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week end surprises

Posted on August 28, 2009 at 3:18 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

As part of Month end move,players made the slow drop with lower level consolidation in EURO and GBP with focus to rise EURO/GBP to trap any level short sellers to come for short covering.Till week end they are expected to gain levels and induce further short covering from traders in European crosses.In japanese yen crosses they are doing downward drop to trap all level buyers to liquidate.In this process EURO has gained ,GBP and USD/YEN dropped .USD/CHF and USD/CAD wide range swings are being shown to make the traders to do sell on rise and buy on corrections- all these are month end trap moves to make moves opposite to it from today till Monday and first week of September.

Today EURO and GBP gained during start of japanese session and later GBP alone made the dip to rise EURO/GBP.So it is more of EURO/GBP play rather than GBP weakness.

EURO and GBP are expected to make a brief dip during late japanese session and then recover the momentum to rise during European session.More rise is expected during US session- initially rising more EURO when compared with GBP and later rise GBP aggressively holding EURO to drop EURO/GBP -after short covering the players are expected to drop quickly EURO/GBP to buy against their sell positions built up now.

In all currencies try to trade using hedging to limit the risk during quick reversal moves,also keep stop at entry once the position makes profit to eleminate the risk as essential trading strategy.

I will give updates as and when I read their moves before hand.

Regards

Dr.sivaraman

29 Responses to “week end surprises”

  1. on 28 Aug 2009 at 3:53 am1su25

    Dear Doc
    Similar to your intra-day trading strategies, wherein you have split the day into 3 sessions and gap time between these sessions, do you have a break-down for intra-week, such as week beginning, mid week, and week end, with gap times? Would be useful in my learning if you can share this.
    Thanks and regards.

  2. on 28 Aug 2009 at 4:24 am2Dr. S. Sivaraman

    dear su25
    weeks are handled as week beginning ( monday - early Tuesday) and week end ( late Thursday and friday) in between is mid week.similarly the first week and last week of a month are for trend reversal and the remaining 2-3 weeks are for trending moves - the year is split into 4 seasons - every 3 months - in that early month and late month are for volatile moves and mid month for trending moves.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  3. on 28 Aug 2009 at 4:52 am3su25

    Dear Doc
    Great inputs, thanks.
    Similar to the intra-day session, would my recap of intra-week/month/season be correct?

    Intra-week:
    Week beginning: Monday 0030 hrs until Tuesday 0700 hrs (Start of Monday’s Japanese session until end of Tuesday’s Japanese session)
    Mid week: Tuesday 0730 hrs until Thursday 1300 hrs (start of Tuesday’s European session until end of Thursday’s European session)
    Week end: Thurday 1330 hrs until Friday 2230 hrs (start of Thursday’s US session until end of Friday’s US session)

    Intra month:
    Week 1: Trend reversal moves
    Week 2 & 3: Trending moves
    Week 4: Trend reversal moves

    Intra season:
    Month 1: Volatile moves (Jan/Apr/Jul/Oct)
    Month 2: Trending moves (Feb/May/Aug/Nov)
    Month 3: Volatile moves (Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec)

    Few more queries:
    1. Can intra year be defined as Seasons 1 & 4 for Volatile moves, and Seasons 2 & 3 for trending moves?
    2. Can one apply the intra-day session beginning stratgey of “watch for 30 mins…” to weekly and monthly sessions? If yes, what is the watch duration?
    3. Will there be cumulative effect in certain week due to congruence? For eg - last week of Sep (congruence of weekly trend reversal and seasonal volatile moves)?
    4. Would I be correct in assuming that for position traders, initiating positions in 2nd week and closing during last week be a less risky strategy, of course hedging and placing stop at entry rules should be followed?

    Truly appreciate your willingness to share these strategies.

    Thanks and regards.

  4. on 28 Aug 2009 at 5:23 am4rich

    3. Will there be cumulative effect in certain week due to congruence? For eg - last week of Sep (congruence of weekly trend reversal and seasonal volatile moves)?

  5. on 28 Aug 2009 at 5:53 am5su25

    Dear Doc
    I also noticed that “week beginning false moves” are true during week 2 & 3. Is this correct?
    Thanks and regards.

  6. on 28 Aug 2009 at 6:16 am6maxi

    su25
    can you stop making stupid comments?

  7. on 28 Aug 2009 at 6:20 am7su25

    sure maxi, if that’s what you want.

  8. on 28 Aug 2009 at 6:26 am8p.a.

    hi su25,

    i think your comment was not stupid at all.

    regards,
    p.a.

  9. on 28 Aug 2009 at 6:29 am9Sam

    Su25,

    Your questions are not stupid. Keep on asking questions as it’s helping everybody to understand.

