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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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Expected breakout on the consolidation

Posted on November 12, 2009 at 6:25 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

EURO and GBP made the swing and slide during yesterday US session to make again gain of levels to slide during start of japanese session.

Euro and GBP are expected to make swings between high and low during start of European session and slide till mid European session to drop quickly from mid till end of European session.Then swing during  gap time before US session and start of Us session and slide with some more drops in levels. Market shows low volume swings.The week end pressure could act on the players as well for them to lighten their positions.

Denominator currencies are expected to swing near low and then firm up slowly till week end.

regards

Dr.Sivaraman

 

44 Responses to “Expected breakout on the consolidation”

  1. on 12 Nov 2009 at 6:38 am1Francesco

    Good day Dr. Sivaraman,

    players are handling EUR and GBP at higher levels due to the low market volumes.
    Ultimately volumes will increase and probably we will be able to see the direction, if they will make it to cut the highs as AUD and GOLD did, or they will drop towards lover levels on eventual profit taking.

    I know whatever will be the case it might be hard yet to call numbers before we see the volumes, but my question is, since you were expecting a drop till mid November and further rise till year end, how this delay due to handling high levels is influencing or changing your previous forecast?

    Regards,

  2. on 12 Nov 2009 at 6:57 am2SirMcPip

    Dear Doctor

    With all due respect, the big slide will not materialize yet. And likely not until the beginning of next year. Euro has another choppy ride up for at least 200-300 pips while cable will test the 1,6950-1,7000 area first. This will happen before you can even think of the big drop. So for those who are (for whatever reason) still short from much lower levels, you have no choice but to wait. It was your own sovereign decision to follow those calls, so you dont have anyone else to blame.

    Regards

  3. on 12 Nov 2009 at 7:01 am3fxgauss

    today is most probably the day when we get a big move.yesterday it was just shy of 1.5059 to make it a double top.so lets focus.

  4. on 12 Nov 2009 at 7:04 am4Hercs

    SirMcPip,

    Could we correspond privately regarding your views, please?

    Thanks in advance for replying.

  5. on 12 Nov 2009 at 7:47 am5SirMcPip

    Hercs,

    forexclinic.mcpipatgmail.youknowwhat

  6. on 12 Nov 2009 at 7:57 am6TheJade1

    From yesterday’s call by SJ, I Short 3 lots of EUR/JPY and have liquidated my position with a few hundred dollars profits to start with for today. I am not sure if anyone else followed that and make some money. The details.
    11/11/2009 3:51:35 PM 7923799 Sell EUR/JPY -100,000.00 134.502000

    11/11/2009 3:56:11 PM 7923866 Sell EUR/JPY -100,000.00 134.532000

    11/11/2009 4:19:51 PM 7924365 Sell EUR/JPY -100,000.00 134.583000

    11/12/2009 2:49:31 AM 7939035 Buy EUR/JPY 300,000.00 134.432

    11/12/2009 2:49:31 AM Total: 357.79

  7. on 12 Nov 2009 at 8:03 am7smith

    Doc, this is the false move during gap time and it is worth buying here EUR and GBP?

  8. on 12 Nov 2009 at 8:05 am8TheJade1

    Another update on my trade following Dr’s expectation that EUR would drop. I have liquidated my Short position with a few hundred profits. These simple exercise I did before going to bed gave me about $700. Probably I am lucky.

    11/11/2009 2:37:33 PM 7922749 Sell EUR/USD -100,000.00 1.497270

    11/11/2009 3:51:21 PM 7923793 Sell EUR/USD -100,000.00 1.497720

    11/12/2009 3:01:53 AM 7940021 Buy EUR/USD 200,000.00 1.49577

    11/12/2009 3:01:53 AM Total: 345.00

  9. on 12 Nov 2009 at 8:27 am9Greg Wilson

    Hello Dr. Sivaraman. Re: “Expected breakout on the consolidation.” Very clear and concise, helpful when placing my GBPJPY this evening, as was the webinar talk this evening (US, PST). Many thanks.

  10. on 12 Nov 2009 at 8:34 am10frosty

    Jade, well done. Knowing that SJ gave a proper call that you made money on tells the others how it should be done.

    Sivaraman, the picture you paint today wil most likely occur opposite to your call:
    Also, today is important economic numbers, players will not be lightening their positions, they will be taking new positions. If you are suggesting that the long players will be lightening their positions, don’t you know distribution occurs on the way up, not on the way down.

