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Operators' intentions read by Dr. S. Sivaraman, of i-knowindices.com

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US session - expected moves

Posted on November 20, 2009 at 14:15 in Market comment, Market forecast, Operators' intentions by Dr. S. Sivaraman

Euro and GBP made the slide all through japanese and European sessions and stalled towards late European session and firmed up from low.

During gap time they are expected to swing near low and make further dip during early US session and then try to recover during mid US session to make further slide and drop later for week end.

Since the quick volatile moves could be seen for week end trade with care .Quick moves are false moves- so take advantage using full money management strategies in your intra- session swing trade.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

31 Responses to “US session - expected moves”

on 20 Nov 2009 at 2:27 pm1Adnan Butt

Respected Dr,

Thanks for updates

it seems eur/usd can test 1.4750?
on 20 Nov 2009 at 2:29 pm2Arthur

Thanks for the update.It helps more to understand,follow and implement your strategy.
on 20 Nov 2009 at 2:33 pm3Francesco

Thank you for the update,

I have closed my short on Cable at 1,6480 and at the same level I would try a small long as it seems that low has not been cutted for more than two hours.

Also, EURGBP could be a good sell opportunity at these levels?

Regards,
on 20 Nov 2009 at 4:16 pm4pipso

Dear Doctor,

You have said in the past, some weeks ago, that usdjpy will hit 100 very soon. Do you see this coming soon? Thank you
on 20 Nov 2009 at 4:43 pm5smith

Doc, can we expect further drop regarding AUD perhaps reaching 0.90 area or it has finished the downward move and start rising again from next week?
on 20 Nov 2009 at 5:36 pm6PRINCE NG

Dr thanks so very much.the drop was quit massive.i raked in 350pips just listening to you. WHERE ARE THE CRITICS NOW?? ?????????
on 20 Nov 2009 at 5:39 pm7PRINCE NG

pls do you foresee us nearing 1.6300 in GU before further rise?your opinion is highly valued
on 20 Nov 2009 at 5:45 pm8Jack Terry

Dear Dr. Savaraman:
I use the live market quote page highs and lows set at 3:00 to 3:30 GMT for the Japanese session. What about the Eur and US sessions? Should I still go by the live market quote page (with prior session changes to the hi and low), or should I use the more recent high and low from about one hour prior to the next (Eur or US) session? Thank you.
on 20 Nov 2009 at 9:02 pm9mike

Mike

I have a homework assignment for anyone who might have some extra time this weekend. Using all possible crosses between jpy, usd, euro, and gbp lets look at the higher time compression charts 1h, 4h, daily and try to make some predictions of this up coming weeks movements. Lets take a look at this weeks highs and lows and closing prices and by applying our interpretations of Doc’s methods in regards to highs and lows and currency correlations (how the majors effect the crosses movement) we should be able to come up with some good educated guesses of this up coming weeks movements. I feel it is exercises like this that will help all of us make better trades. It will also be beneficial for the new comers who are new to the Doc’s system. I will post my thoughts Sunday night. I hope some others decide to chime in as well. It is the contrasting ideas that make us double check our trades the most.
on 20 Nov 2009 at 9:52 pm10prince

one of biggest hedge fund managers, paulson is betting high on gold. what are the views here ?
on 20 Nov 2009 at 10:28 pm11TheRumpledOne

Moves are moves. Quick or not.

You make or lose money when price moves, if you are in a trade.

There are no “false moves”.
on 21 Nov 2009 at 7:01 pm12Jack2

Dear Dr. S.
After the highs and lows are set between 3:00 and 3:30 GMT and used for the Japanese session, would it be proper to reset the highs and lows for the EUR session after Japanese Gap time and the USD session after EUR Gap time?
on 22 Nov 2009 at 9:03 pm13Raj Patel

Hi,
My Guess for Gpb in particular is small retracement from this level and then a fall to 1.6274- 16120 band. during re tracemen euro/gbp will deline while euro is held low and gbp ticksup.
Dollar index is set to rise to first resistance at 76.24 Fib as rsi is approaching 50 on daily chart and expected to fail and resume the down trend to new lows.
Gbp is expected to rise to 1.6600 if wednesday’s G.D.P shows an improvement over last reading.
Hope it works out as anticipated.
Good luck
on 23 Nov 2009 at 12:19 am14shoora

i think we will see stronger USD towards year end, with Gold prices moving lower.

and GBP/USD will rise to 1.70, while EUR/USD and EUR/GBP will drop to around 1.42 and 0.86 respectively.

as for Yen crosses, i think GBP/JPY, and EUR/JPY will be range-bound, USD/JPY will rise.

but that’s just my view, and my trades are based on it, i may be wrong, but that doesn’t matter.

doc’s methods are great, but i never learned to understand them, actually i never learned to act based on them. I did learn to trust my own opinions better.

