever come across in my life. Thanks for the reminder.
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:34 pm24Arun Kandyal

yes GEORGE you are saying absoutly true they are just making a trap nothing else.
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:39 pm25jefe

Looks like they hunted the JPY earlier, now they did the GBP/EUR (you can see they were buying all the way down)– and now they can rise the U/Cad.
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:42 pm26EC

I sorry, but my expectations tell me it will be a big disappointment day for those hoping eur and gbp will rise…
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:43 pm27George

Reynaldo,
Cannot agree more! The fact is that Dr’s methodology is one of the few trying to formalize the rules of “acting” in the market as opposed of “reacting”. The game is rigged in that the players know where our orders are and we don’t. Thus, everyone who reacts to market moves are doomed regardless of the sophistication of their analysis tools. What makes Dr’s methodology so unique is that it makes us try to look at the market with the player’s eyes while minimizing the risk of engagement. Honestly, the calls that Dr. provides us with may or may not be correct, this does not really matter much. They are just the supplement to the core methodology that is truly unique and obviously rewarding to traders. Thank you Dr.!
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:46 pm28George

EC,
They may or may not raise today, that is not the point. The true point is that we are trying to read their intentions, and quick moves by the players are proven to be false moves time after time, meaning that the easier the market seem to fall, the harder the short-sellers will be trapped sooner or later
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:47 pm29Ahmed

Dear George,
I can’t say anything but to second you !
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:50 pm30EC

I am just trying to say that players can change their intentions once they see that they are too much revealed…..
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:51 pm31rich

the japan/ eur gap time rise fortold the eur session downward move.
the eur/u.s gap time fall is indicating a u.s. session rise.
I added to my hedged longs with fresh longs and don’t have a care in the world.
THANK YOU Dr. Sivaraman. You teach what is now so obvious to me and explains why I had so much trouble trading forex in the past.
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:51 pm32Arun Kandyal

dear EC i am on long from friday at 1.6470 and my target is 1.6600 and i just miss 50 pips today from my orignal target and today is tuesday if i take short here then my two business days and profit could be shatter here.be strong gbp will rise more aggresively.
on 28 Jul 2009 at 1:55 pm33Chris

Hi guys n dr just to stick something in the mix have a look at Andrews pitchfork created 20-07-09 high 1.6550 and 22-07-09 1.6333 , running true to form.
on 28 Jul 2009 at 2:16 pm34Reynaldo

Having a hard time believing Doc
on 28 Jul 2009 at 2:17 pm35Eugene

Hi Chris,

What is an Andrews pitchfork?
on 28 Jul 2009 at 2:34 pm36Neil

Hey Doc, whats ur expectation, it has cut yday low as well? 1.43 seems to be difficult to breach, as i told few days back also
on 28 Jul 2009 at 2:58 pm37Minor

Dear Dr,

The basic trading strategy (after 30min from beginning of the session if not break the low/ high then buy near low or sell near high), whether we can apply for gbp/jpy, eur/jpy?

is it better to take position (gbp/jpy, eur/jpy ) at the begin/end of the session or it’s better to take at the middle of the session? THANKS.

Minor,
on 28 Jul 2009 at 2:58 pm38Chris

where’s the Dr?
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:14 pm39EC

I am not ashamed to be disappointed with Doc’s teachings. It may be right that the market will go up tomorrow or day after, but the point is we are here to make profit and it is very important for us to have successful trades daily and not wait for some long term target. I understand that nobody is perfect and there could be wrong expectations sometimes. But when contrary to expectations is happening numerous days I tend to believe something is wrong with the theory.
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:16 pm40Minor

Dear Dr,

what do you think about gbp/jpy and eur/ jpy in the rest of the week?
many thanks,
Minor,
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:16 pm41Jimbo

The DR is Partying with the players
But Seriously Doc what do we do, is it still gonna rise ?
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:16 pm42Reynaldo

Agreed. And what is worse is when the Doc is nowhere to be found. It would be nice to hear from you. Thank you
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:25 pm43johnra

Arun,George,EC
I am also long on GU from 1.65.The position is hedged.I trade small fractional lots.I am not very concerned.If not today we will get our opportunity tomorrow.I am going to sit and wait.Good luck to you all.
Kind Regards
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:33 pm44Neil

As doc as admitted many times that always there are limitations, one has to see the forecast with the other tools like hedging, stop, trailing etc etc, otherwise you cannt trade forex. If doc would have been 100% correct, why he would have been here, he is trying to give you his knowledge, if one feels its fine then should take, otherwise there are thousand other parameters to trade… always there are limitations for anything…

