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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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NFP data release time - week end expected moves

Posted on August 7, 2009 at 4:26 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

EURO and GBP made the drop yesterday duruing US session as expected by forecast.

They are expected to firm up during Japanese session and slide initially to drop quickly before NFP data release by 12:30 GMT and then firm up towards close of European session.

Then swing and rise moves are expected in them during US session for week end.

Qucik drop before the data release time are buy opportunities.Still limit the risk by using hedging.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

46 Responses to “NFP data release time - week end expected moves”

  1. on 07 Aug 2009 at 5:14 am1joshhh

    Hi Doc,

    Do you mean that reaction to NFPA is that GBP & Euro will drop? or the initial first move is false move being of drop & than it will rocket up?

    Thanks for your yesterday’s forecast it gave me 150 pips profit. biggest ever.

    thanking you.

    Joshi.NZ

  2. on 07 Aug 2009 at 5:37 am2khalid saeed

    sir,

    i want to know the your view of euro/cad for next week kindly answer soon as i am in deep trouble.

    thanks

    regards
    khalid saeed

  3. on 07 Aug 2009 at 5:54 am3Roopal

    Hi Doc,

    It was really nice call yesterday.
    Regarding GBP/USD what would you expect the low ? I mean 1.6700 area or futher down to 1.6500 area(which will be a big drop).
    Please advice as couldnt handle hedging.

    Thanks & Regards,
    Roopal.

  4. on 07 Aug 2009 at 6:34 am4Arun Kandyal

    Hi Dr
    After todays drop during NFP data release and swing and rise moves in us session as you forecast today i believe they could drop more on monday as a week begining false move and may extend downward stop hunt on tuesday and then rise whole of the week to shift trading zone to higher level.whats your views thx.

    Regards
    Arun Kandyal

  5. on 07 Aug 2009 at 6:50 am5Francesco

    Good day Dr.Sivaraman,

    EUR is holding up well, while GBP is still slowly falling.
    Do you think this move is to rise EURGBP and consequently drop it with the next rise of the market?

    Shall we expect a drop for the EUR also before the new rise or before NFP data release?
    It’s harder for me to read the market in these days.

    Regards,

  6. on 07 Aug 2009 at 6:53 am6E. Sheikh

    hello doctor

    Im using Fxsol UK. Kindly inform if u forcast Index as well, if so please comment on France40.

    Regards
    E. Sheikh

  7. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:09 am7Neil

    Hey Doc, what is mode of the action today? Drop in euro or rise in euro? your comments are not very clear? what is your prediction?

    thanks

  8. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:20 am8Nazali

    Hi Dr

    Do you expect eur and gbp to rise big and recover most of yesterdays losses in the US session or will that be seen next week. Many thanks.

  9. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:23 am9Nazali

    Hi Dr

    Another point - do you see eur dropping more than gbp today as yesterday eur’s the drop was quite modest and gbp’s drop was big.

  10. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:29 am10hugme

    Dear Doc,
    As we know,the 150,250 pips is permissible for EU and GBP each day.What does “permissible”mean?it is mandatory or of experience?TKS

  11. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:38 am11Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear joshhh
    false move -drop before data
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  12. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:39 am12Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Roopal
    there could be 100+ pips quick fall and then rise expected.
    Regards
    dr.sivaraman

  13. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:40 am13Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear Arun Kandyal
    Possible- i will give the posting on monday for next week.
    Regards
    dr.Sivaraman

  14. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:41 am14Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Francesco

    yes we will see slide in both
    Regards
    dr.Sivaraman

  15. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:42 am15Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Neil

    Drop first and then rise.
    Regards
    Dr.sivaraman

  16. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:42 am16Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Nazali
    By early next week it could be possible
    Regards
    Dr.sivaraman

  17. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:44 am17Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear hugme

    unwritten rule
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  18. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:45 am18jaydee

    Dear doctor,
    Today during the recent gap time i.e. 7:00-7:30 GMT players made the quick drop and they made a new low in the first 15 minutes of the gap time and firmed up in next 15 minutes and came back almost to the level from where they started… what does this mean.. please elobrate a little..

    Regards

  19. on 07 Aug 2009 at 7:49 am19Hercs

    Dear Dr. Sivaraman,

    You state and I quote:………”EURO and GBP made the drop yesterday duruing(sic) US session as expected by forecast.”

