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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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Can the slide and drop continue?

Posted on November 13, 2009 at 5:56 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

Euro and GBP made the slide and drop during yesterday US session.

Can the slide and drop continue?

Yes, it appears in the market - brief swings during session start,holding during mid session and slide towards close of the session could be seen in all the 3 sessions of the day.

Euro and GBP are expected to slide from the high to low and cut the low briefly during Japanese session.Then again they could gain to middle level and slide till mid session and drop towards close of the European session . some quick volatile moves during start of the US session and then continuation of hold and slide could be seen till close.

the week end close could indicate the possible moves for the next week.

Twin webinars

Today (13th Nov) I will be presenting tracking the forex market together webinars

part I - 09:00-09:45 GMT

Link to register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=561cdfdd-907a-4470-8b0b-1109de9f3e31

part II 15:00-15:45 GMT

Link to register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=002f5cf5-1fc0-406d-b810-624476202050

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

57 Responses to “Can the slide and drop continue?”

on 13 Nov 2009 at 5:59 am1Adnan Butt

Respected Dr,

thanks for updates

r u seeing eur/usd today testing 1.4750?

thanks

Adnan Butt
on 13 Nov 2009 at 6:04 am2rich

Anyone else notice that this SJ guy seems to show up after a prolonged holding period and just before a reverse?
on 13 Nov 2009 at 7:04 am3Chris

Cant say i’ve noticed
on 13 Nov 2009 at 7:05 am4Chris

Dr Sivaraman. will eur/gbp take a trip back to 9050 today at some point?
on 13 Nov 2009 at 7:22 am5TheJade1

After making good profits in selling EUR/USD yesterday, I made a turn to buy EUR/USD instead. I follow the above expectation of Dr’s and liquidated my position with a tiny profit to short EUR/USD at 1.4872. Currently my EUR/USD Short position is negative. Let’s see what will happend in the next 12-24 hours.By the way, USD/JPY is the best pair to make money. Wish you all good luck.

11/12/2009 10:16:14 AM 7958936 Buy EUR/USD 100,000.00 1.488980

11/12/2009 2:43:16 PM 7972708 Buy EUR/USD 100,000.00 1.486530

11/12/2009 3:30:48 PM 7974694 Buy EUR/USD 100,000.00 1.484100

11/13/2009 1:13:08 AM 7986073 Sell EUR/USD -300,000.00 1.48702

11/13/2009 1:13:08 AM Total: 145.00
on 13 Nov 2009 at 7:31 am6leon

Do you See a further slide in EUR/USD ? and to which levels?
on 13 Nov 2009 at 7:51 am7TheJade1

My 2 cents worth - I see EUR/USD should cut yesterday’s low (1.4820) to confirm a major drop of above 100 pips. However, the possibility of it going North is more than 50%.
on 13 Nov 2009 at 7:53 am8pipso

Dear Doctor, Is it true that lack of GU drop lately indicates that there is another drop/slide due in both GU and EU? Any rise would merely be a stophunt? IS that how you see it Doctor? Thank you
on 13 Nov 2009 at 7:58 am9gough

Dear TheJade1

Thank you for your calls/views..but Please let Dr. Sivaraman do all the calling here..
Your views on leves/Calls could be distracting to others.

Thank you for your understanding
on 13 Nov 2009 at 8:02 am10gough

Based on Dr’s teachings…GU is in the process of upward stophunt from yesterday’s intial high (1.6624)20 pips..and was done in GAP time so looks like a false move..it should drop/slide from now..
on 13 Nov 2009 at 8:05 am11carlab

Dc: GU as usually happens plays its own game, so higher USD overall looks in danger. Cut ydy highs. Do you expected to revisit ydy lows again today at 1.6515? Tks very much
on 13 Nov 2009 at 8:16 am12Amey

Constantin Lucian

I had join your blog through the link you had send to me.But I cant comment on your post.Please if you are able to read this post hepl me.!!!

