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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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Week beginning expected market moves

Posted on October 19, 2009 at 6:38 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

On Firday EURO and GBP made the initial drop during start of US session and when traders were not placing buy orders near low they firmed up again towards close to attract improved buy orders.

During Early Japanese session a quick drop happned to fill all the buy orders and stops on the lower side.Euro and GBP are expected to swing between high and low during japanese session.They are expected to swing and drop during early European session.From mid European session they are expected to make volatile moves and firm up till close of European session .During US session they are expected to make swing and slide moves.

USD/YEN and other denominator currency pairs are expected to make contrarian moves and rise during US session as general USD gaining moves.

European and YEN crosses are expected to make  swing and slide moves.

I will give more updates when needed.

Today Asian session: Live market analysis webinar held during 05:00-05:30 GMT is being recorded.It can be viewed once posted under the link

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/transcripts/

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

23 Responses to “Week beginning expected market moves”

  1. on 19 Oct 2009 at 7:51 am1Pico

    Please Dr, do you expect EURUSD will cut the low today?

  2. on 19 Oct 2009 at 7:55 am2phil

    doc, thanks for your commitment to this blog.

    on friday you mentioned that you expected USD gaining moves towards the weekend and into this week. could you share some insight into why these moves have not transpired, and why the players are continuing to make swing moves?

  3. on 19 Oct 2009 at 8:23 am3Ronan

    Doctor’s forecast doesnt work. If one followed the trend and technicals for last 2 months, one would have easily made some money for his trades rather than sell eurusd according to Doctor’s forecast. Traders are weak and when good Doctor headlines “Intention is revealed” etc, it does not help. If a trend is upto an extreme, it will obviously reverse, what so special between Doctor and Joe Blog if neither is able to say when they will reverse

  4. on 19 Oct 2009 at 8:40 am4Trader-1

    Ronan,

    if you are looking in forecast for exact levels on when to buy and and when to sell, This is not a place for you.

    I have been following this blog for last one year. I use many other tools as well and I manage funds equivalent to 1.5 Million GBP and I can tell you this is an intelligent blog. This blog is intended to give a fundamental understanding rather than a quick shot which will give you a lot of money.

    I perfectly understand that there could be communication issues sometime and terminology conflicts . My view from your mail would be , you are looking at the wrong place for the kind of information you want.

  5. on 19 Oct 2009 at 8:53 am5Pico

    Ronan, i think the market is not always technical. i realy believe the players create scenarios to trap traders.

  6. on 19 Oct 2009 at 8:55 am6carlab

    Doc, friends:
    Havnt been able to attend today’s webinar. What are expected moves for this week in EU and GU? Are they expected to cut lows and where do you see the lows, pls?
    Tks very much

  7. on 19 Oct 2009 at 9:02 am7Ahmed Hanif

    Dear doctor what levels do u see in GU this week…….. can it test 1.60 level this week?

    Regards,

    Ahmed Hanif

  8. on 19 Oct 2009 at 9:02 am8Ronan

    Carlab, I think you are lucky, I attended, Doc said eurusd was to drop, Audusd unlikely to gain any further. It is all opposite. I took more trades and now heavily negative.

  9. on 19 Oct 2009 at 9:03 am9Ahmed Hanif

    Dear Ronan could u pls tell me what are doctor’s expectations on pound as i havent attended today’s webinar?

  10. on 19 Oct 2009 at 9:11 am10Ronan

    Ahmed, Doctor said that good position trade would be from 1.59 area where it would drop to soon before a rise. Needless to say, I am skeptical of all these. Save yourself, trade technically with stoploss.

  11. on 19 Oct 2009 at 9:32 am11HT

    I just want to share with all that I have been following Doc’s recommendations for the last 4 months…Since series of negative positions and losses I decided to come up with my own strategy and stopped following Doc’s recommendations(an any one else’s)and started trading on my own again…For the first time in two months I ended the week with very good profit and no open positions.

    Let me give you some examples…Of my losses due to Doc’s recommendations…

    1. Buy USD JPY at 98 level in May…Result 1000 pips down…
    2. Buy GBP USD at 1.69 level…Result 1000 pips down
    3. Sell AUD USD at 85.00 Result 800 pips Up…

    I do not complain about the forecast…I like some of Doc’s ideas and apply some of his principles…And this is how I came out with my new strategy…But the facts are that forex dont follow anybody…You need a strategy, not a forecast…Otherwise you will keep loosing…

  12. on 19 Oct 2009 at 9:44 am12sandy

    where is mike, and all other doctor’s strong believer? Now more and more people start losing money on the doctor’s forecast. MIKE, like HT SAID, we need a good strategy not just the forecast.

