46 Responses to “sequential stop hunts”

1. on 21 Oct 2009 at 3:23 pm1Adnan Butt

   Respected Dr,

   Do You think eur/usd will reverse from here?

   plz comment?

2. on 21 Oct 2009 at 3:30 pm2Jaf

   Doc do you consider 250 and 150 pips rise in gbp an upward stop hunt.The blog said either way stop hunts today

3. on 21 Oct 2009 at 3:33 pm3Dr. S. Sivaraman

   Dear Adnan Butt & Jaf
   I am expecting the slide from mid US session- if the selling increases during drop EURO and GBP could cut the low during this session.
   Regards
   Dr.Sivaraman

4. on 21 Oct 2009 at 3:34 pm4Constantin Lucian

   in the following days can we expect further eur/gbp drop? Thank you

5. on 21 Oct 2009 at 3:51 pm5Adnan Butt

   Respected Dr?

   Thanks for comments?

   Eur/usd will cut the low means it will test 1.4900?

   regards

6. on 21 Oct 2009 at 4:20 pm6Reez

   Dear Doc.

   What do u see by the end of the year predict for eur/usd?

   Do u think it will come back to 1.45 area ?

   Appreciate ur time..

   Regards,
   Reez

7. on 21 Oct 2009 at 4:33 pm7Kevin

   Hey doc, i’ve been following you for 6months and i just wanted to say again that your calls are either right or temporarily wrong on EU and GU for me. Thank you also for teaching us about net daily limits and players I am a much better trader trying to anticipate the players moves now rather than simply trading what appears in the market. thank you thank you thank you

   Kevin

8. on 21 Oct 2009 at 5:29 pm8smith

   there is no change in the price actions, everything is the same. Tomorrow during asian session EUR acn rise freely to 1.51 area driven by stop hunt.
   I do not understand that each analysis is favoring USD weakness and giving a target of 1.53 and 1.55, so it seems that the world is in one direction. However EUR is unable to drop just the rise. Something is wrong in this world, what was working in the past months, no it is misguiding.

9. on 21 Oct 2009 at 5:44 pm9Constantin Lucian

   There are much more short positions than long positions in the market so until the sentiment changes and traders start to buy eur/usd the drop will be delayed. The same thing happened when it reach 1.6…it dropped to 1.58 and when it retested 1.6 everyone started to go long and the boom drop 2000 pips. Same thing in gbp now..coincidence or not when the short positions were greater than long closing to eur/usd positions huge upward move. So show important figure 1.5 do some upward stop hunts drop below then go again for 1.5 and when traders enter long players drop. Just an opinion

10. on 21 Oct 2009 at 5:48 pm10Jaf

    Maybe guys we should not be contrarians.Players i think will finally finish us off.It has certainly not been fear free trading for me.Players have finally beaten me and i closed all my positions for a loss pips equivalent to what i earned in the past 9 months.
    Good luck guys

11. on 21 Oct 2009 at 5:59 pm11Gregor

    Jaf,
    obviously I’m a “contrarian” and beaten by players, too. I know I’ve made a lot of mistakes (strategy, hedging, overtrading…), but the biggest one is simply that I was most of the time on the wrong side.
    I guess it’s time to concentrate more on regular job.
    G.

12. on 21 Oct 2009 at 6:11 pm12pipso

    I was planning to become Doctor’s paid subscriber to get perhaps better perspective, but now I wont for a while. He is getting it all wrong. This is not working, I am short on eurusd from 1.45 based on Doc;s constant “update” which I believe is misguiding “weak hearted” traders like me. I am so disspointed about today’s updates by the Doctor. Market has gone in opposite direction for by a long way. This is bad - real bad. No better than tossing a coin. I am sorry I am just dissapointed

13. on 21 Oct 2009 at 6:17 pm13Jack

    Did anyone make easy money on EU long today?
    The trade is easy based on the price action.

14. on 21 Oct 2009 at 6:19 pm14Ahmed Hanif

    Dear doctor i have been asking questions frm u abt pound and ur predictions for pound works great but at the same time i have been hearing a bearishness in euro from u from 1.44 level but what is the reason that ur predictions are more or less perfect in pound but sorry to say euro is not going into ur favor…….. is euro’ bullishness related to strong fundamentls for euro or is it something else?

