Operators' intentions read by 
EURO and GBP are making prolonged higher level swings.
They were expected to make swing and slide move during Japanese session and firm up during early european session and slide from mid European session.US session they are expected to make swing and slide.
But they are making higher level swings with upward and downward stop hunts during different sessions of the day.
Upward stop hunt may give enter sell and diownward stop hunt could give exit or profit taking in intra-day trades.
Position trading may not be easy as the holding high and higher level swings are seen for the earlier lower level short sellers to do short covering - short squeeze moves are seen.
Do your own market analysis and take trading decisions depending upon the time available for trading,available usable margin and facility like hedging,trailing hedging and trailing stop in the trading platform.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Hi Doc, you mentioned in the webinar that if Euro/USD does not cut the high in the european session we could expec a good drop in the US session. Do you still stand be this statement?
Doc, USDJPY has formed a new daily low. can we expect furter drop? perhaps a lot of stops are under 88.50 area…
Dear jimbo
yes,if euro high 1.4998 is not breached till mid European session - the chances of EURO cutting low of today and drop to 1.4820 area is high.Then GBP could follow the slide.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Dr,
I am all praise for your market insight, trading and money management strategies. It looks you have studied market well. Your averaging strategy is good for all market conditions.
It seems (I believe it, though scientifically speaking, use the word” seems”) that the players manipulate market and stop hunts are also a reality.
Thanks for this whole new concept.
Your trading style is OK for position or long term trading but doesn’t suit a day trader. From day trading perspective, it is very hard to bear 30 pips loss in every trade. And if hedged, it takes too long to get out of it.
However, when it comes to the forecast, it is not working. I, being a computer science student, would say that no algorithm can produce better result then its inputs.
The only absolute value in your system is net change because, supposedly, its alteration needs prior permission. Rest of the input data seems to be comprised of hatrick rules, yearly, monthly and weekly trend reversals, gap time moves. These can be as reliable or unreliable as support/resistance/trend lines because these can be respected or violated by the market any time. Moreover, as per your own teaching, it’s the volume, which determines day to day/session to session moves and it is not incorporated in the algorithm. On top of all, Astro Physics is also included and it is the most unverifiable phenomenon.
In this situation how reliable an algorithm can be?
(Only in today’s webinar, you, to some extent, accepted that forecast is not working properly)
I am done with these forecasts and will never follow them however I will keep listening to webinars and visiting the blog to learn about long term trends and other concepts.
By the way, as you yourself talk about Psychology in your webinars, did you ever think that, for the traders, how harmful and misleading can be your 200% confident, full of conviction and infallible style about the forecast? With this style and all those explicit rules (Gap times false moves,30 min-2 hrs etc ), how a trader, especially newer one, can stop his/her mind from not being influenced by the “SUGGESTION”?
I also heard you in today’s webinar saying that you now don’t expect drop in EUR/USD. So what would be the strategy for those holding lower level shorts (1.4400 area) acting on your forecast?
(This post has nothing to do with yesterday’s big moves. It was contemplated and compiled before that).
Arthur
The forecast does work from time to time, I would grade it around 60% mark, which is much better than an average trade of a newbie. For some reasons, new traders take trades and loose around 90% times, so in that sense it is worth following that with some strategy. One is here to make money, so if something is taking is too long, one shouldnt be blaming Doc etc. He cannot perform magic.
I too learnt it hard way. I am sure Doc is loosing bit patient too. I remember when GU hit 1.7 few months ago, from that point Doc’s forecast hasnt been great, but before that a period of few months, it was absolutely spot on. I can guaratee that. I multiplied my account many times over at that period.
One mustnt forget (not to u Arthur), Doc is 55+ year old according to his website and achieved a lot, so please be respectful when addressing him. Thank you
Dr.Sivaraman’s model is always useful and valid.
It has just been hard to practice in a low volumes market that leads higher volatility.
Take gold for example -though is the most extreme thing to touch at the moment- is almost impossible to use a stop, and also hard to hedge because it keeps gaining levels without giving a chance to take a safe position even on the buy side.
Who would not be afraid of a shoort squeeze now?
And who can be sure it will retrace instead?
Though timing is very important, and forecast have an acceptable limit, the suggestion to observe the market (the longer probably the better) before acting and using the support of daily highs and low are very precious ones.
Dr.Sivarman, according to these thoughts, do you agree that on a daily basis is probably better to operate from mid european session and through us session (taking japanese session as an observation standing point) in order to have a better idea of the market trend and being able to operate closer to the daily highs and lows?
Regards,
Hi Doctor. please clarify explicitly whether the statement quoted by Arthur is indeed your revised forecast for euro. “…don’t expect a drop in euro”
by ‘drop’ I understand it to be the major drop ie. below 1.45
Regards
Dear Pipso,
Thanks for the reply.