  10. on 28 Aug 2009 at 6:35 am10joshhh

    SU25,

    Please ignore someone who has not reached upto your level of understanding. Thanks for taking extra interest in getting all possible clarifications from Doc. you are one of the best Followers of Doc.

    thanks for your insighful comments & Questions.

    regards

    Joshi.NZ

  11. on 28 Aug 2009 at 6:37 am11rich

    SU25,
    Thanks for your summaries. Apparently Doc thinks they are helpful also or he would not be answering them.

  12. on 28 Aug 2009 at 7:04 am12Orlando

    su25, you are the best commenter here. Don’t listen to detractors.

  13. on 28 Aug 2009 at 7:27 am13Ahmed

    Dear SU25,
    You questions,comments and summaries are really helpful and always increase understanding of respectd Dr’s strategy.Pls do keep posting your thoughts.
    Regards

  14. on 28 Aug 2009 at 7:59 am14grow

    Great questions su 25

  15. on 28 Aug 2009 at 8:52 am15Roopal

    su 25 ,
    Thanks for your summaries. It really help to recall doc’s teaching and suggetions. Keep sharing it.Its a good way to learn in a group. Thanks again.:)

  16. on 28 Aug 2009 at 9:02 am16Nazali

    Great support for you Su25 because you have helped us all with your great summaries - keep going.

  17. on 28 Aug 2009 at 9:15 am17Chris

    If you know the answer then it may appear a stupid question. But i’m sure it was asked in good faith, and your opinion is depending on your stand point. At some point Su25 will have the dr’s algorithm .

  18. on 28 Aug 2009 at 9:26 am18Mohi

    SU25, good job summarising. Pls continue.

  19. on 28 Aug 2009 at 9:34 am19joshhh

    I think Doc Should make su25 honorary member of his paid club…she deserves it.. .su35 this call for one one Q to Doc?

    su25 get ready to help us even more…

    I have missed GBP:USD ride…can anyone guide on a good entry point now?

    regards

    Joshi.NZ

  20. on 28 Aug 2009 at 9:52 am20mice

    hi frds

    with a respect to doctor

    i dont know , i feel gbp will go a downstop below 1.62 again and they will start on monday week false a stop hunt to go up strongly , ? maybe i m wrong

    what do you think doctor any update doctor

    regards

  21. on 28 Aug 2009 at 10:01 am21maxi

    su25 just because I said yesterday or day before your comment was interesting, now you seem to post every hour!!

    also you never answered my question!

    and today I couldn’t be bothered to read you comment but it looks like a pile of BS, just trying to confuse like the players… now see how many small traders supporting you. Why doesn’t the Doc just give his full algorythm??

    After Doc’s forecast of rise for 1 month, when month was DOWN; I said rise yesterday, so i hope I gave some useful advise. Anyway, all the best and happy trading!

  22. on 28 Aug 2009 at 10:02 am22rich

    su25 is a she??

  23. on 28 Aug 2009 at 10:08 am23rich

    The Doc does not agree with turning a losing trade into a position trade. Does he?
    That would mean that you would have held a short in GBP/USD from May 2001 until Dec of 2008, just to break even.(as an example)

  24. on 28 Aug 2009 at 10:11 am24vinesh

    Doc are we going to see any rises in UCAD or is the USD$ doomed. I have not seen UCAD rise and hold in a long while now

  25. on 28 Aug 2009 at 10:28 am25travis

    i think the algorithm is broken

  26. on 28 Aug 2009 at 11:19 am26rich

    Thanks Doc,
    Your rules and forecasts are amazing.
    I am getting better and better at understanding the intentions of the players and how they delay their intentions like a spoiled brat child.

  27. on 28 Aug 2009 at 11:23 am27Arun kandyal

    Dear Su25
    You must write a book realy.

  28. on 28 Aug 2009 at 11:37 am28johnra

    Dear su25
    Great thinking.It is helping everybody to understand the broader issues.Probably docs secret as to how it falls one month and not the next. Keep going.I am not able to contribute very much.But, I can say I am with you at least in spirit.Interesting queries about your gender.I have done a fair bit of work on the blog and I think I know it SHA—.
    Kind Regards
    P.S Doctor you have a worthy disciple

  29. on 28 Aug 2009 at 12:24 pm29su25

    This is Doc’s blog, and I do not want to be the cause of any distraction from trading for readers. Therefore, in response to comments here, I have made 3 posts on a blog I created http://su25temp.blogspot.com/
    My blog will be deleted in a week’s time as I have no intention of starting my own blog nor hijacking Doc’s blog. Everyone who wants to post comments relating to me is welcome to do so on that blog, and free this blog for Doc’s teachings and forecast. I shall be more careful and responsible while making comments on this blog in future.

    Doc and others, please accept my apologies for this distraction.

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