    I was in your Webcast and you suggested shorts(?)from 1.7034 for GBP/USD which indicated to me that you expected the price to go UP and not DOWN as it did and now you mention this morning……..”as expected by forecast”?

    Where lies the confusion, please?

    Like Niel above, I feel that you are vague at times and leave it to us to “work it out” as to whether the price action will be UP / DOWN. I would appreciate if you could take an extra minute and “spell it out” as to what direction you expect the market to go during the different sessions.

    Slip and slide and pump and dump just does not do it for me; maybe it is your brilliance that makes it difficult for you to get to “our level” of understanding your trading methodology.

    Thanking you in advance.

  20. on 07 Aug 2009 at 8:04 am20Mary

    Hercs

    Short means the market is expected to go down, as always the analysis was 100% accurate, quite frankly you should get all your facts in order before making these wild statements and winding yourself up - the explanations are never vague, you just need to slow down and try to understand the basic terminology that is used - the confusion lies within

  21. on 07 Aug 2009 at 8:53 am21Junaid Pervaiz

    Dr,

    Do you see an another big rise in the month of August as u said it would be a promising month for the buyers. Your views will be appreciated.

    Regards
    Junaid Pervaiz

  22. on 07 Aug 2009 at 8:54 am22Junaid Pervaiz

    Sorry i forgot to mention in EUR and GBP I meant.

  23. on 07 Aug 2009 at 8:55 am23Radha

    Hi Hercs,

    I had joined yesterday’s webcast (two of the three) and here is was I recollect..

    Yesterdays’s call by Dr was slide during US session, in fact he said during part 2 of tracking the markets together Dr suggested we take a short in GBPUSD from 1.6880 (before start of US session) and it did drop to 1.6770 levels to close with profits… There seems to be some understanding issue here..I agree one should be clear with their understanding before taking any positions…

    Cheers

  24. on 07 Aug 2009 at 8:59 am24Greg

    ” shorts(?)from 1.7034 for GBP/USD ” I.e. Take a sell position for a drop whicih is exactly what happened.

    Infact the high by my account was about 1.7031 so a very accurate prediction I would think.

  25. on 07 Aug 2009 at 9:11 am25Chris

    I dont think it could get any clearer than short GBP????????

  26. on 07 Aug 2009 at 9:15 am26Ahmed

    Dear Hercs,
    Following links contain summary of respected Doctor’s methodolgy compiled by the fellow bloggers.These might be helpful:

    By Sue25 on 09/07/09

    http://blogs.fxstreet.com/marketreadings/2009/07/09/expected-market-moves-for-boe-interest-rate-announcement-time/

    By jefe on 16/07/09

    http://blogs.fxstreet.com/marketreadings/2009/07/16/downward-and-upward-stop-hunt-moves-for-a-day/

    By Feravagas on 17/07/09
    http://blogs.fxstreet.com/marketreadings/2009/07/17/volatile-moves-for-week-end/

    Following is my compilation:

    TERMINOLOGY:

    Swing - up and down moves between high and low

    Slide - slow drop of 30-45 pips

    Rise - a gain of 50-75 pips

    Drop - a downward move of 60-90 pips

    Swing and Slide/Drop - up and down moves between high and low and then going below low.

    Swing and Rise - up and down moves between high and low and then gain to rise

    above high.

    Dip = 20-30 pips correction

    Firming up = 20-30 pips gain

    Cheers

  27. on 07 Aug 2009 at 9:39 am27joshhh

    People who loose money always blame others & will always find some faults somewhere else. They think they have more sense than others. If one does analysis of what went wrong & why it went wrong, they can stop blame game. Good luck to all who thinks positively & progresses in life. To all Cry babes …get a life, act like an adult , take your own responsibilities.

    regards

    Joshi.NZ

  28. on 07 Aug 2009 at 9:47 am28Radha

    Hey Joshi, All of us go thru periods of LOSS….and we come out of it more experienced and better prepared for the future…So let’s be sympathic ….Cheers

  29. on 07 Aug 2009 at 9:47 am29rich

    I 2nd what Josh said.
    Also, don’t risk more than a token amount until you have shown consistent profitability or you will get very angry and act like an idiot.
    If you can’t make money with 1 lot in a MICRO account, then you will NOT make money with any size in any account.
    Don’t fool yourself. If I had to guess, and I already know I am right, anyone making money in this biz (with Doc or without) has lost a lot of money first (the more the better) and has made it their life work to find out why, take full responsibility for EVERYTHING, almost quit, more than once, made every mistake possible, then did it again.