I still think very strongly now euro wont see 1.43 again for sometime, forget about this week also. Lets wait for what doc will say.. thanks
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:37 pm45Reynaldo

Neil,
This isn’t a limitation. This is an all out error. So please. Look at the prediction and such. He got Cad right but how long could it be hovering at that low. Doc said rise didn’t he?
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:39 pm46Reynaldo

Neil,
I can see my comments are not being posted
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:40 pm47Mohi

Dear Doc,

I was expecting this extended downward stophunt, thats why I asked the question this morning at the webinar. Thank you for opening my eyes over the last number of weeks. While I have few longs, I now will have to judge how to deal with the hedged positions. Your input will be greatly appreciated. Kind regards..
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:40 pm48Reynaldo

This is an all out error
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:42 pm49su25

net change still within permissible limits for all pairs, why panic? expect the unexpected!

Doc:
You mentioned during the webinar that tomorrow’s fall will depend on today’s market action, and that you do not expect the fall to happen today, is there any change in this view?
Regards
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:49 pm50Neil

i can see ur comments
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:53 pm51Reynaldo

My apologies. I take that back
on 28 Jul 2009 at 3:57 pm52Mohi

Calm down guys, it only dropped by 100 something pips. GU can drop by 250 pips + a day if the players want. I was watching volume earlier at DBFX platform, huge amounts of long positions were taken, so this makes sense. The players are not going handout their money to us so easily. Good luck
on 28 Jul 2009 at 4:04 pm53Chris

I think the Dr is looking after his main concern . the paying traders.!
on 28 Jul 2009 at 4:12 pm54johnra

Mohi
Useful information.I also watch the pivots.Key pivot S1 looks like holding.
kind Regards
on 28 Jul 2009 at 4:45 pm55Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear smith
As you see they are expected to make alternate moves in numerator and denominator currencies - once level is gained they are expected to hold the denominator currencies while rising numerator currencies.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 28 Jul 2009 at 4:46 pm56Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Chris
yes euro/gbp is expected to rise before next drop.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 28 Jul 2009 at 4:49 pm57Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Poonam
the extrodinary rise in USD last year was due to multi year trend reversal.That sort of moves could be seen once in 15-25 years and not every year.- so no fears now.
When you contol your trading risk with hedging then you need not worry above big moves in the market as you take risk for limited pips if you use hedging instead of stop or no stop.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 28 Jul 2009 at 4:51 pm58Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Francesco
when people wait to maximize the profit without trading strategy loike trailing stop in profit making positions the players create the fear and uncertanity.
Any way there will be another rise from now for you to book profit.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 28 Jul 2009 at 4:52 pm59Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Ahmed Hanif
we need to wait as they need to do month end moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 28 Jul 2009 at 4:57 pm60Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear EC

what appears in the market is not true.Calmly relate the net change and the market moves in different pairs then you will be able to understand whether the market is in downward direction or upward direction.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 28 Jul 2009 at 5:00 pm61Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Neil

We could see tomorrow how EURO can rise very easily above 1.43 area.
Then we can understand how players deceive the traders often.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 28 Jul 2009 at 5:11 pm62EC

I really hope you will have right Doc, as I would like to believe your teaching very much…
on 28 Jul 2009 at 5:18 pm63Neil

May be but before that if could drop to 1.4070 or so.. lets see.. further selling has to happen to rise it again
on 28 Jul 2009 at 5:19 pm64travis

i have lost 90% of my account in the last 12hours. I am three longs left in guppy one @ -134, -255 and -245pips left….my whole account could be gone soon if it doesnt rise….Unfortunately i removed my SL when i could of restricted my loss to about 10% of my account. I have a headache now!
on 28 Jul 2009 at 5:54 pm65George

travis,

Sorry to hear that the players have been hard on you! Hope it will work out just fine. The market is extremely tricky these days with range-bound and false breakout-prone trading and even the professionals have hard time reading it. Keep the faith and limit the risks! Remember what the Good Dr. says: fear and greed are our worst enemies. Best of luck to you!
on 29 Jul 2009 at 3:49 am66Poonam

Thank you doc and Su25 for your advice.
on 29 Jul 2009 at 4:58 am67su25

travis
I do understand your dilemma. I have been trading gbp/jpy and always holding losing positions with a minimum -500 pips loss always. I was down to -90% but it was a move of more than 1000 pips and I was on the wrong side with 3 lots.
I traded against those losing ones - like hedging, and I am almost break even now. Think about what you will do rather than get bogged down by what has happened.

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