Thanks
on 13 Nov 2009 at 8:18 am13Greg Wilson

GU has gone 100 pips since early Asian session.
on 13 Nov 2009 at 8:40 am14Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear all
Extended stop hunt was shown during European session start.Also more rise in GBP and less rise in EURO is to drop eurio/GBP later they are expected to slide.
I will explain during the webinar further details.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 13 Nov 2009 at 8:46 am15Greg Wilson

Thank you, Dr.
on 13 Nov 2009 at 8:54 am16j.j

Dear Dr.sivaraman thank you
on 13 Nov 2009 at 8:56 am17Orlando

I will be taking notes of today’s webinars and uploading to http://www.tinyurl.com/iknowdoc
on 13 Nov 2009 at 10:34 am18gough

Orlando, Very much appreciate your efforts..Thanks.
on 13 Nov 2009 at 10:56 am19Jetsetter

Doctor,
I do follow your blog with interest, upon advice of someone who made serious money from it. However, let’s take a look a a couple of your recs:
1. today — slide and drop in EUR and GBP: “Euro and GBP are expected to slide from the high to low and cut the low briefly during Japanese session.”
Well, Euro was at 1.4820 at 20.30 GMT yesterday and at 1.4898 at 0900 GMT — does this look like a slide and drop? It is at 1.4870 now.
2. USD/JPP — confined to 89.90-90.20 range, you say.
Well, same time frame — from 90.40 to 89.68.

GBP/USD — 1.6560 to 1.6697.

What do you say? This is not to challenge you — I want to learn — but perhaps your could expain how you derive your recommmendations so everyone can make an informed decision on whether to follow or abstain and also to explain what went wrong when and if it does. I posted my detailed questions on this subject earlier but was not blessed with a response from you.

Thanks!
on 13 Nov 2009 at 11:01 am20Jetsetter

Oh, and one more thing — you posted today’s blog at 5.56 AM, but you must already have seen all of the above — the same trends albeit with different numbers… I am wondering: why? Comments, anyone?
on 13 Nov 2009 at 11:04 am21Arthur

Dear Dr,
Thanks very much for the webinar.
Here are two querries.Please either reply here or in part 2 of the webinar.(Whichever is convenient to you).
1. Is there a way to refine entry to reduce stop/ES to 15 pips?
2. One has to close 1st hedge if there is loss in 30 min of observation.What about 2nd hedge if it also makes loss in 1st 30 min of observation?
Thanks in advance for your time and effort.
on 13 Nov 2009 at 11:40 am22Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Jetsetter
I have explained earlier that the forecast is derived from that of the algorithm.it may be right or wrong.So to confirm and fine tune I use the ‘market reading using the the types of moves they make during sessions and gap times.besides I also use hedging trading strategy to limit the risk and maximize the profit.I use hedging order when the position makes loss and use the trailing stop after keeping stop at entry when the position makes profit.
1.Today the slide was expected by the forecast.but actually Euro and GBP cut the high and went above after brief drop by 6-7 GMT.So it indicated the players got lot of lower level sells from traders and hence the rise.The expected rise happened but bigger during early European session.So I was waiting for the new high to be set by comparing with initial high and also observing the net change for the day.Gbp rised 100+ pips net change and euro rised around 55 pips net change.
I took the sell positions near European session high during Tracking the forex market webinar expecting the slide from mid European session.Still I keep 30 pips hedging order to limit the risk.Once the position makes about 15-25 pips profit I keep stop at entry and remove the hedging order (here I use hedging order instead of stop).So I use the algorithm based forecast,market readings as tools to fine tune and still take limited risk at a given time in trading.
2.The players make the moves differently depending up the pending unfavorable positions of the traders.

hence I give the forecast as expected market moves- that may come true or the market can move against the expectations.Then I give update as modified expected market moves following the market reading.I also explain how to read the market during the webinars as well.I also explain from time to time here and during webinars how to limit the risk and maximize the profit.
Ultimately we are all traders and aim to earn from the market.we follow several methods to take trading decisions.Mine is obne such method.the forecast derivation could vary from analysis to analyst.But market reading and trading strategies may not vary much.
So I recommend to take very less position and earn consistently rather than over trading and becoming addict to trading.It is not possible to expect that the market should not move against my expectations.it may or may not move in tandem with forecast expectations.the probability of occurance is important to make use of the forecast.
I am still working to fine tune the forecast model- it is a continuem- as the market continue to change its behavior from time to time due to volume variation.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 13 Nov 2009 at 11:41 am23pipso