15. on 21 Oct 2009 at 6:22 pm15vinesh

    Fellas DOC had always said that you should make your own decision he just give his analysis. Its up to you you are the one hitting the BUY/Sell button not him. Seems like when he is right about his predicitions everyone has good words for him and once a a trade goes against you, you guys start blaming DOC for it. Not fair. If you cant make up your own mind and trade decision u should not be trading in the 1st place

16. on 21 Oct 2009 at 6:23 pm16Arun Kandyal

    GUYS only TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.TRADE WHAT YOU SEE with stops and hedging.otherwise you will loose what you earn from the market.

17. on 21 Oct 2009 at 6:32 pm17Gregor

    I’m not blaming Dr. for my own mistakes. Please, don’t understand it like that.
    Good luck.

18. on 21 Oct 2009 at 6:35 pm18Ronan

    Based on what I gather, too many Doctor’s followers lost their accounts. Sorry guys/gals

19. on 21 Oct 2009 at 7:04 pm19sandy

    more & more people will be disappointed if they like to follow witch doctor like the uncivilized man.

    Learn the trade yourself, and believe your own strategy, then slowly work toward consistent profit.

20. on 21 Oct 2009 at 7:04 pm20Ritesh

    I believe better money management + hedging is needed at all times, else results will wipe some of the earlier profits.

    I’m also at loss however it is always acceptable as I made more profits last thursday with Doc’s FREE recommendation on Webinar.

    As long as you trade with Docs predictions which generally have higher probability to give around 40 pips in your trades.

    Guys, use hedging, use SL, its our only “insurance policy” against attacks in this arena.

    For me, next target of EUR USD is 1.51 I hope we still remember the lesson from Doc’s webinar that go long if they cut highs for more than 2 hrs. I may be wrong, hence the SL and hedging.

21. on 21 Oct 2009 at 7:16 pm21ignacy

    Dear Doc,

    We arent seeing any drops, just further uprises, they are not stop hunts but just moving with a trend :/

22. on 21 Oct 2009 at 7:28 pm22Santosh

    Doc
    I think an update from you is in order now. There is quite a lot of people who have given you a lot of respect in past days . I am sure some words from you will definitly help them.

    Vinesh,
    To answer your point , I agree , People make there own decision , But they come to this forum to learn. Please dont misunderstand me , I am not blaming anybody here including doctor but when you run a blog like this , you implicitly have a responsibility. Miscalculation happen , People may understand , may misunderstand but they still deserve the guidence, both in easy times and tough times. and in difficult days like today , it would definitly help if there were more updates

23. on 21 Oct 2009 at 7:40 pm23Mohi

    All, Where Doc lives, it is past midnight now (Indian time). It is dropping so Doc is probably right on this occasion too, difficult to say. I am sure Doc will update quite early as he is not doing an webinar tomorrow.

24. on 21 Oct 2009 at 7:42 pm24vinesh

    Santosh, if you search Doc’s forum he has always said they he is basing his expectation on algorithm and sometimes they could be wrong. Doc does not have a crystal ball he is human and he can mistakes and when he does he makes it very clear that he made a mistake. Yes ppl come here to learn and look for guidance and I think thats what the Doc does. He gives his “expectations” (in quote). If you go to school and learn new things its totally up to you on how to implement it. If you don’t implement it correctly you loose. Doc lives in India so its not easy for him to come out every few hours to give updates. If some one is loosing money its bc they did’t have good money mgmt its not b.c Doc did’t give an update. Doc always said hedge your positions to reduce risk or put SL. If traders don’t do that Doc or no Doc will always loose money

25. on 21 Oct 2009 at 7:43 pm25Santosh

    Mohi ,
    I am sure he will. He has always provided inputs as soon as possible and I am sure he will do it as soon as he is back at his comp.

26. on 21 Oct 2009 at 7:50 pm26Santosh

    Vinesh ,

    you dont need to defend it . I agree to the sentiment and all your sentences. I have not even said that he has made a mistake neither that anybody loosing money is his fault.

    I have said it before and I will say it again , I am not blaming anybody. The point was just made that an update on the market based on his views will possibly help a lot of people mentally. People respect doctor a lot , follow him religiously and his view can help them a lot whenever he can publish it.