  13. on 19 Oct 2009 at 9:59 am13Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Pico
    At the moment they are firming up euro,holding gbp to rise euro/gbp.They are expected to slide euro and gbp during late european and US sessions.At that time they could cut the low.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  14. on 19 Oct 2009 at 10:01 am14Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Ahmed Hanif:
    GBP is expected to go below low today.if that happens then we could see around 1.60 by mid week.
    Regards
    Dr.sivaraman

  15. on 19 Oct 2009 at 10:05 am15Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Ronan
    Avoid over trading.We expect markets to make specific moves.it can move against us also.So to limit the risk we need to either hedge or use stop.When we take more positions then if the market moves against us,the fear becomes more due to quick erosion of equity when all positions take more equity due to such moves.Please try to spread he risk in case you wish to trade without stop.Take positions only for 1-5% of your equity and rest should be used to hold the positions.then this sort of fear may not arise.I have not recommended sell and buy trade in gbp around 1.59.I suggested wait for the drop to buy.sell during drop or buy during rise could easily trap us.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  16. on 19 Oct 2009 at 10:09 am16Fawad

    Do u c gbp/usd above 7000 by the end of November.

    Regards

    Fawad

  17. on 19 Oct 2009 at 10:14 am17Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear HT
    When you say 800-1000 pips loss it indicates that you have not taken any styep to limit the risk.the levels you have mentioned are all opposite to my calls and expectations.I did not ask any one to buy gbp at 1.69 and sell aud/usd at 0.85 and wait
    Also I recommended to keep stop at entry in any position once profit is seen.it is nice you have developed your own trading strategy - I want every trader to develop the ability to decide on taking position and taking profit.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  18. on 19 Oct 2009 at 10:27 am18Santosh

    Ronan,

    if you are looking in forecast for exact levels on when to buy and and when to sell, This is not a place for you.

    I have been following this blog for last one year. I use many other tools as well and I manage funds equivalent to 1.5 Million GBP and I can tell you this is an intelligent blog. This blog is intended to give a fundamental understanding rather than a quick shot which will give you a lot of money.

    I perfectly understand that there could be communication issues sometime and terminology conflicts . My view from your mail would be , you are looking at the wrong place for the kind of information you want.

  19. on 19 Oct 2009 at 10:38 am19pipso

    Ronan,

    Doctor’s forecast does work - dont be too harsh. He is spending lots of time here. I have said this to Doctor here in the past, that his model needs more improvement in timing. Instead of saying it for last 2 months, it would have been obviously better if Doctor recommended short now of eu. I hope Doctor takes my comments on board. We all come from different background in our lifetime to find trade more attractive. I speak from my own background in the steel industry, where we had to model a lot on steel composition and its future behaviour under different stress condition. Some things are impossible to model (Jominy hardenability for example, if one cares), so constant update of model is always necessary, here for currency forecasting against values of (predicted - actual) result.

  20. on 19 Oct 2009 at 10:46 am20pipso

    Ronan,

    Doctor’s forecast does work - dont be too harsh. He is spending lots of time here. I have said this to Doctor here in the past, that his model needs more improvement in timing. Instead of saying it for last 2 months, it would have been obviously better if Doctor recommended short now of eu. I hope Doctor takes my comments on board. We all come from different background in our lifetime to find trade more attractive. I speak from my own background in the steel industry, where we had to model a lot on steel composition and its future behaviour under different stress condition. Some things are impossible to model (Jominy hardenability for example, if one cares), so constant update of model is always necessary, here for currency forecasting against values of (predicted - actual) result.

  21. on 19 Oct 2009 at 11:08 am21radha

    Ronan,

    The most important lesson I am learning (still learning..) is whatever strategy / system that is compatible to your style of trading…you need to follow that religiously without fail each and every time. In this process your stops are likely to be hit say 60% of the times ( loss is quantified and minimized) and the 40% of the times you are right should lead you to significant profit which should more than compensate for the 60% of the times we do not get it right. While Drs forecast is a FORECAST. There are no gurantees for forecasts.. If you could follow whatever works for you , consistently trade after trade after trade…you WILL become a WINNER…Cheers.
    Radhakrishnan ( Radha)

  22. on 19 Oct 2009 at 11:15 am22Pico

    Dr, thank you so much for the reply!

  23. on 19 Oct 2009 at 11:23 am23Mike

    All

    Sorry to have been a stranger. I am getting ready to move and my mind isn’t in the right space to trade because of how busy I have been. But yes the forecast is there to help as a guide but not as a means for entering a trade. The strategy is whats important and to trade the strategy with tight stops or stops at entry. If one does this that they should do just fine.

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