Operators' intentions read by 
Most of the days when US data is released the traders tend to get confused - whether to follow risk appetite move for a USD +ve data or USD gaining move and if the data is -ve to USD, whether to follow risk aversion or USD weakening move.So a survey of traders confidence could help them to trade or they mostly miss the good trading opportunities because of false moves of the players.But following false move of the players could be more beneficial rather than to expected either of the moves - usd weakening or strengthening moves and keep away from the market.
Players are still handling the European and YEN crosses and inducing the traders to make distress short covering in EURO/GBP and long liquidation in YEN crosses.Similarly in denominator currencies they are holding low and induce any level buying to liquidate their longs.
Regards
dr.Sivaraman
what does +ve mean?
+ve = positive
-ve = negative
Doc, do you think your model for the market is too bullish right now?
“+ve” means “positive”, I think.
G.
Hi Doc
Is further rise expected in eu?
i think you got it the wrong way around. Positive US data tends to weaken the US dollar - whereas weak data from the US strengthens the dollar and yen on the back of risk aversion
One view:
Positive US Data => US economy getting better => US corporates will perform better => US Stock Markets rise => More investors (from overseas too) invest in US stocks => Demand for US$ increases => US$ strengthening
Risk aversion/appetite does not play a role in this view.
This view is usually true for emerging markets. Replace US with any other country in the above view to derive the local currency strength (USD weakness).
Another view:
Positive US Data => US economy getting better => US consumers’ demand will increase => more imports => better for exporting countries’ economy => emerging markets will perform better => Emerging marrkets’ stock markets rise => Overseas investors convert US$ to invest in local currencies of emerging markets => US$ supply increases (demand for Emerging Markets’ currency increases) => US$ weakens => risk appetite move
For risk aversion, reverse the equation.
US is not viewed as “risk”. Emerging markets are viewed as “risk”. Emerging markets are dependent on US markets for exports, and US$ for Investments. Therefore, when US economy does well, risk appetite will increase, and vice versa.
Of course, I may be wrong, but then that is what makes a market dynamic - diverse views implies both sellers and buyers are in the market!