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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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Month end volatile moves

Posted on September 30, 2009 at 8:27 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

As explained yesterday and during asian session :Live market analysis - EURO and GBP firmed up during Japanese session and holding near high during early European session.they are expected to swing and slide during this early part and later firm up during late European session to slide pip by pip during US session.USD/YEN is expected to make volatile moves during this time and try to cut the low many times and then recover slowly towards close of US session.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

43 Responses to “Month end volatile moves”

on 30 Sep 2009 at 8:32 am1Francesco

Good day Dr. Sivarman,

I am sitting on a loss on a sell on AUDUSD at 0,8650

do you think we could see those levels before further rise?

Regards
on 30 Sep 2009 at 8:48 am2smith

Doc, I has opened a short in GBPSUD after cutting the high during EU gap time but holding high and firming up move is seen. Should I hedge or can we see the price below 1.60 today?

regards,
smith
on 30 Sep 2009 at 8:53 am3Adnan Butt

respected doc’
Do you think euro will break the yesterday’s low today
on 30 Sep 2009 at 9:06 am4Robin

Dear docz,
Is it a upper stop hunt in EU and GU(1.4643 and 1.6094) before going down to 1.4400 and 1.5700 respectively.
on 30 Sep 2009 at 9:17 am5Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Robin
Yes
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 30 Sep 2009 at 9:38 am6Sanio

Dear doctor, do you still expect eur/usd and gbp/usd pair moved down to 1.44 and 1.57 respectively in the next few days?

Regards,
on 30 Sep 2009 at 9:44 am7smith

price actions are a little bit different because from gap time firming up move and cutting the high have been seen. Doc, the daily forecast will change according to this actions or not?
on 30 Sep 2009 at 10:06 am8vinesh

Doc, UCAD not moving as expected
on 30 Sep 2009 at 10:10 am9carlab

Doc: The highs seen in EU and GU are the one you expected in late european hours? Since we still have 2 more hours, do you expect new highs to be seen? Do you expect today’s lows to be cut today NY time? Tks very much
on 30 Sep 2009 at 10:52 am10Jaf

4Dr. S. Sivaraman
In reply to your question yesterday you said the following.
Having bought these lots are they trying to sell them at higher levels.Also building short positions to sell them after drop at lower price.

Is this understanding of what is happening correct?

Thanks

Dear smith
Players see the traders sell and not easily making buy decisions- and the players buy again such sells after drop and induce the short covering before next drop.
they could drop below todays low tomorrow during European session.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 30 Sep 2009 at 11:13 am11Roshan

Dear Doc, how do you differentiate between an upward stop hunt and a change in trend? i’m looking at the euro (1.4660 @ 11 GMT).

how can i know that this up move is a stop hunt and not the starting of the up trend.

thanks Doc
on 30 Sep 2009 at 12:42 pm12Raj patel

Doc,
Once again you have proven to me aleast that forcast of:
early/late European session:
They are expected to swing and slide during this early part and later firm up during late European session to slide pip by pip during US GBP fell from 1.6124 to 1.6019 all most 100pips worked out perfectly
How do you doit? Mind boggles?????
Thank You
Raj
on 30 Sep 2009 at 12:58 pm13smith

Doc, do we still expect from USDJPY to test the 89.00 area during US session? it is making very volatile move as you mentioned.
on 30 Sep 2009 at 1:21 pm14pipso

Doc,

Is that what you expected for eu, gu? Are they expected to go down any further or have finished dropping? Thank you for your comments.
on 30 Sep 2009 at 1:40 pm15Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Sanio
Expected.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 30 Sep 2009 at 1:43 pm16Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Roshan
Upward stop hunt is a move happening in less than 30 min,extended moves happens in 2 hrs.Both have similar purpose for the players.
Regards
dr.Sivaraman
on 30 Sep 2009 at 1:45 pm17Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear Raj patel
hard work gets the reward.it is out come of 12 yrs of post doctoral work.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 30 Sep 2009 at 1:46 pm18TheJade1

Doc,

Most of your expectations work very well and I have benefitted a lot to turn my lossing trades by averaging up or down and end up with a few hundred dollars profits. Because of work, I normally can’t participate in your webinar. Undertstand you do not encourage to trade JPY crosses, however, it would be very helpful if you can provide some guidance on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY to help close my positions without losing too much. Thanks a miilion, you are genious and like Raj Patel, I wonder how could you be so specific and accurate most of the times. I am still wondering …
on 30 Sep 2009 at 1:46 pm19Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear smith
USD/YEN is still in negative net change.they could slide along with EURO and GBP in this session.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 30 Sep 2009 at 2:16 pm20Ahmed

Respected Dr,
It is just to pay homage to your unmatachable insight of the markets.You are wonderful.
Regards
on 30 Sep 2009 at 2:40 pm21JayDee

Dear doc

if USD/JPY dosenot show a big drop today, do you expect it to drop tomorrow or are you expecting a rise from tomorrow onwards???

best regards.
on 30 Sep 2009 at 2:55 pm22Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear JayDee
tomorrow late european session another drop is expected.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 30 Sep 2009 at 3:40 pm23j.j

Dear Dr. Sivaraman hi, thak you so much for all the good hard work, pls adv on how you see Euro/$ & Gold move now & till friday,pls note that yr view is very useful
regarsd
on 30 Sep 2009 at 3:49 pm24Sanio

Dear doctor, would you please give a forcast on eur/gbp pair. How the players want to move this pair for the rest of the day and this week

Thank you
on 30 Sep 2009 at 4:12 pm25Sam

Dr, your forecast does not seem to be moving with the market as AU is now up over 120pips today alone. Are you still expecting .85 / .86 in AU by friday before the rise?

