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GBP is making prolonged lower level consolidation with downward stop hunts,cutting the initial low and then come again and go below to form another low and come again above initial low - the traders are nervously holding long positions and players are creating fear to buy when their stops are filled.Mid session this helps them to rise EURO/GBP as well - inducing short covering.rest of the currencies are not making any significant moves.From 11 GMT the players are expected to focus on Majors and firm them up towards close of European session and during US session.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Thanks for the timely updates.
Regards.
Thanks for your update doc, maybe they saw your post
it’s still dropping. Maybe they will rise tomorrow ?
so, there is panic in GBP as we see but just firming up moves is not to much after this kind of downward move. We are far away from the expected levels on the upside mentioned at the webinars.
The only thing we can see is that the volume is growing continuosly during downward move.
smith
players are trying to prove you wrong Doc..they all are reading only this & watching my positions only…they are after this group…
the doc has beibg saying rise for 3weeks…when all we get is slight retraces…..he has been saying buying dips for 3weeks….now stop hunt….trade what you see…not what you think
so after this huge drop if the fibs retracement is there, will it qualify as big Rise or only +net change for the day will be the one to look.
Hi Dr
If they know traders are holding longs then why should they rise ,they can make money by drop more and rise only 40-50 pips.And they are doing.
Regards
Arun Kandyal
Thanks for your update.But still gbp facing down even after 11 GMT.
Hi Dr
They are droping blindly and you talking about just firm them up towards close of European session and during US session.
Patience gives reward.
I have been reading the blogs since Friday and Monday.The gist of the blogs are after downhunt pip hunt there will a rise in GBP and euro.Sice then GBP has fallen from 1.656 level to 1.6230.Soon it will go up but only after a fall of 350 odd pips!!!I appreciate that it is difficult to be correct all the time but sometimes it would be worthwile to urge caution when lower levels are expected
it is not about patience, we are in the wrong way waiting for the rise in GBP… this is the weakest link. that’s all.
and if we see the daily net change limit it can go down to 1.61.
patience ya can see and feel
this big drop, like last year… double dip on 2nd half of credit crunch, can go way down again
To the readers that have been taking the other side of my trades
I am very impressed at how relentlessly many of you follow the Dr.s guidance. As prices plummeted from 1.66-1.64-1.62 you continued to ‘buy on dips’ as i short the market. The liquidity you provide by following blindly is wonderful.
However I can’t help but drop some advice as I watch you get slaughtered following the Dr. orders. you look like Michael Jackson; You just wanted to get better and took what the Dr. said take, not knowing just how deadly it could be.
You must practice money management rather you are following your own advice or someone else’s. In that money management you must include the following:
The max loss from entry you will allow before closing your order
The max risk you will take as a percentage of your available capital
The max number of losing trades you will take per day
The max number of loosing trades you will take per week
A target profit per trade
A percentage of capital gain you will never risk again
The max percentage of your available capital you will allow to lose before you abandon the investment medium and look for something more profitable or study to find out what you are doing wrong…there is not much study in blindly following someone’s advice.
As a speculator your goals are either cash flow and or capital growth. Don’t loose your account before realizing you need to make changes.
Hi Dr
You said Visible gains are expected from today.what is visible?
Goog job doctor, please keep it up.
Sum
On many occasions I have disagreed with the Doc and went against his expectations even though my fellow traders told me what are you doing? And I said it’s my money verses the Doc’s expectations … MY MONEY wins. I just can’t follow blindly as long as I’m not blind.
The Doc always said don’t get influenced by thinking that any particular currency should go this way or that way, just trade with the market. And anything that was forecasted it’s just an expectation not a prophecy. If we don’t have a plan what do you want from the Doc? We have to be ready for anything that the market could through at us and not the Doc. Greed and Fear ruled me once but no more, now I just stick to my guns=plan.
Happy and Profitable Day
Arun,
What’s visible is gains if you took shorts. o_0
Few observations and thoughts:
1. Daily permissible net change has not been attained;
2. Previous week’s low has been cut for Gbp not for Eur;
3. Eur, Jpy and Chf are trading within last week’s range;
4. Rarely is previous week’s high AND low cut in the SAME week;
5. Rarely do currencies end the week & month closer to the maximum net change posted for the week & month (for eg. last week Gbp posted a max net change of -246 but closed at -14. And for last month Gbp posted a max net change of -482 and closed at +251);
6. For this week Gbp has posted a max net change of -356 and is trading at -303 now;
7. For this month Gbp has posted a max net change of -563 and is trading at -512 now;
8. I am not concerned whether ongoing price action is to handle crosses or contrarian moves - all that is “hindsight” analysis - same reason why Doc is not concerned with historical performance of price action or forecast;
9. What is important in trading is to decided whether I should participate in the current price action, if yes, how (trading plan); and
10. Finally - I decide when to pull the trigger.
Anybody has any comments or thoughts to share?
The money I made this month was using the rules, not the forecast.
I decided to try a small amount without hedging and just let it ride. So, I too wish the rise happened sooner but I am fully responsible for the trade. I do not hold Doc responsible for the market not moving.
Most of my trades this month, I have followed the rules and used hedging, which worked out fine. The lots I am holding with out hedging is an amount I am comfortable with, as I am not trading with scared money.
There doesn’t seem to be any data until tomorrow that the players can blame a 300 pip move on.
BTW, I opened a 2nd account with a small amount of money in and that is the account I use for the non hedged trades (mini, not standard) and if for some reason, doc is absolutly wrong, then so be it. I tried something and it didn’t work.