I know you didn’t addressed it to me yet I want to reiterate that I have utmost respect for the doctor and he has earned it by showing his remarkable knowledge about the markets.
I only tried to highlight the limitations.Perhaps it might be helpful in improving/fine tuning the forecast system.
Hi Sir
Are you still expecting a good slide in GBP.Do you see GBP 1.6700 today thx.
Regards
Arun Kandyal
Dear Dr.
It would be great if you could post your updated (revised) forecast for Euro & GBP for the rest of 2009 since many traders here possibly holding lower level shorts like 1.45 - 1.46 and 1.62-1.64 area respectively.
Many Thanks.
Dear Arthur
I have 2 programs developed to get the forecast.
1.algorithm - it uses exclusive data pertaining to the phase effect of electro-magnetic impulses and their influence on human decision making from time to time.It works very similar to calander.As we see in the calander we can derive the expected market moves every 30 min to any number of years.
2.The second program is market reading to determine the levels- That I am explainihg here every time.We need the imput as the last close price and can derive the possible highs and lows for the session,day,week,month and year.These are weighted moving average levels without the volume variation.So I fine tune in depending up on the previous session move the next session expected move and spread.
Program 1 gives the timings and progranm 2 gives the expect5ed levels.Like other statistical estimates - I also get the levels and there could be deviations - the standard error or normal deviate.Keeping all the calculations I am giving the postings in simplest form so that the traders can use it as an additional imput in their market reading and benefit.But off late I find blindly new comers take positions based on the suggested moves and fail to close the positions with profit or use the trading strategy like hedge and spend their time in pointing fingers on others without taking any astep to limit the risk.
In conventional technical analysis we can derive the support and resistances,but we may not be able to say which one will come in the market to do either buy and sell trade or sell and buy trade.As an additional imput I am giving the possible moves -which one could come first and then the second - either support is reached first or the resistance.
trade plan and contigency measures how to arrest unlimited loss are very while entering into a trade.
Mere forecast alone can never help a trader becoming successful.Hence I also give trading strategies.When i give all the info in public like this obviously the players could learn about it and change their trap plans as well.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
somebody tweeting : “Dollar index has broken above inverse head & shoulder patterns neck line on hourly..Dollar looks strong”
Doc, if you say EUR has 150 pips daily potency, do you mean from start of day level, or between intraday High and Low swings?
Hello sir,
I have a short position EURUSD at 1.4810. Are you looking at those levels to be achieved today?
Please advice.
Thank you,
Piyush.
Dear Francesco
there are times we find best entry time during Japanese session.Now we find entry time during US session.later we may find good trading conditions during US session.it continues to changesfrom time to time.We can identify the potencies based on the high and low set during Japanese session with out contrarian moves, as either usd weakening or usd gaining moves.Then the trading opportunity could be seen from Japanese session onwards.In my understanding,every session there could be some swing trade opportunity if we try to restrict the trade within the session.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Arun Kandyal
Without cutting the high in EURO the drop has happened in late European session.There is a good chance it could continue during US session with nominal pull back during session change time.
Dear gough
When the market makes the move away from the higher level consolidation i will rework and give the possible long term moves for the remaining weeks of this year.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Erik
the potencies are the net change levels - ie from the previous day close level.it can be seen as net change in live market quote page.
Regards
dr.Sivaraman
Dear traders
If YOU are unsure of a course of action, do NOT attempt it. Your doubts and hesitations will infect your execution.
PLAN ALL THE WAY TO THE END
The ending is everything. Plan all the way to it, taking into account all the possible consequences, obstacles, and twists of fortune that might reverse your hard work and give the glory to the players. By planning to the end you will not be overwhelmed by circumstances and you will know when to stop. Planning helps to determine the future by thinking ahead.
It is we who guide affairs and hold them in power; but so often once they are set in motion, it is they which guide us and sweep us along.
How much easier it is never to get in than to get yourself out!
Most people, however, lose less from overplanning than from vagueness and tendency to improvise constantly in the face of circumstance.
If you are clear and far thinking enough, you will understand that the future is uncertain, and that you must be open to adaptation.
ONLY HAVING A CLEAR OBJECTIVE AND FAR-REACHING PLAN ALLOWS YOU THAT FREEDOM.
Your humble student
amazing how accurate an indicator the amount of ppls whining is:)
i could probably make a ton of money just reversing the position once whining picks up:)
Dear Dr,
Thanks for taking out time to read my post and to reply in detail.
Let me repeat one thing: I have no doubt about your capability to read market.In fact I think you would be the only person who understood how the market works.It is also highly appreciable that you daily take out time for webinars and to regularly update the blog and that too for free.I don’t think any other person is doing that on regular basis.