27. on 21 Oct 2009 at 8:07 pm27vinesh

    BTW Doc did say that we will see volatile moves today and the EURO and GBP should starting goign down mid US session

28. on 21 Oct 2009 at 9:27 pm28Ahmed

    Sandy,
    If you don’t like respected dr’s methodology, simply don’t follow him.An abusing person can’t say that he/she is civilized.

29. on 21 Oct 2009 at 10:08 pm29IGOR

    There were 462 readers, as of now, of Dr.’s blog. If all these people are sellers then who is buyer? Isn’t it that simple? When the blog falls to 200 people EUR/USD will reverse.

30. on 21 Oct 2009 at 10:09 pm30Mike

    All,

    Yes it was another bad day for euro shorts but as always I put forth some questions to the masses. First as I mentioned in my last posting the doc said to go long at 5750 on the pound a week or so ago. Then we saw a 900 pip rise where are the people who made money from that. Secondly the Doctor has never made me a cent or lost me cent only I have since I am the one who is in control. Like I said in my last posting I have stepped a side for a few days until the smoke clears, but if a majority of traders are still short what does that tell you? Whether it is an algorithm, technical analysis, or fundamental analysis most people are looking short. There must be a reason for this.So why call doc out when he is just coming to the same conclusion as most other people. In fact he was dead on about the first half of today’s movement in the euro. It went up, came back down and went again. In the webinar last night he said to sell around 4970 and it went to 4964 before a 60 pip drop. True the stop hunt was higher and longer than expected but like we all know he is basing his predictions on statistics. At the time of this writing it is back at the 5000 level and I am sure we will see a fall. But what I find interesting is that technically there haven’t been many good entries lately based on the strategy so how come people keep losing money. Are we not trading with stops or are we making are entries based on the forecast rather than the strategy? I will tell you one thing if you want a good strategy just read the blog and when everyone starts posting angry words about doc or are in a frenzy about the market and how wrong doc is then it is a good time to place an entry. We have to stop looking at the market as a 24 market. What I mean is take human time frames out of this. So what if the market didn’t fall within an 8 hour period the market is infinite and never ending by applying human time to it we only excite our emotions. Trust me when I say this we will see lower levels again then higher than lower that’s all this market does. Stop looking for the easy answers and just make intelligent trades with confidence and with stops. If you trade this way you will profit if not you will loose. It’s really that simple. Also, we saw a big drop in euro/gbp today during European session no doubt that euro was going to rise a bit so euro/gbp could retrace common sense. nothing falls or rises in a straight line. Lastly we saw euro/gbp fall below 90 today when it was at 94 last week and people were calling for doc’s head. People if you trade responsibly and with patience than you should be fine this market is much more forgiving than most because it does retrace. I have had trades open for weeks but they always come back. So lets all take a deep breath have a glass of water and exercise some patience and see where things are in a week. Good luck all and remember we are here to help each other beat the players we are not here to argue or to gang up on Doc.

31. on 21 Oct 2009 at 10:49 pm31Ahmed

    Dear Mike,
    your input is really enlightening.Thanks for your time and effort.
    Regards

32. on 21 Oct 2009 at 11:06 pm32Mike

    Thank you Ahmed you are very welcome, and thank you for reading it.

33. on 21 Oct 2009 at 11:37 pm33rich

    This is the first update since Friday. I wonder if that in and of itself is signifigant.

    EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.71 as nearly 73% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.45 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 34.6% lower than yesterday and 12.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 22.3% higher than yesterday and 2.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.9% weaker than yesterday and 2.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

    GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.83 as nearly 65% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.20 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 24.1% lower than yesterday and 34.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.5% higher than yesterday and 20.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.5% weaker than yesterday and 4.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

    GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.01 as 50% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.1% lower than yesterday and 29.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.4% higher than yesterday and 42.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.4% weaker than yesterday and 10.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

    USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.15 as nearly 68% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.24 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.1% lower than yesterday and 11.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.1% higher than yesterday and 1.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.2% stronger than yesterday and 9.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

    USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.78 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.31 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.5% higher than yesterday and 26.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 22.0% lower than yesterday and 25.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.8% weaker than yesterday and 4.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

    USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.84 as nearly 79% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.00 as 75% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.8% higher than yesterday and 8.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.0% lower than yesterday and 3.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.6% stronger than yesterday and 12.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

    AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.76 as nearly 64% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.22 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 24.1% lower than yesterday and 23.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.6% higher than yesterday and 7.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.6% weaker than yesterday and 8.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

    NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.43 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.20 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 38.8% lower than yesterday and 46.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.1% higher than yesterday and 3.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 18.9% weaker than yesterday and 30.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

    How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don’t necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

34. on 22 Oct 2009 at 1:06 am34radha

    Mike,Excellent Note.