And Doc, thank for the money I lost trying to use your method:)

Doc, it would be awesome if you could give a follow-up seminar on that long term forecast you gave around the beginning of summer.
on 23 Nov 2009 at 12:35 am15shoora

looks like we are still in the 1.62-1.66 range on the pound.

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/marketreadings/2009/07/03/wide-range-swing-moves-for-week-end/#comment-8789

http://blogs.fxstreet.com/marketreadings/2009/09/17/expected-market-moves-for-today-5/#comment-11476
on 23 Nov 2009 at 6:08 am16Shiv

Mike:

Here are my expectations for this week (as already discussed)

EUR to test 1.50 and possibly 1.51
GBP to test 1.64
Though I expect EUR/GBP to test 91.5, I would play it safe and get out of my long position if it touches 91

And for December, this is what I expect:

EUR to test 1.525 and pull back to 1.47 followed by a violent move to 1.56

GBP to fall to 1.625 followed by an upward move to 1.70

Overall, I expect a weaker dollar towards the year-end.
My trading plan is going to be based on the above hunches. Welcome others’ opinions and thoughts as well as Doc’s inputs. Thx
on 23 Nov 2009 at 9:10 am17TheJade1

Shive,

Could you pls shed some light on “GBP to fall to 1.625 followed by an upward move to 1.70″? Thanks.
on 23 Nov 2009 at 9:19 am18Francesco

Dear Shiv,

if EUR will test 1.50 or 1.51 I doubt GBP will test 1.64, unless EUR will then fall towards 1.46 - 47.

I wonder if we could see USD strenght in Dicember instead, since quite many funds will be willing to cover their USD shorts in order to show profitable results.

Just my thoughts about it

Good trade,
on 23 Nov 2009 at 9:21 am19marty

Regarding EUR/GBP - my instruments pointing close to 0.94 area again before reversal next year. But it’s just my view, of course.
on 23 Nov 2009 at 9:21 am20Francesco

Dear all,

any thoughts on Gold?

Very very strong today, but during european session, for the first time in many days, it looks to me that is starting to weak.
I red about 1200$ expiring today, probably during US session.
Dr.Sivaraman has not posted yet, what do you think about the current situation ?

Thank you!
on 23 Nov 2009 at 9:36 am21Arun Kandyal

Hi all
one side move in GBP today.it could be a false move before further drop any guess dear fellows. I see GBP low 1.6215 for the month end and year end.pls share your views thx.
on 23 Nov 2009 at 9:45 am22marty

Dear Arun,
EUR rangebound, GBP fall by my charts. We’ll see…
on 23 Nov 2009 at 9:55 am23Arun Kandyal

marty
Drop could be for late europeon session or tomorrow but limited for today cause many of the traders are going for short covering who opened short on friday.what you think.
on 23 Nov 2009 at 9:56 am24Jeeson Augustine

Francesco, Gold should test 1161.73 first and then if no more strength to holdup it should try 1157.97 now at 1165.20
on 23 Nov 2009 at 9:57 am25Arun Kandyal

i see maximum high for GBP upto 1.6650/60 and swings
on 23 Nov 2009 at 9:58 am26Arun Kandyal

for today only
on 23 Nov 2009 at 10:01 am27Adnan Butt

Respected Dr,

u r absent today. Ur comments and analysis are badly needed in the present market situation. I pray for ur good health and the energy u uses for ur comments for the small traders. Pleaze come on the screen and give commentry on present market situation especially eur/usd

thanks

Adnan Butt
on 23 Nov 2009 at 10:22 am28TheJade1

If I read all postings correctly, all views including that from the Dr.’s show GBP to weaken further. I have 3 lots selling at 1.65466. I will go short again to average up my position. Let’s see what will happen.
on 23 Nov 2009 at 3:52 pm29Shiv

Hi Jade:

Sorry for the late response. I am in the US and could not keep awake after 1 AM (9:00 AM GMT).

I see a GBP weakening move this week and possibly next week but a reversal for the year-end. I feel the dollar will certainly gain strength for the year-end with lot of year-end repatriation flows and book adjustments. Hope this helps. Thx
on 23 Nov 2009 at 3:56 pm30Shiv

Dear Francesco:

Thx for your thoughts. I still feel GBP will fall to 1.64 this week while EUR strengthens further. My expectation for GBP is 1.625 before it recovers for the year-end. Thx
on 23 Nov 2009 at 4:45 pm31Shiv

Hi Jade:

A correction to my earlier statement (I was probably still sleeping when I typed it!) - I expect the dollar to “weaken” and not “strengthen” for the year-end. Thanks

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