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extended upward stop hunt in EURO/GBP

Posted on September 24, 2009 at 8:48 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

the market moves may appear erratic- but the players made a quick drop in GBP ,holding EURO to rise 100+ pips in EURO?GBP as extended upward stop hunt before the big drop they want to do to reach 0.86 area.they are expected to use some other excuse to rise GBP and drop EURO alternatively during late European session to lose all the gains in EURO/GBP.They have dropped USD/YEN and other denominator currencies to drop their crosses as well as downward stop hunts before the big rise they want to make today during US session.During Asian session : Live market analysis I have explained this when they made +ve netchange in both commodity pairs- that they intend to handle the crosses.the extreme  levels seen in crosses are position taking levels and not to close the holding positions in distress- but the players want it as short covering in EURO/GBP and long liquidation in YEN crosses.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

 

 

43 Responses to “extended upward stop hunt in EURO/GBP”

  1. on 24 Sep 2009 at 8:59 am1mz

    i am confused, are thy supose to rase eur/usd 100p?

  2. on 24 Sep 2009 at 9:17 am2Pantani

    I’ve heard Dr.S mention ‘red-red’ and ‘green-green’ during seminar but I’m not sure what he means.

    If anyone has a spare moment to explain the concept I would be most grateful.

    Many thanks.

  3. on 24 Sep 2009 at 9:22 am3Beadelta

    thanks for the update,
    sorry for the insistence, but I’m positioned for sale, and I did not expect the currency rise much. But I believe in their analysis and so I have not closed the sale.
    Do you believe that today it retracts a bit?

    regards

  4. on 24 Sep 2009 at 9:26 am4Gregor

    Dear dr.,

    there’s no doubt E/G will drop big, the question is only when and from what level.
    What is the reason you don’t believe the cross can reach 0,95 or even parity?

    Regards,
    G.

  5. on 24 Sep 2009 at 9:29 am5smith

    we are talking about that it will drop from 0.89 etc. But now we are at 0.9120… the timing is not the best again. Of course, it will drop in the future

  6. on 24 Sep 2009 at 9:39 am6Pantani

    I’ve heard Dr.S mention ‘red-red’ and ‘green-green’ during seminar but I’m not sure what he means.

    If anyone has a spare moment to explain the concept I would be most grateful.

    Many thanks.

  7. on 24 Sep 2009 at 9:45 am7Sam

    Dr, if EG will get to .86 as you continue to mention, and EU also makes it’s forecasted drop of 300-400 pips to be 1.44 then wouldn’t GU need to reach a level of 1.67.

    1.44 / .86 = 1.67

    GU is currently 1.617.

    Are you now saying you expect GU to rise 500 pips in the next couple of days and EG to drop 500 pips too?

  8. on 24 Sep 2009 at 9:45 am8pipso

    Doc,

    Yesterday’s forecast was tremendously accurate and absolutely it deserves appreciation as you were able to judge drops and rises with times. But like me some other traders here are short from 1.45 level in eurusd, so any forecast is no good till eu reaches 1.45 level. Some who reads your forecast like me are stuck now, with margin to the limit. I hope you are correct in the long term prediction of a drop to 1.45 level beofre a major rise. I speak to at least another who reads this blog, who is stuck too. We need to see the bigger picture where a drop of 300/400 pips can be seen, not 100 pips drops as seen in last few hours (in eu). Thanks.

  9. on 24 Sep 2009 at 9:53 am9Soso

    Any ideas why they drop gbp?

    Thank

  10. on 24 Sep 2009 at 10:43 am10Raj patel

    Soso.Fundamental reason:
    0927 GMT [Dow Jones] Sterling is on the slide again after treading water for an hour or so. EUR/GBP prints a fresh 5 month high of 0.9123, and Barclays Capital says above 0.9130 opens the way to 0.93. GBP/USD drops below 1.62 for a near 2 cent loss on the day, BarCap has a target of 1.6130. GBP/JPY is at a 4 month low of 146.50, BarCap says below 146.70 warns a major top is forming in that cross. GBP/AUD dives to a fresh 25 year low of 1.8505. (GST)
    Technical reason: handling the crosses
    Doc’S reason is clear from the update
    cheers

  11. on 24 Sep 2009 at 10:46 am11smith

    the fundamental reason is a comment from BoE’s King: weaker sterling helping rebalancing of UK economy towrds export.

  12. on 24 Sep 2009 at 10:46 am12Raj patel

    Soso

    Press Release
    Sterling is getting hammered on the crosses Thursday after BOE governor King seemed to give his blessings to a weaker pound in a regional newspaper article

  13. on 24 Sep 2009 at 11:06 am13carlab

    Dear Doc: According to your this morning update, is it now stop hunt time between 12/13, or it has occured already?
    Tksvery much. You have been very precise this morning

  14. on 24 Sep 2009 at 12:01 pm14Mevlut

    If it goes above 1.4790 then yesterday’s move was a false move, but i think it will not go beyond. Just playing with our nervous system :)

    On the other hand, you should be careful. Just watch the following 1 hour.

