Operators' intentions read by 
Yesterday during US session opposite of the expectations GBP made the extended drop of 250 pips net change and later gained some towards close while Euro was making narrow range swings.As expected EURO and GBP made upward gap opening today.
They are expected to make swing and firming up move during Japanese session.quick volatile moves near high and rise are expected during European session.A quick dip during late European session and volatile moves during gap time and start of the US session and then rise are the expected moves during US session.EURO and GBP are expected to gain the lost ground in this process.
I will explain in details the expected moves during webinar - Asian session: LIve market analysis between 05:00 - 05:30 GMT
Below given link can be used to register and to attend the webinar
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=05606a85-c48a-41a4-adf7-0a2f9dfb5b5a
More volatile moves and rises are expected tomorrow.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Dr. Sivaraman hi, thank you so much for all the good work.
Regards
Hi Doc,
If they have dropped GU from 1.7000 in last two days, why they will rise now? why not to collect shorts before rising GBP..say tomorrow. Will they not hold prices just above high of Japanese session & swing? rather than rising?
regards
Joshi.NZ
Hi Dr
They are rising eur/usd or eur/gbp and holding gbp near low.what is it?is it a signal to rise later with drop eur/gbp and holding euro to adjust levels thx.
Regards
Arun Kandyal
Good day Dr. Sivaraman,
how do you expect players to move prices ahead of the most important event for the week, is the FOMC meeting tomorrow?
Is it possible that they will translate positive signs and news in terms of new strenght of the USD or the expected rise for EUR and GBP shall happen in the name of risk appetite?
Today it seems that the regaining process is slower than the fall we saw on Friday and yesterday.
Could this instead be a good sign for longs since players are holding and building their buys at the current levels?
Regards,
Dear doctor,
Do you think that the players will sustain or rise the levels in all the denominator currencies while rising the numerators?
thanks
Regards
Doc, do you think the players will drop the G/U below pyschological level 1.64 before rising ?
Dear Dr. Expect more drop during US session?
thanks
Dear Doc,
each market commentar are turning to USD positive, even more analysts expect downward move in EURUSD. This is because the players want traders to take short positions?
Recently, the EUR and GBP show the same price actions as last week on the upside: holding high and building sell positions. Now the opposite actions are ongoing in the background?
Anyway, what is your view on the stock market in the coming weeks? is there any chance for a bigger correction?
regards,
smith
I am seeing correctly, pump and dump moves on both EU and GU? Thanks doc.
mmm AUD/USD dropping but USD/JPY holding Eur/GBP rising and Eur/USD falling, GBP volume just increased 30% and EUR/JPY falling like a stone… Something isn’t right… USD/CAD is rising though
Dear joshhh
near low collection the liquidation of longs and inducing short selling is easier than inducing buy near high.They could have collected more longs and they know when they rise initially short sellers will take short in a hurry to get trapped.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Arun Kandyal
Compare the net change in euro and gbp to understand the expected move in euro/gbp.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Francesco
To me it appears they are building buy positions and for FOMC they are expected to rise.
Regards
Dr.S
Hi Dr
Do you still expect a rise for the US session? Many thanks.
Hello Jefe
Please accept my meagre contribution.As for AUD/USD it is supposed to lag behind during a drop, and we have had a severe drop in GU over the last few days while AUD stood its ground.Re your view on EUR/GBP I think if you look at the position where it began to turn down, EU has dropped relatively less than GU.Hence the strength for EUR/GBP.However it is dropping now as GU has strengthened.
Kind Regards
hey doc
you mentioned once cad got above 10850 would see a one sided rise, that still forecast and what is good position target to hold for? thanks
Thanks Johnra,
I’m sure you noticed that both the Eur/usd and GBP/usd respected their 4hr LTL’s- Aud/usd broke through now using support as resistance. Somewhere in my pea brain I forgot that aud/usd was inverse of usd/cad-(I should pay more attention to the commodities markets) more often I see usd/cad inverse of GBP/USD but this week does not seem to be the case. (post NFP always appears out of sync)
Anyway for the past few months I’ve used Aud/usd as scalping indicator when it would rise I would check- Eur/GBP- which ever was strongest- would tell me whether to buy Gbp/usd or Eur/usd first- grap my pips then jump to the other one- Through U/J in the mix and it makes trading crosses a little more understandable. I was expecting to see a rise in Cad (since it dropped 8.5% in a day_- parity isn’t good for the loonie.
Looks to me like GBP will be moving flat till the end of the week, albeit some short-lived volatility for the FED rate decision and and jobless claims moving GBP/USD higher to 1.67 area, only to return GBP/USD back to current level around 1.65. And next week will show GU around 1.62 level.
What do you think?
I’ll be selling GU in small chunks every 30 pips from 1.65 to 1.68 with stop near 1.71, to buy next week around 1.62.
Looks like an awesome strategy to me
GU- Accumulation or Distribution all day, increasing volume no increase in price- buyers absorbing sellers (or perhaps sellers selling into buyers), overall volume down but probably due to asian holiday. Increasing volume (stopping volume) off the LTL (Bullish) Price sustained levels when volume dropped off. RS shows way oversold, time with flat price will flatten out any divergence. Interesting that at 1.6484- it’s the same price we rose last week- with little effort- we can still hit 1.7 by weekend
what’s LTL
What’s LTL jefe?
LTL= Lower Trend Line
Thanks Jefe,
It was either that or the Lithauainian something or other.