Dear TheJade1, your style of trading may not suit most as I remember sometimes in October you complained about eurusd in opposite direction, still is, you being -60k at that time. But you obviously know whats best for you. Regards
on 13 Nov 2009 at 12:05 pm24Greg Wilson

Great post, Dr. I’ve copied it and added to my keep file. As a note, EU AND GU have been consolidating approx. 10-15 pips of the daily high so far. Quite frequently when price hits a consolidaition plateau in an up or down move (e.g., intra-day trend), it indicates a pause or resting place before price heads up or continues down again. It is true that the current GU high hasn’t been cut for over two hours and that a sell position would appear warranted, and when one additionally factors in the soon to be reached psychologial 1.6700, one would imagine a lot of sellers camped there. But at this point GU to be pushing still upward vs. downward. 1.6700 was just breached as I write this. We should soon find out how strong the players positions are to the downside or continuing upside. Regards
on 13 Nov 2009 at 12:21 pm25Jetsetter

Dear Dr. Sivaraman — thank you for the quick comeback on this. Let me digest before possibly commenting; however, I believe that this has been useful not only to me but to other readers — as you can see from Greg’s subsequent post.
Thanks and regards
on 13 Nov 2009 at 12:30 pm26Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Greg Wilson
yes the price action will tell us their intetions whether it is false or true.if they rise and hold and onkly do in 1 pair a stop hunt - they want traders to get fear,if they hold high and cut one by one in all pairs the highs or lows- then they want to take the market up further.
Now only in gbp they made the stop hunt and cut psychological level before the reverse.So calm reading of their action can explain most of the market misteries to us.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 13 Nov 2009 at 12:47 pm27smith

Doc, the buy order that you placed during the webinar regarding USDJPY is almost filled. but do you think the current level is good for position trading as well? I mean, can we expect a bigger rise or just prolonged consolidation in USDJPY in the coming days or in Nov?
on 13 Nov 2009 at 12:56 pm28Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear smith
Yes I also view the same.They are expected to rise usd/yen to change the market sentiment after prolonged contrarian moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 13 Nov 2009 at 1:13 pm29TheJade1

Pipso,
I waited for almost a month, through averaging I finally cleared my position on 3 Nov. I got about $2.4K profits from the 9 lots. I haved also cleared my EUR/JPY with profits and took losses from EUR/GBP.
My Open Positions as of 22 Oct.
Product Net Position Avg. Rate Net P/L
EUR/GBP -200,000.00 0.888460 -5,232.45
EUR/USD -900,000.00 1.466991 -32,543.10
EUR/JPY -600,000.00 132.241167 -32,723.19

The details of my 9 lots of EUR/USD
10/5/2009 11:47:19 AM 6601828 Sell EUR/USD -100,000.00 1.462320

10/5/2009 11:55:48 AM 6602443 Sell EUR/USD -100,000.00 1.463490

10/5/2009 11:56:53 AM 6602516 Sell EUR/USD -200,000.00 1.463800

10/5/2009 12:56:14 PM 6604729 Sell EUR/USD -100,000.00 1.464040

10/5/2009 1:17:09 PM 6605370 Sell EUR/USD -100,000.00 1.464490

10/5/2009 2:47:12 PM 6608330 Sell EUR/USD -100,000.00 1.465520

10/9/2009 6:29:40 AM 6766135 Sell EUR/USD -100,000.00 1.473150

10/12/2009 10:37:31 AM 6817919 Sell EUR/USD -100,000.00 1.478710

11/3/2009 6:05:31 AM 7605681 Buy EUR/USD 900,000.00 1.46391

11/3/2009 6:05:31 AM Total: 2,413.00
on 13 Nov 2009 at 1:19 pm30JLo

Dear Dr.
Do you think EUR/US will drop to 1.4250 in one day……?
on 13 Nov 2009 at 1:27 pm31Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear JLo

they can rise or drop mostly 150 pips net change in a day and 350 pips in a week.but your level is far off from current level.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 13 Nov 2009 at 1:31 pm32JLo