  15. on 24 Sep 2009 at 12:17 pm15Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Sam
    Euro is expected to drop and GBP to rise as contrarian move for a few days and then you will see the quick drop in EURO/GBP.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  16. on 24 Sep 2009 at 12:23 pm16pipso

    stock market is due for a correction. Till that hapns eu will not go down. Key is the s&p today. Tomr is friday, i dont expect much tomr

  17. on 24 Sep 2009 at 12:23 pm17Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear smith

    i recollect 2004 and 2008 yeard when former president was making statements that we have strong $ policy- every time when such statements were made $ use to become strong for 1-2 hrs and then lose big.Now similar situation I see that GBP drop for such statements.Even last week we had statement froom japan and you know how Yen reacted to that.SNB intervention statement and how USD/CHF and EURO/CHF reacted to that.All such reactions are made by the players and not traders- traders tend to believe such excuses from time to time.Please recollect the same statement next month and see where GBP is seen after rise.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  18. on 24 Sep 2009 at 12:30 pm18smith

    Doc, I know the same because I have been following the markets for years. I just answered somebody’s the question but this comment was the trigger for dropping GBP. For the USA the weak dollar is a good thing even if they are making different announcements.

  19. on 24 Sep 2009 at 12:36 pm19Twitter-FXI

    After FOMC,EURO and GBP made the volatile moves and dropped, and dropped further during Early Japanese session.Then firm up and swing near high and make brief upward stop hunts around 6-7 GMT and then slide quickly during Early European session and cut low.Then again recover from mid European session and make the upward stop hunt around 12-13 GMT and then drop again during US session.

    Either way trading opportunities prevail.

    Regards

    Dr.Sivaraman

    *****Please note - the time currently is 12:35 and the e/u is currently pushing upward.

  20. on 24 Sep 2009 at 12:40 pm20j.j

    Dear Dr. Sivaraman thank you for all the good hard work,pls adv on how you see the Euro/$ move a wainting for yr reply
    Regrads

  21. on 24 Sep 2009 at 12:55 pm21Sum

    Raj patel, how the doctor get all wrong this time and have been wrong for a month now. I am very disappointed.

    Dear Doctor, what makes things go wrong for so long?

    Thank you,

  22. on 24 Sep 2009 at 12:59 pm22Mevlut

    Players do not follow any technique, price level or support-resistance. They just make swing moves. The latest movement doesnt mean that it is bullish or yesterday move wasnt a drop. Just buy when you think its low and sell when you think its high. Of course, if your margin allows.

  23. on 24 Sep 2009 at 1:20 pm23Sam

    Dr, I’m confused. You say that market volume is very thin these days as traders are scared to enter the market due to the players making agressive moves to earn their pips. Surely the players realise that by continuing to play hard-ball, even less traders will enter the market so it really doesn’t benefit them to be so agressive.

    Can you please explain.
    Thanks.

  24. on 24 Sep 2009 at 1:23 pm24Raj patel

    Sum
    Why are tell me all this I never complained about doctor’s methods.
    In fact I have made lots pips following the doctors forcast
    for last few weeks.
    He is spot on every day if you trade his rules:
    He has been saying for days to sell and buy with profit of 30 pips when high/low is not broken for 30mins and stop at entry both ways you could never loose with his system.
    if you do then you are not following his methods
    Regards
    Raj

  25. on 24 Sep 2009 at 1:31 pm25smith

    sorry to say, but I do not see any drop in EURGBP just rise, this is not an upward stop hunt because we see continous rise and not a quick move. So reversal will be very slow…

  26. on 24 Sep 2009 at 1:48 pm26carlab

    “The Bank of England has summoned the City’s leading economists to an unprecedented meeting this coming Tues in
    Threadneedle Street, as the pound plunges amid growing confusion over its radical(QE) policy; BOE fears market participants are starting to lose faith in its efforts to pump cash into the economy. London Telegraph”
    Dear All: If they dont come up with some solution, Stg is gonna be very wek…….

  27. on 24 Sep 2009 at 1:53 pm27Raj patel

    Doctor,
    Cable has now reached the sell zone(basing) target possibly players finish buying volume of shorts. They will be looking to of load thier volume before the weekend do you think the recovery will start in the mid U.S. session?
    your views appreciated
    Raj

  28. on 24 Sep 2009 at 2:03 pm28Beadelta

    thanks doctor,

    I have the sale and / g also Smith, know it’s giving despair, but now he is expected to fall. Movement seje players believe that because there were many traders selling this pair is what I think …

  29. on 24 Sep 2009 at 2:12 pm29Ahmed

    Respected Dr never asked/pushed us to follow the forcast or to attend the webinar.If his teachings are considered wrong then who is pushing us to follow?If there is any other better alternative,adopt that one.