Thanks.
on 30 Sep 2009 at 4:23 pm26EC

Nice work Doc. Particularly today!
on 30 Sep 2009 at 4:44 pm27EC

Market situation right now is asking for an update from your side dear Doc!
on 30 Sep 2009 at 4:45 pm28Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear j.j
Actually it is month end nominal volatile move when compared to other earlier months end times.they are also expected to drop tomorrow early European & US session.
Regards
Dr.sivaraman
on 30 Sep 2009 at 4:46 pm29Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Sanio
My expectation is swing and slide in euro/gbp.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 30 Sep 2009 at 4:50 pm30Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Sam
at times it happens hence I request traders to develop their insight of the market before taking positions.I am expecting the slide.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 30 Sep 2009 at 5:04 pm31Ahmed Hanif

Dear doctor, the third quarter is ending today and we hav seen that pound has been the weakest among all the currencies this quarter so can we say that pound can be on the high side on the fourth quarter?
on 30 Sep 2009 at 5:06 pm32Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Ahmed Hanif
it is not mandatory always.But GBP isexpected to make more rise in coming month after month beginning drop.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 30 Sep 2009 at 5:08 pm33Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear EC
Players are handling AUD crosses other wise no change in the view and expectations.Tomorrow you could see and understand that what appears in the market is not true.We need to read the hidden agenda of the players and trade in line with them.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 30 Sep 2009 at 5:17 pm34Gregor

Dear dr.,
thank you for your update.
on 30 Sep 2009 at 5:21 pm35grow

You had said on Monday that Wednesday you expected a temporary upswing and it is exactly as you predicted
on 30 Sep 2009 at 5:28 pm36TheJade1

Dr’s expectation for today that “USD/YEN is expected to make volatile moves during this time and try to cut the low many times and then recover slowly towards close of US session.” has encouraged me to average down 4 lots of USD/JPY and sold with a profit of >$500 just now (in total less than 4 hours). Since it is a volative market, I just took a quick profit. In the past few days, I also followed Dr insights and make close to $2k every day including today. Happy trading and thanks a lot to Dr’s valuable insights.
on 30 Sep 2009 at 7:19 pm37hugme

Hi,TheJade1,
I wonder how many pips did you earn from USd/JPY?
on 30 Sep 2009 at 8:12 pm38TheJade1

hugme,
My partial results for USD/JPY are as follows, only small profit, hit and run approach as the market was expected to be volatile.

9/30/2009 9:55:05 AM Buy USD/JPY 100,000.00 89.718

9/30/2009 10:31:48 AM Buy USD/JPY 100,000.00 89.676

9/30/2009 11:00:57 AM Buy USD/JPY 100,000.00 89.559

9/30/2009 11:25:46 AM Buy USD/JPY 100,000.00 89.45

9/30/2009 1:14:25 PM Sell USD/JPY -400,000.00 89.722

9/30/2009 1:14:25 PM Total: 540.56

9/30/2009 2:39:14 PM Buy USD/JPY 100,000.00 89.593

9/30/2009 3:07:54 PM Sell USD/JPY -100,000.00 89.743

9/30/2009 3:07:54 PM Total: 167.14
on 30 Sep 2009 at 11:06 pm39Jason Macko

I am very curious now Dr. Sivarman, because the GBP/USD was on the ropes this morning (back below the 1.60 level) yet the advantage was not pressed below consensus support of 1.5940. I am understanding that another push towards 1.57/1.55 is in the works for the next day or so. On the otherhand, a good shorting opportunity is at the head and shoulders neckline at 1.6185 area. Do you have a call on this currency yet?
on 01 Oct 2009 at 5:51 am40man

Dear Dr, Could you explain some basic terms you are using very often– cut the high or low[what do you mean?]. Also a reader asked you what you mean by Slide and reverse,But you ignored it. Perhaps these terms are very basic to you, I hope you will explain. We have to start somewhere!
on 01 Oct 2009 at 8:26 am41Ange

Man
Cut the high and cutting the low is with reference to the saxo bank page which is what Doc indexes for us to glean the net changes in the various currency pairs. High refers to the highest price set for the day and lowest set for the day for a particular currency pair, and this is usually noted sometime between 02.30 and 03.30 GMT… of course there will be changes in either of them or both as the day progresses between various sessions.

Most of the terms he refers to are there in these blog pages, .. you will have to go back and read them for better understanding… a bit time-consuming, but if you want the knowledge you have to spend it.

People who join here newly are regularly asking these same questions without referring backwards… understandably the Doctor is too busy to keep answering them EVERYTIME it is asked.
I hope this helps
on 01 Oct 2009 at 8:48 am42Ange

Man
as a follow up to my earlier post- cutting the high means going above the high set for the day…similarly cutting the low means going below the low set for the day.
slide- drop in the price… reverse is retracement
on 01 Oct 2009 at 9:29 am43man

Dear Ange, Thanks, and points noted.

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