23 Responses to “Expected market moves after FOMC”

1. on 23 Sep 2009 at 4:27 pm1hugme

   Dear Dr.,
   Do you expect Eur/Gbp will only drop during the upcoming volatile move?
   Thanks.

2. on 23 Sep 2009 at 4:38 pm2carlab

   Tks very much Dc. Moves have developped as you have anticipated. But what I think worries us the most isthe persistent USD weakeness. When do you exspect the EU to drop for good and what size? Do you think USD will move up faster agst denominator ccies.or EU will be the leader of the move? Tks very much

3. on 23 Sep 2009 at 4:40 pm3Jaf

   DR

   Is the rise also in GBP Not clear from forecast.

4. on 23 Sep 2009 at 4:43 pm4saeed

   Dear Dr. Sivaraman and all
   I expect that the EUR/USD will rise more than 1.4900 and drop. Because the player will show us 1.50 level is easy to reach so small trader like us will buy in hope that we will sell near or above 1.5000 level. The same idea they are going to use in Share market in DJI they will push the market to the level above 9,900 but will not touch 10,000.
   What do you all think about this ,,,,, and i expect the drop will happen before the end of this month.

   Regards
   saeed

5. on 23 Sep 2009 at 4:51 pm5Dr. S. Sivaraman

   Dear hugme:
   Euro/gbp is expected to make nominal swings with in high and low and then slide after FOMC.
   Regards
   Dr.Sivaraman

6. on 23 Sep 2009 at 4:52 pm6smith

   After this call I assume that the EUR will go near to the today’s high, just for fun. At that level a lot of stops can be placed. What do you think Doc?

   regards,
   smith

7. on 23 Sep 2009 at 4:53 pm7Dr. S. Sivaraman

   Dear carlab
   Already they have done the downward stop hunt and firmed up euro some.So it may go near high or make a brief upward stop hunt above high and then slide.Avoid imagining very big moves - it will be late US session the volume will be thin.
   Regards
   Dr.Sivaraman

8. on 23 Sep 2009 at 4:54 pm8Dr. S. Sivaraman

   dear Jaf
   GBP could rise to high or a brief upward stop hunt above high and then drop.
   Regards
   Dr.Sivaraman

9. on 23 Sep 2009 at 5:02 pm9Arun Kandyal

   saeed
   same i am expecting 1.4900/20 and then drop.they will not touch 1.5000 area and the purpose behind it the confusion and uncertaines among the traders.but these are all guesstimates nobody knows exactly what will happen ahead lets see.

10. on 23 Sep 2009 at 5:03 pm10Jaf

    Thanks Dr

11. on 23 Sep 2009 at 5:08 pm11Arun Kandyal

    Hi Dr
    So it is wise to take sell position around 1.4860-70 and then drop towards close and early japanese session thx.

    Regards
    Arun Kandyal

12. on 23 Sep 2009 at 5:13 pm12jefe

    There also may be HUGE sell orders at 1.50 level to trigger at this time- Players been building shorts(per Doc) and this would not benefit them if their intent is to lower the EU and buyer at the lower prices to close their own positions.

    Saeed I have to agree with you on that one.

13. on 23 Sep 2009 at 5:18 pm13grow

    Thanks again

14. on 23 Sep 2009 at 6:28 pm14carlab

    Again your models are so great…But are these highr EU levels good for sale in 14/2 weeks horizon time to look for 300 pips in the way down? Do you expect USD to apreciate in this period? What should be a real target? tks very much

15. on 23 Sep 2009 at 7:02 pm15Ange

    Doc - very precise market readings today… pip by pip rise in the morning and the upward stop hunt post FOMC. You really have studied the players’ movements in detail,… am really curious how you predicted the slow rise upwards earlier today. I guess one now has to patiently wait for the slide -hopefully they do follow same pattern which you seemed to have judged by your algorithm.

    My curiosity- why did they go up again today on the stop hunt- would they have not liquidated by surprise those traders who had were short at the 1.45 levels when they touched these same levels yesterday? and also would not this repeat upward stop hunt have given chance for those who had taken buy positions to take profit or atleast cut their long positions with nominal loss if at all?

16. on 23 Sep 2009 at 7:14 pm16George

    @Ange
    To try and answer your question why the players drove the market up again. To hit the stops of short sellers is only one half of the story. The other half is that players must attract enough buyers at higher levels to sell into their buying. They cannot possibly just take sell positions without causing the price to drop. So, they attract traders buy fooling around with the price action at the high levels. Today is exactly what they were doing. On the positive note, this means that the drop is coming and presumably a big one, just as Doc predicts. Hope this helps.

17. on 23 Sep 2009 at 7:35 pm17Ange

    thanks George… clearer now. Does it also mean that next they will be doing slow lower level consolidation on the way down? I ask while I remember the good Doc saying that falls are usually quicker than the rises and also the last week of the month (volatility week) is quickly arriving.

18. on 23 Sep 2009 at 7:53 pm18Mark from Idaho, USA

    It appears the change has come…all indices are red. Stock market falling, EUR falling…

19. on 23 Sep 2009 at 8:20 pm19George

    @Ange
    As Doc use to say, let’s watch the drop calmly (presuming we’ve taken our sell-positions ) and see how the players intentions are getting revealed. We’ll also see how many traders will be jumping on the sell-wagon, thus accelerating the drop. We don’t know much about the players’ plans at the moment. The lower level consolidation (also called accumulation when the players are closing their sell positions and buying at lower levels into the traders’ selling) will present itself at some stage later on.

20. on 24 Sep 2009 at 3:10 am20Venky

    Jefe

    Could I request you to send me a copy of the word document that you have prepared at venkateshkc at gmail dot com. Thanks.

21. on 24 Sep 2009 at 3:12 am21Venky

    Jefe

    Could I request you to send me a copy of the word document that you have prepared at venkateshkc at gmail dot com? Thanks.

22. on 24 Sep 2009 at 3:22 am22hashar

    Dear jefe

    Could you please send me a copy of the word document that you have prepared for trading purpose.

    please send me hashar6@yahoo.ca

    thanks in advance
    hashar

23. on 24 Sep 2009 at 4:07 am23mz

    Dear jefe

    Could you please send me a copy of the word document that you have prepared for trading purpose.

    please send me graphm@msn.com

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