  11. on 12 Nov 2009 at 8:42 am11SJ

    Exit short

  12. on 12 Nov 2009 at 8:53 am12Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Francesco
    there are two possibilities for the players to exit out of their longs- one by making unexpected drop - so that the buy orders of the scalpers could be filled,the second option rise and induce the short sellers to do short covering when they refuse to buy during drop.They have done several days the second option- the chances are bright for the first option now as traders developed the mind set to buy Euro and GBp near the statistical support expecting further weakening of USD.
    We may be able to understand which option they could make in the absence of short sellers by today and tomorrow.the forecast could get delayed- but without lower level consolidation with downward stop hunt they may not be able tio simply rise and rise- their purpose of making moves in the market is to earn.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  13. on 12 Nov 2009 at 8:54 am13frosty

    SJ, on which pair? I anticipate that EU still to make LL.
    BTW, I caught the high of GU and the high of EU yesterday, and reversed positions at their lows, all trades making big pips. Pips to you my friend.

  14. on 12 Nov 2009 at 8:58 am14Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear smith
    I have given the concepts and if you find it is reliable please follow that- they made the gap time dip and cut the low - a fase move and first 30 min of the session will show opposite move.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  15. on 12 Nov 2009 at 9:01 am15Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear frosty
    Your suggestions are taken - hence if the expectations go wrong I suggest the trading strategy to avoid market surprise and still earn from market moves.
    Regards
    DR.Sivaraman

  16. on 12 Nov 2009 at 9:12 am16SJ

    gbpcad short at market
    Euraud short at market
    gbpusd short at market

    stops 1.3x daily movement

  17. on 12 Nov 2009 at 9:13 am17Jam

    Dear Doctor,

    What would it mean for yearly reversal in eurusd - a drop or rise? Thank you

  18. on 12 Nov 2009 at 9:25 am18Saswata Banerjee

    SJ what is ur opinion on EURJPY. can it go up for stop hunt since u recommend to exit short?

  19. on 12 Nov 2009 at 9:32 am19frosty

    SJ, while I expect GU to drop further, this is not a good place to sell the market IMHO, and not at this time. I am neutral at this point having made very good pips already in EU and GU.

  20. on 12 Nov 2009 at 9:35 am20j.j

    sj you are an intruder barking with yr self go away find yr self other blog

  21. on 12 Nov 2009 at 9:49 am21mohi

    SJ, with these kind of support level, it makes sense to start your own blog. You probably already know this, you start one among others at https://www.blogger.com/start

    There are reasons why Individual experts have their own blogs at separate places. So far your call on eurjpy was good. I am sure some people want to see your own blog with your strategy etc. Why take space here. Best regards..

  22. on 12 Nov 2009 at 9:54 am22j.j

    sj regarding yr call Euro/Yen you copied from mizuho bank calls so dont claim it for yr self

  23. on 12 Nov 2009 at 9:55 am23frosty

    Sivaraman, excuse me if I omit the Dr., as I am of the same title, and as we are outside of academic and professional circles, and in the world of ruthless trading for money, I will do away with the nicities. Now that you raise a good point about suggesting trading strategy to avoid market surprise, that is the type of information which should be added to any market calls, and explained, instead of forecasting from black box, that I am sure your readers would benefit from. Quite franky you must take responsibility, as an educator and adviser, for perpetuating the myth that market forecasting on intraday basis is beneficial to new or seasoned traders. Within the context of, for example, strategy to benefit from opposite movements to expected movements, then your market calls, without the implied forecasting crystal ball type statements, would find value if accompanied by sound reasoning.

  24. on 12 Nov 2009 at 9:56 am24Pico

    Dear Dr Sivaraman,

    Very nice post about how the players exit out their long positions.
    Do you expect EURUSD will go near european higher level or asian lower level? Is there a good level to sell?

    Thank you!

  25. on 12 Nov 2009 at 10:04 am25sg

    SJ, Frosty and others of that ilk, kindly take your verbosity and alternative trading strategies to another blog site. Thank you

  26. on 12 Nov 2009 at 10:11 am26frosty

    sg, if you don’t like to read what others are saying, ignore it. You are not the owner of the blog and have no say about who should or should not be posting. Also, where have I indicted any of my, or alternate trading strategy. You really should think. Also, there is no way I would reveal my trading strategy here. Think about it.

  27. on 12 Nov 2009 at 10:12 am27j.j

    PLS any one of you traders or what ever you call yr self if you dont like this blog pls simply just go away and leave it to us and stop imposing yr view ,to give yr view hv yr owen blog ,this blog is Dr. Sivaraman

  28. on 12 Nov 2009 at 10:17 am28sg

    Thanks frosty, please go to another site for posting your comments. I dont really care about how you trade or your profits.

  29. on 12 Nov 2009 at 10:22 am29Pico

    Yes, it´s Dr. Sivaraman´s blog. It´s the reason i´m here.
    If you want to discuss other strategies, please do it in other place.