I know you are able to read markets movements to the pip.I remembered your few updates about exact timings of stop hunts and they did happen during that period.I am also sure you would never have incurred any loss in any position due to your strategy.Simalarly you are able to determine the change in markets because you update the blog if there are any changes.
The proof of your theory, that markets are manipulated by the players, can be seen in the alternate movements of EUR/USD and GBP/USD.They used to move in tandem but now within a session, they move alternatively whithout any reason nor economies change within sessions.
It is also commendable that atleast you tried to quantified the market by developing the algorithm.
However when any person,including myself, hear the word “algorithm”, one thinks that nothing can go wrong because algorithms are supposed to give consistently correct answers.Thats why I tried to mention the shortcomings.As far as reliability is concerned, you yourself have got doctorate in statistics, so you know how to measure the performance objectively.
So again I will say your knowledge and strategy are second to none but results of forecasts are not great.
NOTE:You are right in saying that players can also change their strategy: Who can stop them from making a false move outside of gap times or not to cut high/lo after 2 hours!!
Regards
Dear Arthur
You can see how they let losse the market when the time comes.Players are also human and they also have all the feelings similar to traders.But they have huge money power and that is lacking among traders.but the players are more impulsive than traders as their exposures are huge- if they miss they may come to street.Hence they act in the grip of greed and players are mostly in the grip of fear.that is the only difference.The players are not immortal.many players join from time to time and go away from the syndicate.So the only virtue in trading is patience.To get full control on trading without the fear or greed only need to take very less positions and close the positions with profit using trading strategies and think of next trade.if we shift from one currency to another and just because some one has made money in a cross if we jump into that pair without understanding the intricacies then we invite trouble.
My humble suggestion to traders who read the blog are:
1.take very less position at a given time- either only in euro/usd or gbp/usd.Expose 1% of the equity as maximum for position taking.
2.Use hedging order to limit the risk and trailing stop to maximize the profit.
3.Try to develop the market insight and over all picture of the market moves and trade calmly
4.Donot have any bias for buy and sell or sell and buy trades.View the currencies as tradable without any sentimental attachment.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Dr,
Once again thanks for replying and for your suggestions.
I have closed some demo positions which were taken after your Friday webinar.I averaged them and was able to breakeven.However in the process I didn’t earn any thing despite large moves! Now if during drop I try to take position, it won’t be wise and again I might end up doing averaging…sure there won’t be any loss but again no earning for a long time!!
This is the problem with hedging or averaging from day trading perspective. Don’t know what to do!!
Arthur, Doc gives the strategy for closing hedged position for profit.
One way is if hedge is making profit then you can close it after market discontinues cutting high/low for 30min-2hr and average your position, and keep entry stop 30 pips away. To do this, you must mindful of your margin and not overtrade.
Orlando,
Thanks for the reply but this is my whole point.
For me, as a day trader 30 pips loss/hedging is too much to risk on a trade..I tried hedging..either you have to bear loss or you have to keep managing the positions for days..again at the end break even but no earning as well..thats why I am saying this strategy is not best for small day trader though works well for position/long term trading.
For Dr, it might not be problem coz he knows the market movments.He can close hedge at appropriate time but for common tader there is more risk of blocking pips or accepting loss.
Dear Arthur
small traders can adopt safe trade strategies,what I explain as basic trading strategy during webinar - sell near high or buy near low if the high or low are not cut for 30 min from start of a session.You can use hedging to limit the risk rather than using it for trading.once the position makes profit of 15-20 pips - keep stop at entry and trail keeping a limit of 45 -75 pips,so that the market may close your position with profit either by hitting ttrailing stop or the limit.Then wait for next session start.If during start of the session the market cuts the high then wait for 2 hrs to tske position or wait to watch the next session start.
So if you spend more time in watching the market and chose the safe trades the equity could build up.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear Dr. Sivaraman hi, would you pls adv. on how you see the GBP/$ .
Regards
Thanks Dr. I have been trying all your strategies but there is no such thing as safe trades because market doesn’t seem to behave according to these rules.Had it been the case then trading would have been the easiest of jobs on this earth.
Anyhow thanks for all your time today.
dear j.j
GBP/USD is expected to slide after EURO as they players are sliding euro/gbp now.Once GBP goes below low 1.6750 area the selling could come in in more quantity.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Doc, we can see USD gaining move today, but the gold is unable to make a good correction just slow slide. Can we expect other upward stop hunt or it may drop? how long can the players make higher level consolidation?
regards,
smith
The whole issue boils down to th fact that last 3 months, doc forecasts have been going off. and quite a few of us, have been following his forecasts. the reason being , the belief that the more knowledgeable person is the best to follow.