Dear Dr.
Thanks for the advise, then how long would you expect, 1, 2 or 3 months, if were to drop, and based on the current market scenario, do you think it will drop by this year?
on 13 Nov 2009 at 1:31 pm33j.j

Dear Dr. Sivaraman hi ,pls adv on how you see now GBP/$.
Regards
on 13 Nov 2009 at 1:31 pm34TheJade1

Pipso,
Here is the details of the 6 lots of EUR.JPY. I waited for 3-4 weeks to turn the over $30K losses into about $5K profits. The EUR/GBP set me down by about $5K.
10/9/2009 9:03:26 AM 6772477 Sell EUR/JPY -100,000.00 131.374000

10/9/2009 10:02:36 AM 6775771 Sell EUR/JPY -100,000.00 131.594000

10/9/2009 10:09:15 AM 6776535 Sell EUR/JPY -100,000.00 131.741000

10/9/2009 10:15:29 AM 6777138 Sell EUR/JPY -100,000.00 131.845000

10/9/2009 12:56:42 PM 6785884 Sell EUR/JPY -100,000.00 131.931000

10/15/2009 8:51:38 AM 6949043 Sell EUR/JPY -100,000.00 134.752000

11/1/2009 5:25:48 PM 7522683 Buy EUR/JPY 600,000.00 131.465

11/1/2009 5:25:48 PM Total: 4,972.94
on 13 Nov 2009 at 1:34 pm35pipso

The Jade1, You have done well. Only best wishes for you, obviously be careful, it can be wiped out if not careful. Regards
on 13 Nov 2009 at 1:36 pm36Arun Kandyal

Hi Sir
GBP is still holding high Do you still expect drop and see below 1.6600 today thx.
Regards
Arun Kandyal
on 13 Nov 2009 at 1:46 pm37Greg Wilson

Thank you for your reply to my post, Dr. Sivaraman. I had to think through a bit what you were saying. To repeat it back in my own terms, if the players hold price near the current high, and the cut the highs and lows in all majors, they intend to move the market up or down further depending on the currency. Okay, I think I’ve got it. Question: GU has been in a consolidation pattern from 1.6654 to 1.6700 for about 5 hrs, including the current candle. Does this tell you that the players are holding price at current level near the high, and here is my question, so that they may move GU higher throughout the US session? If so, what with the weekend looming, doesn’t that suggest a possible longer term move into the new week? Put another way, should a trader even consider a sell or short position at this point? Momentum has been very slow after the earlier upside move. Have traders already walked away from the market for the weekend? A lot of questions, but the motives of players seems fuzzy. Regards

Regards
on 13 Nov 2009 at 2:09 pm38TheJade1

Following my reversal from Long to Short Euro as per the expectation, I have liquidated my position with some profits as per the following. Hope many of you have got some profits as well.
11/13/2009 1:52:18 AM 7986842 Sell EUR/USD -100,000.00 1.4872

11/13/2009 2:00:30 AM 7987229 Sell EUR/USD -100,000.00 1.48717

11/13/2009 3:26:34 AM 7990470 Sell EUR/USD -100,000.00 1.48888

11/13/2009 9:05:18 AM 8001632 Buy EUR/USD 300,000.00 1.48543

11/13/2009 9:05:18 AM Total: 696.00
on 13 Nov 2009 at 2:51 pm39twitter-fxi

The link/pwd to the second part of today’s session isn’t on the home page. Could someone please put it here in the blog. Didn’t seem to get the info via email either.