  30. on 12 Nov 2009 at 10:28 am30frosty

    sg, obviously my comments have upset you. Don’t worry, I will not be here posting more than I have as my main posts were directed to the respected blog owner. I see that SJ is in the middle of giving trade calls to prove a point only. My calls today and comments about how I did profit wise were directed to him only. Notice also he is not giving his strategy, but he is making calls to prove his point only. I already had proven my point by giving a trade call that was clear for all to see how to trade, and which worked out jut fine (although 1 trade only is no proof whatsoever, but I am sure many got the point). Again, if you don’t like to hear feedback, just ignore it. When there are rude or clearly wrong then I suggest you make your comments against other posters then. otherwise, let others benefit from the comments. I am sure Sivaraman does not just want to spoon feed followers, for if that is the type of people he is hoping to attract here, then enough said.

  31. on 12 Nov 2009 at 10:33 am31Pico

    frosty, what you don´t understood is that nobody here want you to prove nothing!

  32. on 12 Nov 2009 at 10:38 am32sg

    Frosty, Hmm… still dont care
    Thanks

  33. on 12 Nov 2009 at 10:40 am33Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear frosty and SJ

    thanks for your opinions and suggestions.If it causes irritation or distraction to others, that too in some one else premise,it is not wise to post again.
    there is an active forum available in fxstreet where any one can display their trading ideas.My humble request again is not to distract us.
    Already fxstreet administrators are reviewing the intrusions.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  34. on 12 Nov 2009 at 10:47 am34Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Pico
    Euro could rise to around initial low set during Japanese session ( 1.4979) before further slide.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  35. on 12 Nov 2009 at 10:48 am35Saswata Banerjee

    yes critics please proceed to the forums as Dr is not advising shorting. He is again and again telling to stick to the strategy and treat the forecast only as an added info and not the main cue.
    The strategy is the main thing and works best in intra day trades.

  36. on 12 Nov 2009 at 11:05 am36frosty

    Sivaraman, you have asked not to distract you. As it is your blog, I will not be posting again for you obviously do not wish dissenting comments on your blog.
    FxStreet administrators, I ask that you do not feel you need to remove my posts as I am sure it will help others, and hopefully also put the blog owner at no doubt that his blog can seriously hurt traders in it’s present form.
    This is not a dictatorial society on fxstreet, I hope that anyone seeing my posts will give it food for thought and not follow blindly this blog’s ‘forecasts’ or anyone else’s forecasts for that matter.
    May I remind the good blogger that good Karma comes from being true to oneself and giving.

  37. on 12 Nov 2009 at 11:15 am37j.j

    frosty you are so arrogant,just go and mind yr business

  38. on 12 Nov 2009 at 11:37 am38Jaf

    Dr That was a very good reply you gave francesco.In your opinion which levels do you think they have long,since we are assuming that they are gone long.I assume is it from 1.6250 levels which were the previous supports.I may be totally wrong

  39. on 12 Nov 2009 at 11:52 am39Arthur

    Frosty,
    Every person here is adult and responsible for his/her actions.You have once shown your point of view then why you are trying to spoon feed others.If somebody is not satisfied with this blog,he/she will simply not follow it.
    What’s the point crying again and again?

  40. on 12 Nov 2009 at 12:05 pm40Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear Jaf
    the players have most of their buys/sells about 200-300 pips from that of the low/high set for the season.They are known to drop and drop quickly and buy and rise and rise to book profit- Any way their averages will workout to make 50-100 pips on an average in their trades, as they make higher level buys during rise and also lower level sells during drop to build the buys and sells - hence the spread of their profit will be narrowed.hence they continue to make shift in trading zone from time to time.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  41. on 12 Nov 2009 at 12:30 pm41Jaf

    Thanks

  42. on 12 Nov 2009 at 12:33 pm42Jaf

    Doc What is high/low for season In GBP and Euro.Sorry for asking but i do not know season,I assume Oct/Dec

  43. on 12 Nov 2009 at 12:36 pm43sadyk

    I will always put the blame on fxstreet administrator, if other competitor site like yours are trying to cause distraction by sending or injecting human virus into your site you should try and get rid of them to avoid total damage. Those guys are virus being sponsored and allowing their post to be visualised will definitly reduce your credibility, so you better wake up and do something before it is too late, Doctor’s present here has made hundreds if not thousands to be visiting this site on daily basis, please wake up to this challenge.

  44. on 12 Nov 2009 at 2:18 pm44Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear smith
    they moved GBP from 1.57 area to 1.68.Season is 3 month time frame.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

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