Does Doc talk about LTL or have you been with him long enough to know their value with his methodologies?
Dear Dr. Sivaraman, I am a new boy comes to the forex markets. I have been searching for a strong leader. I found that you are the one.
I trade very small volume these days. I look at your commends they are very interesting. They looks like to have a true human chracter in each of every one of your commends. I shall and will follow your commends. Please keep up the good work.
Thanks,
Sam
Dear jefe
Great idea-the one about using the aussie as scalp indicator for GU or EU.As I told you a couple of weeks ago I trade GU and GJ mainly.I dont mess with the looney or the aussie except for a minor involvement in the currency conversion trade.Like you I too am very optimistic about 1.7 by the weekend on GU.I use Dr’s forecast only to get a general direction which works better for me when coupled with his trading strategy.Thank you for your time.
Kind Regards
Rich,
I learned about trendlines elsewhere.
From Doc I keeping learning about the pair correlations, and thus far this has been better than any indicator (and I own them all). I also like Doc because he promotes the use of hedging- which is shunned by most, but I have always liked it. His rules on hedging are much better than the ones I ever used, and very simple.
For trading my charts are very simple- volume, and one indicator for overbought/sold(I use mainly for divergence on 30m charts). I will sometimes draw in fibs, trendlines, and value areas, but usually volume is enough. I’m still very new at this but I always am willing to share what I’ve learned- good or bad…
I’m not sure if Doc uses trendlines or not– but he does mention certain indicators from time to time, and support becoming resistance- so one would have to know where those area’s were to reference them…
Seen questions/opinions quite often about levels a pair can achieve during the week. For anybody interested, I suggest that one should look at the the previous week’s high/low and take a cue from there. For eg, take a look at Gbp/Usd from Jan 2009 until this week - observe whether price has been able to cut the high/low of previous week AFTER cutting the low/high of previous week. In other words, check whether Gbp/Usd respects HH/HL and LH/LL. Not very often HH/LL is posted!!!
Dear su25
Sorry I cant figure out the last line.HH/HL and LH/LL? Also what do you mean by HH/LL not being posted very often.Would appreciate your assistance.
Thanks and Kind Regards
HH=Higher High
HL=Higher Low
LH=Lower Low
LL=Lower Low
When previous week’s high (low) is cut then a HH (LL) is posted.
Usually when a HH is posted, then the low for the week is higher than previous week’s low, therefore, a HL is posted => HH/HL.
Similarly, when a LL is posted, then the high for the week is lower than previous week’s high, therefore, a LH is posted => LH/LL.
Rarely is the previous week’s high and low cut to give a HH/LL.
Trend followers use this basic HH/HL or LL/LL to determine an up-trend or down-trend. However, I use it in a different way - once a HH is posted, then the previous week’s low is used as the max permissible drop level, similarly once a LL is posted, then previous week’s high becomes the max rise level. This I combine with net change figures to determine whether sell/buy or buy/sell trades would be profitable. It can also be used as a filter - i.e. to determine whether to go with Doc’s forecast or wait
I do not recomend this style of trading to anybody. I have given it here to illustrate how one could combine technical analysis with Doc’s methodology and make it one’s own unique trading style!
Dear su25
Its very clear now.You have taken a lot of trouble to give me a detailed explanation.Much obliged.Also understood the trading style that can be derived together with its limitations.
Thanks and kind Regards
Keep at it, I’m sure they will rise one of these days
anyone attended today’s webinar & has got doc’s prediction?
He didn’t anticipate it dropping below 1.64 the forecast is for a overall rise. Volitile moves at fomc and then a large rise after.
as per slide..
Jap sess swing and firm/ Euro sess early dip n rise.. quick rise late europe.. us sess quick swing n rise.
dear jef,
Could you illustrate on the pair correlation and how to use it?you are so helpful with your posts.thanks.
dear jefe,
Could you illustrate on the pair correlation and how to use it?you are so helpful with your posts.thanks.
Dear doctor, would you please forecast GBP/USD pair?
Thank you,
Sam
sean m are you still shorting ?
Hi Dr
Your keeping a low profile today. Hope you join us small traders later.
Dear Doc,
I hope you can join us soon with an updated forecast. I believe you are the next best thing to bread in forex. I have been only doing this for last 6/7 months, but last 2/3 months have been extraordinary because of lessons I have learnt from you. However, the algorithm or model I think is bullish, rather than bearish or neutral. The reason I say that, you use the word “rise” more than drop or dip at this blog or at the webinar. May be I have not yet seen continous bullish market yet, rather what we have seen in last 7/8 months is bearish market. Many thanks and Regards..
I am new to trading, can anyone tell me what’s the algorithm or model used for trading GBP/USD.
Regards
Jo
Do we need an update. It is doing exactly what he said it would. No?
Jo- if you can - read the past two weeks posts of this blog- that will point you in a good direction
My apologies Dr. I wasn’t out to hijack the days blog
hugme(and others)- I’ll try to explain…
http://www.fxstreet.com/forum/showthread.php?p=75169&posted=1#post75169
For this week the GU has dropped around 450 pips which is about 75 pips more than the present 380 pip ADR. LL have been made from the previous week and price has now halted at the low level of last week. Does the market continue up and break last weeks lows to test the highs of this week or last week as it is month end week? If so where and when do I get long to take advangeof this buy sell strategy?