I also have lost money ,but still impulsively log into fxstreet.com to see what the predictions are.
I am glad some contributors have made money. but i have liquidated a i mio stg position at 1.59 . IAm not blaming the doc for it, since ultimatley i decide on the trade. but , the docs views contibute a lot in mine & others pulling the trigger. so u see , i would as arthur said expect the doc to revisit his algorithm
If 30 pips loss is a catastrophic event for you, then this is obviously not the strategy you should be using. And if you trade 2 pairs, that will be 60 pips max loss. There is no way you should be taking more loss than that under Doc’s strategy, per Doc’s daily recommendations.
I have wiped out my account before for the same reasons everybody does: 1) Trading too large 2) Trading too much 3) Not trailing my profit.
Will the selling continue tomorrow? thanks
Dear Doctor, Your forecast on usdjpy please
Dear smith
GBP and Gold could be the last pairs to slide as they can create bullish feel using them,so that traders could come for buying during drop.
Now it appears the players are losing patience to some extent as the volume drains.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear grow
Yes -expected.
still they could handle euro/gbp and then come to euro and gbp swing and slide moves.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Dear pipso
USD/YEN is expected by the algorithm to rise quickly tomorrow and bring change in market sentiment.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Thank you very much for your answer and help
Thanks Doctor
Dr. Sivaraman ,thank you so muh
dear doc, do you expect a significant drop in g-u to around 1.61? Also you mentioned the surprise in u-j - what do you think the sentiment will deliver?
many thnaks to doc and all participants
is that guy with the 1.44 euro short still holding? getting closer now!
Great calls this week Dr. Many thanks for your patience.
Dear Dr,
Just to keep the record straight:
You, above, advised me to take positions after 30 min of session start.Today ,at start of US session Eur cut low after 30 min and again cut it after staying at another level for an hour.What would have happened to the positions if taken as per this strategy?
And coming out of hedging would have been another problem.
So how this could be helpful in day trading?
You being, statistician, can log how many times market respects this strategy.
Another dilemma: forecast said swing and slide during this session then how one could take sell position near low? and this conflict is almost present every day.
the forces of buying on dips are still working…it was a good chance for the players of offloading their buy positions… so they can freely rise the market above the earlier supports
Dear maxi
GBP is expected to first slide to 1.66 area.Once it goes below we can estimate the low during this downward move.
Regards
dr.sivaraman
Dear Arthur
Euro was far away from that of high during start of US session and it was trading below earlier initial high of Japanese session from start of US session - then only a technical trade of sell below initial low will apply.Please understand you study so many things in a subject.in the exam what ever be the question you have to give the specific answer.So you have to apply your learnt info and see what is the right trading decision.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Thanks Dr,
I am sorry I made a mistake while writing above “how one could take sell position near low?”
I meant to say BUY position.
Regards
Dear Dr,
U mention above that u expect gbu to slide to 1.66, do u mean by end of today? Tnanks
it is unbelieveble, gold can not make any significant drop despite of USD gaining move. As the US session starts the buyers are coming and push the price up. I can not cope with my emotions regarding gold, it is very far away from a bigger drop around 1100 level or even below…
Arthur,
If I may input something here: according to the notes I’ve taken on the strategy, I believe you’re NOT supposed to take the buy if the low is cut during that first 30 min. If its cut, you need to watch for the first 2 hours to see if its cut again because that could signify that the players are taking it even lower.
You’re only supposed to take the buy if the low is NOT CUT during that 30 min of watching. (And do the opposite on a sell trade)
Perhaps one of the wiser traders on here could make sure that what I’m telling you is correct. This is what I have written down about how to execute the strategy.
ChrishH,
thanks for the reply.
I am also talking about taking buy position if low is not cut for 30 minutes from start of session.however in today’s US session, low was cut after 30 minutes…and again later, after staying at a level for about 50/60 minutes, lo was cut…in both cases inevitabley, either buy position be stopped out or hedged…both scenarios are not good for day trading…Moreover forecast said swing and slide moves for US session…then,how prudent it would have been to take buy even if lo is not cut for 30 minitues…could it be called safe trade at all?
ChrisH,
Small verification on the above strategy of “30 mins Cut”;
is this strategy is only for 10-20 pips or bigger ones
on 17/11/09 between 02:00-04:00GMT the EURUSD hit a temp support of 1.4949 it was held around this for more than 1-2 hrs; then it went up 10-20 pips followed by 120 pips drop. I thought to verify whether this is a very shortterm or longterm term holding.
Trying to learn exceptions mechanics by back testing.
Jeeson
Jeeson,
You pls back test it and will find that more often this strategy not works coz market doesn’t seem to respect these rules.I think one needs to observe price action and then decide what to do.