  30. on 24 Sep 2009 at 2:23 pm30Mike

    Hey Pipso,

    Quit your crying and stop trying to blame the doc for being down 300 pips. He never told you to enter at that level. Although a prior forecast may have called for a drop at that level he never explicitly said to enter there. That was your choice. And one has to ask why didn’t you hedge or trade with a stop or average your positions every few hundred pip. You messages are clearly trying to, point the blame at the doc for your choices. The doctor is a wonderful person who takes a lot of time out of his day to help us for FREE. If you don’t like what he says or you think it’s wrong than don’t participate. No one is forcing you to do anything.

  31. on 24 Sep 2009 at 2:24 pm31hugme

    Dear Dr.,
    will GBP stop dropping for it has already exceeded 250 pips net change?will EUR continue to drop?

  32. on 24 Sep 2009 at 2:25 pm32Orlando

    Doc,

    You are an oracle. God bless you.

    Sincerely,
    Orlando

  33. on 24 Sep 2009 at 2:34 pm33Raj patel

    Mike,
    Well said he should have used a trailing stop or stop loss
    you should never let a postion run for 300 pips until and unless you have funds to support it.
    Pipso: It will come good for if have the calmness in you this is what the players want to break you down play on your emotions.

  34. on 24 Sep 2009 at 2:36 pm34pipso

    Mike,

    Why dont you mind ur own business? I have never shown disrespect to him. I have always appreciated where it is deserved. Of I need your advice, I will ask for it. I am just trying to comment on Doc’ s forecast here. If Doc only wants “yes” man like you here only, I am sure he would say so. Doc deserves respect and I am not the one disobey it. He is unique and his forecast comes true at the end, I have been preaching for it to be better. I am just fraustarated, and I know a few others too.

    And dont laugh too hard, nature is looking at you, this is world of trading. I learnt it hard way

  35. on 24 Sep 2009 at 2:46 pm35tom

    everytime we have big move, everytime we have argument in the post, never fail…….

    ………..

  36. on 24 Sep 2009 at 2:51 pm36Raj patel

    Pipso,
    Please accept that you are in this mess because you broke the first fundamental rule:
    Never trade without a stop loss this is forex it will distroy you they are all after your money.
    and let us help each other and not fight among ourselves.
    give support to each other and not sling mud at our Guru who is truly remarkable.
    cheers
    raj

  37. on 24 Sep 2009 at 2:54 pm37Roopal

    Pipso,

    I agree with you at some extent and do feel the same. It dose not mean blaming respected doc. but yah some time even can not hedge position(though I was expecting such big drop) when we are too much biased with his strong opinion and emotionally some time can not follow his strategy. But I think these are all learning lessons for us.
    I hope you recover loss very fast wihin next week.

  38. on 24 Sep 2009 at 2:59 pm38Mike

    Pipso,

    My writings are only a reaction to your words, which when read seem slightly hostile. I am not here to argue or fight with anyone. However, I will always defend the Doctor especially in instances when it was clearly the traders mistake. I am still down 100 pip plus on one positioned but averaged through out the rise never coming anywhere near margin and have profited quite nicely along the way.Adding about 5% to my account. If you want to leave positions open you had better be really careful about margin.

  39. on 24 Sep 2009 at 3:15 pm39pipso

    I have wondered about hedging for a number of weeks now. In my opinion, it is not easy as prices bounces in the same place unless you picked it up at the right moment which I think is almost impossible. Unless you are sitting in front of computer whole day, I think it would be very difficult to close and have another hedge 30 pips below. I am hoping Doc can arrange a mini course or a webinar for the topic. It can be a paid one. As Doc has already done enough by giving free webinar and constatnt update here.

  40. on 24 Sep 2009 at 3:37 pm40carlab

    Come on folks, cheers up. Stocks coming off and will continue., main comodities are off about 4pct, hope SNB buys a few doll, I think they are keeping eur/chf at 1.51 supported. Only missing a litlle help in STG, and then whole picture will fit with Doc. views for a lower eur/usd.
    Say 1.4550. I doubt though will see EG as low as 0.87 s he expects. Things look briter today.

  41. on 24 Sep 2009 at 3:38 pm41Mevlut

    Dear All,
    The first rule is to be calm always while trading and never trading with your emotions. We all learn so much about trading techniques. I may loose money but i wont blame anyone for it. And also i have full confidence on earning that lost money again via Dr.’s instructions and his techniques.

    Thanks Dr.

  42. on 24 Sep 2009 at 3:48 pm42jefe

    IMHO The biggest thing you can learn from the Dr is to take all your indicators off your charts (except 1 or 2) and SEE/watch/Learn HOW all the currencies react to each other.

    Understanding how the market moves–removes emotion and stress- and provides better opportunities.

    Just my 2 pips…

    Also the lower risk trade to shorting the EUR was Longing the USD/CHF– the yearly downside is 4 times less then the yearly max on the EUR/USD.

  43. on 24 Sep 2009 at 5:44 pm43Mark from Idaho, USA

    GBP/USD down 295 PIPS for the day…should reverse soon for a great long position. Anyone see the same thing/opportunity?

    Best regards to everyone,

    Mark

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