  30. on 07 Aug 2009 at 10:06 am30Ahmed

    Dear Hercs,
    You can search the blog for the summaries of respected Doctor’s methodolgy compiled by the fellow bloggers.These might be helpful:

    By Sue25 on 09/07/09

    By jefe on 16/07/09

    By Feravagas on 17/07/09

    Following is my compilation:

    TERMINOLOGY:

    Swing - up and down moves between high and low

    Slide - slow drop of 30-45 pips

    Rise - a gain of 50-75 pips

    Drop - a downward move of 60-90 pips

    Swing and Slide/Drop - up and down moves between high and low and then going below low.

    Swing and Rise - up and down moves between high and low and then gain to rise

    above high.

    Dip = 20-30 pips correction

    Firming up = 20-30 pips gain

    Cheers

  31. on 07 Aug 2009 at 10:08 am31Chris

    price go down = drop/dip/slide/dump/downward stop hunt(bear)
    price go up = rise/spike/pump/upward stop hunt(bull)
    spelt out.

  32. on 07 Aug 2009 at 10:13 am32joshhh

    good one team….. now even my 10 year should be able to understand this…Happy pipping fellas, NFP data is not far.

    cheers

    Joshi,NZ

  33. on 07 Aug 2009 at 10:21 am33Sam

    Dear Dr.Sivaraman,

    You see eur and gbp deep just before NFP data release, then rebouds.

    What are the high targets for the two curency, higher that 1.5 and 1.75?

    Thank you doctor

  34. on 07 Aug 2009 at 10:29 am34Hercs

    Thanks Ahmed, appreciate you taking the time to write.Will look at the references.

  35. on 07 Aug 2009 at 12:37 pm35Neil

    Hey Doc, opposit to ur expectation happening, just holded before data release and rised quickly, still you think we can test 1.4250/1.4150. You were expecting these levels in mid-week, but now we are at weenend, still you think they will make moves down to there?

  36. on 07 Aug 2009 at 12:44 pm36Francesco

    Postive data > rise then drop = buy opportunity?

    Are players building buy position at lower levels to rise later on?

  37. on 07 Aug 2009 at 12:48 pm37Radha

    Dr, another great call…proves data does not matter…but the players intention is more important.thanks & regards

  38. on 07 Aug 2009 at 1:03 pm38Arun Kandyal

    upward stop hunt before the drop

  39. on 07 Aug 2009 at 1:11 pm39Brent

    Arun,

    You don’t think that the dollar is weakening due to increased risk appetite, making the GBP/USD increase?

    -Thanks.

  40. on 07 Aug 2009 at 1:34 pm40Ahmed

    Respected Dr,
    What a wonderful callagain.Except it worked in reverse…but exactly according to the rules enunciated by you and all the techies had no idea what to do or what is happeneing!
    Thanks
    Regards

  41. on 07 Aug 2009 at 1:36 pm41VAHID

    DEAR DOCTOR
    WHY URO AND POUND QUIKLY DROP(UNTIL URO 1.273 )DO TKINK UNTIL TODAY TREND RISE OR DROP?

  42. on 07 Aug 2009 at 3:46 pm42Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear Junaid Pervaiz
    now month beginning volatile move is seen.They are expected to rise EURO and GBP from coming week as they are holding low and buying now against their higher level sells .
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  43. on 07 Aug 2009 at 3:48 pm43Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Sam
    The expected highs could be seen in this monrh end.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  44. on 07 Aug 2009 at 3:51 pm44Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Neil
    players can achieve their objectives as and when traders believe what is visible in the markert is true.
    They have now dropped to buy against their 3 days of sells.next they quickly gain levels to trap the lower level short sellers alternate with higher level buyers.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  45. on 07 Aug 2009 at 4:32 pm45hugme

    Dear Doc,the Euro/USD has moved about 190 pips as net change, will it end up below 150 pips when closing of the day?

  46. on 07 Aug 2009 at 5:11 pm46Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear hugme
    week ends when many want to liquidate positions this sort of exctended move beyond the permissable level could be seen but the weekly limit might have been honored.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

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