    All : Can we put together some kind of a qualifying compatabile rules for people to join this blog. The reason is usefullness of this forum is negatively impacted when we have traders with varied emotional background and reactions when market moves against the expected forecasts. I think this will be a good start to get a homogeneous group which would be beneficial to all who have understood Drs strategy. For those who are not comfortable with the qualifying rules, the world is large and they have many other forums/ blogs to go to.

    I am making this suggestion in all humbleness and sincerity.

    Regards,
    Radha

35. on 22 Oct 2009 at 1:38 am35Ion

    I read Dr blog for almost one year and i try to learn as much as i can each day.
    I have one small problem with you people who blame this and that, you can not mentaly force Dr to tell you when to buy and when to seel. Is so easy go on his website and pay for.
    I am here to learn and to improve my forcast each day.
    I do not understand how you have time to blame Dr instead of use that time and blame yourself for the all bad moves. It is so easy to blame others for your bad moves and in my opinion is not fair at all firs for you and the last for Dr.
    Respect all.

36. on 22 Oct 2009 at 3:05 am36Jeeson Augustine

    Excellent Mike,
    Your date validates Dr view.
    And totally agree with Radha & Ion.
    There was a point about only technical trading works - especially with indicators. Even FX dummies will tell you that indicator is for what has happened not for the forecast. This point was proved yesterday when Stock declined but USD lost its ground with it (technical shows USD should gain).
    There is always “risk” involved in Finance and in FX there is a buyer & seller at any point, it is individual’s mindgame which role they take!!!

    Jeeson
    http://jeesonsviewoneconomyfinance.blogspot.com

37. on 22 Oct 2009 at 3:06 am37Jeeson Augustine

    please read Mike’s date as Mike’s data

38. on 22 Oct 2009 at 4:34 am38ATF

    Dear Doc,

    GBP/USD didnt showed a significant drop as you suggested earlier.
    Do you think it will drop today?

    Best Regards.

39. on 22 Oct 2009 at 5:00 am39Jeeson Augustine

    Latest projection from many experts are 1.7010. Dr are you seeing another 400 points UP.
    Thanks in Advance

40. on 22 Oct 2009 at 5:01 am40rich

    Jeeson, can you invite me to your blog??

41. on 22 Oct 2009 at 5:06 am41Ange

    Jeeson,
    would like to read your blog? would u care to invite?

42. on 22 Oct 2009 at 5:16 am42Pipsniper

    no webinar tonight????? Did Doc cancel? I would to if I were giving a webinar for free and got the type of bashing doc does. Oh well, good trading everyone. I expect stock market to go down again tomorrow. Could see some eur downside.

43. on 22 Oct 2009 at 5:17 am43CoolJ

    why no webinar today?

44. on 22 Oct 2009 at 5:19 am44balanced

    Markets can continue to move in the same direction and they do not just move is a range. Ranges are in summer months and continuations are in the winter months witch is a more continued direction. So trade accordingly. You are all fortunate you have someone like the good doctor who gives his advice to help at no charge. You have to make the decision at the end of the day so make sure it is your trade and not someone elses and then the only person to blame is your self - yourself and no one else.

45. on 22 Oct 2009 at 5:42 am45Erik

    Yesterday Dr said next webinar is on Monday.

46. on 22 Oct 2009 at 5:44 pm46Jaf

    Guys i am very surprised that my comments raised such emotions.I only reason i mentioned in this blog was because i am a follower of the Doc.I did not intend to insult him but was merely stating that if you got caught out in the trap laid by players you have to wait very long before you can out of it.I agree hedging is very good way to deal in this trading but it is good for swing trading not position trading.I guess i became complacent after getting it right a few times with DR s forecasts.However like today lately i was finding that his forecasts contradicted everyone just like today and his large drops never materialised just like his short E/US.I still trade and read the forecast but will use it as additional tool.However it is very tempting to follow his style but without entry and exit levels it is very dangerous.A sanguine investor

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