But, the rules, which Doc says must be followed, take into account the fact that the market might not go up, ever. Thats why you drop the original position when the hedge starts to make some money. That rule makes the actual market direction absolutly meaningless.
hi frds
i see eurgbp reach a good level and need some corretion down , and made a good upstop now the eurgbp will help gbp to gain some levels , we might see again 1.63 today
Doc do you have any comments on UCAD whether it suppose to rise above 1.11
su25 good comments, is there net change table on web?
so you agree with doc and are in buy positions already?
at time of writing I see the V dip in GBP/USD just made, drop and firm rise up to drop start, its reversal to rise as docs forecast
Dear su25
I have left a reply on yesterdays thread under contrarian moves.
Kind Regards
must be a month end reversal move?
Where do eur/usd & gbp/usd will go based on fundamentals?
Dear su25
Re your observations in 14 above.I think 2 and 4, when coupled indicate that any rise on the GBP would be limited.I would like to believe what 5,6 and 7 indicate.ie large positive divergence from the present negative net change on GBP for both the week and the month.
Kind Regards
dear All
Every month end and month beginning time this sort of uncertanities could be seen and when the levels are deviated from the ’statistically estimated levels’ there could be doubt about the estimates.I am willing to accept if it is wrong,hence I suggested trading strategies to limit the risk.I request readers not to compare with earlier big moves- that could creATE MORE UNCERTANITES.
Obviously the players are great as they have the potency to change the world market sentiments.
I am trying to read by many means and that may turnout wrong at times.I am sorry about it.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Doc,
I hope you do not feel at all responsible for traders.
Your rules, when followed, will lead to a trader making profit.
I am sure that you wish the forecast was right %100 correct every time.
I, for one, truly appreciate what you do here and would not want to see you stop.
Thank you for the opportuinity that you provide.
HI Dr
If you where right all the time you would be invited to be one of the players!!
what’s expected from here - any change? Many thanks
Dear doc, hence the forecast or the predicted levels change now??? if yes please update and tell here..
maxi
Gbp/Usd offers buy/sell and sell/buy trading opportunities several times a week - for me sell/buy trade is not attractive anymore with current price action, I would now start looking for buy/sell trades very soon, but not just yet (price action does not yet support my buy/sell criteria). I am indifferent to specific price levels.
I do not trade Doc’s views. I do use weekly and monthly net change figures for trading decisions. And, I sometimes have both sell and buy positions in the same currency pair. I trade primarily Gbp/Jpy.
I do not like to comment on specific trades, but this once
Do you think a bottom is in in the gbpusd
THIS A TREND REVARSAL GUYS, GET READY FOR A BIG RIDE!
I have stated figures for Gbp to remind readers that this pair is a volatile pair, and today’s price action should not be reason for panic.
Doc, I find it odd that you write “I request readers not to compare with earlier big moves- that could CREATE MORE UNCERTANITIES.” You very often post “Drop to rise big” (Aug 25) which creates a bias!
Hi all,
I am completely agree with Rich that doc’s rules works fine. Forcast can go wrong and for that he always advice to use strategy but we all fail to use it properly out of fear or bias. I also lost money doing same but I am taking complete resposibility of my trade as I am the one who take decisions to play or not. believe me guys when you understand that your trade is your own resposibility you will not blame any one. and you will do better also.
According to me Doc is trying to help small traders like us as how to play in the market without fear. In the past there are lot of cases when people make good money using his help. So all I want to tell you guys dont over trade and appreciate Doc’s help and try to play safe.
The Dr’s rules do work but it’s difficult to remove the bias given in a forecast and I know that I may have a bias from the forecast even thought I may not want to be influenced by it.
Dear doctor, please you are a great one. Wrong this time, but most times you are right.
I have learn a lot from your momments. I feel very fortunate to have you in the panel. I hope one day I could see the market the way you do.
Thank,
Sum
I went long too.
It tanked against me.
I played a retrace and ended the day with +87.0 pips total.
Yes, I wish I would have continued to trade what I saw (short on corrections) but it was a good learning experience that came out ok. Next time, I trade momentum (momo) with Doc’s trading strategies instead of his prediction.
Whew.
Tough day.
I think the current downward pressure might be the result of decreased risk appetite caused by an unstable US stock session.
People should perhaps remember that the Dr. doesn’t charge for his guidance and nobody is forced to follow his readings.
IMO.
Doc your forecasts are very well respected. We appreciate your input and willingess to teach us. Traders who listen to your calls and make their moves and get out on time are in good shape some become greedy or read too much into it get blown out and then blame you. They need a little bit more guideance in my opinion
Dear Dr. Sivaraman,
I suspect that we will see some consolidation and then a new break lower.
How do you see it?
Thanks
Guys, I do not get the point, what is so tragic? Actually, situation has not changed very much! What trend reversal, what are you talking about? Drop was not that big and overall has not changed anything!
Respected Dr,
Your rules and strategy are invaluable.Of course forecast can’t be right every time and then money management comes in.Thanks for updating the blog when you feel to do so.
Regards
Dear SU25
Great if you have an MT4 indicator that could keep track of the net change figures for day, week and month.
thanks
hi doc,
i think eurgbp’s now ripe (i expected it to turn sooner too).
regards,
p.a.
Thank you Doc for your FREE information. If one follows your suggestions and uses stops or hedging to reduce risk, they would not become angry. The ones that are posting harsh comments are obviously not following simple instructions and trading based on emotion. Thanks again for your forecasts.
Dear su25,
Could you share with us about your strategy when trading eur/gbp?Many thanks.
Dear hugme (is that hug me :))
I don’t trade that pair, sorry can’t help you there.
Regards
I have been reading your comments every now and then. You mentioned traders are holding long positions. How do you get this information about how many traders are holding long positions?
I was holding long positions and then I gave up.
Does that show in the data, how many long positions are given up?