TIA
Twitter-FXI
on 13 Nov 2009 at 3:02 pm40twitter-fxi

Forget it……. I found it & see that the other guy is almost done.
on 13 Nov 2009 at 4:16 pm41Arun Kandyal

Hi Sir
I just attended the last part of webinar could you please tell about GBP. Do you still expect below 1.6600 today or they may cut the high thx.
Regards
Arun Kandyal
on 13 Nov 2009 at 4:20 pm42Arthur

Dear Dr,
Perhaps you forgot to answer my above questions during the webinar.I am reproducing below.Plesae give your views:
1. Is there a way to refine entry to reduce stop/ES to 15 pips?
2. One has to close 1st hedge if there is loss in 30 min of observation.What about 2nd hedge if it also makes loss in 1st 30 min of observation?
Thanks in advance for your time and effort.
on 13 Nov 2009 at 4:28 pm43Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear JLo
Since wide range swings are seen not big long liquidation move could happen today - may be from monday.But towards year end i am expecting the rise again in euro and gbp.the downward trend reversal could happen in 1-2 weeks.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 13 Nov 2009 at 4:29 pm44Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear j.j & Arun Kandyal
they are making wide range swings as week end move to attracvt buy orders without cutting high- they could slowly slide again.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 13 Nov 2009 at 4:30 pm45leon

Hi Doc.
You Said that EUR/USD will fall today but it is still in the positive level. can you give an idea?
on 13 Nov 2009 at 4:38 pm46Dr. S. Sivaraman

Dear Arthur
I did not have much time to read all questions during webinar.
1.Yes ,when you understand the intermediary swing spread between high and the intermediary low - say 15-25 pips from high - next time when they come closer you see whenther they stay near and not cut the high for 10-30 min then take sell.then you can keep 15-20 pips hedging order also.
2.If the second hedge is filled - then if it makes profit- wait for1;30 -2:00 Hrs and try to close the hedging around the new high or 150 pips net change level if they make and then keep another hedging order 30 pips above to limit the risk.You can take another sell 100-150 pips avocve initial sell and close both the sells below their average.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 13 Nov 2009 at 4:39 pm47smith

Doc, gold is keep on rising again, yesterday’s move is erased. I am holding shorts but I am starting to be frustrated again. It is unable to go below 1100 until now but I still hold on.
on 13 Nov 2009 at 4:46 pm48Dr. S. Sivaraman

dear smith
it is pull back strategy to get improved buy orders to fill later.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
on 13 Nov 2009 at 5:35 pm49leon

And the EUR is +0.5% higher According to your falling expectations and forecasts?
on 13 Nov 2009 at 5:51 pm50Arthur

Dear Dr,
Thanks for the reply.
I would repeat that your market insight is second to none and your strategy seems very good.However forecast is not working on shorter terms though it might be valid on long term basis.
on 13 Nov 2009 at 6:21 pm51Jetsetter

Hi all,
Just to share, I put in 4 mini lots exactly per Dr.’ recommendations from this PM’s webinar — hell, I can risk a 120 bucks I am now stopped out of two of them: long USD/CHF @1.0146 (closed at 1.0115) and short Eur/USD @1.4873 (closed at 1.4903), this within 90 minutes of the webinar ending. The USD/CAD long opened even lower than recommended @1.0505, at 1.0499 and is currently in red. the USD/JPY is at the moment square. Need I say more? I’d be curious to hear the feedback, though.
on 13 Nov 2009 at 6:43 pm52leon

Yah Jetsetter.
This is what happens when you follow a mad?
on 13 Nov 2009 at 7:33 pm53Jetsetter

Hey Leon — let’s stick to facts, they speak for themselves, no need for labels. Incidentally, I disagree with this one. I am sure this Sivaraman’s strategies can be useful — let’s just learn how. From that angle, I’d be keen to hear Dr’s perspective as well.
on 13 Nov 2009 at 7:54 pm54Santosh

good one Jetsetter,

Now that is what I call a reasonable and civil person
on 14 Nov 2009 at 1:10 am55Jetsetter

Thanks, SANTOSH. I’ll post the outcome of the other two, then we can all chat about it. However —

DOCTOR — it might be interesting to see your historical P&L published on a continuous basis, for skeptics and adepts alike, just like some of your brothers in arms do (although I am under-whelmed with theirs :). So far, on the just now recently 4 trades, it’s 50/50 — a coin flip?
on 14 Nov 2009 at 1:50 am56Jetsetter

SJ
Same to you if you want to challenge the owner of this blog!
on 14 Nov 2009 at 9:14 am57leon

And who so ever do not except the fact all of you know what he/she might be but which one saw a fall yesterday in EUR/USD?

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