Yesterday I mentioned that i expected the curriencies that recieved rate cuts would respond to those cuts by rallying.  A counter intuitive idea of course.  We have seen that play out as expected now.  However, there is an overwhelming amount of preasure still on these currencies.  Triche’s comments clearly left the door open to more cuts to come so that idea will act as a wall in the way of rallies in the near term.  NFP remains a wild card tomorrow so continued caution is advised.  We do expect the tone that ends this week will carry over and set the new tone for next week.   

Hello everyone, i hope you all had a great Thanksgiving.  We are faced with the first of a number of interest rate descisions this week.  The RBNZ starts it off tonight with their cut followed by ECB and BOE.  These cuts are for the most part priced in but I expect we will get a counter intuitive rally out of the very currencies that get cuts.  Be very careful the rest of the week as NFP ends the week with a bang.   NFP is also expected to be a trainwreck and anything less should cause a rally in both stock markets and the majors but if it comes out as expected or worse…look out below!  

Greeting everyone, today is Wednesday also known as “hump day”, the stock market seems frozen today.  It seems to be just treading water here and that is holding many of the currency pairs back.  We are still looking for the Dollar to fall.  The Fed’s reckless creation of Dollars can only lead to hyperinflation.  Position yourself to take advantage of this inflation rather than being at the mercy of it.  One gret way is to aquire physical silver near the 10.00 level.  We suspect that Silver will be trading well north of $25.00 per ounce in the latter half of 2009.  Have a safe and happy Turkey day every one!

Hello again everyone.  The last few years in particular have seen rather violent moves in the markets during this Thanksgiving week as well as Christmas week next month.  This is largely attributable to the dramatic fall in liquidity since many traders here in the US, myself included, take most if not all of this week off.  This creates some great trading opportunities but those come with increased risk.  Keep position sizes lower than usual this week to contend with this increased volatility.  The macro turn back down in the Dollar I have mentioned in prior posts continues.  We continue to sell Dollars on rallies against the majors.  Also we expect stocks to sag the remainder of the week so that should drag the Yen pairs with it.  Have a happy and safe holiday to everyone in the US.   

Hello again everyone.  Well here we are again with another Freaky Friday.  These Friday’s have seen tremendous volatility in the past few months and today is no exception.  I make a habit of not trading Friday afternoons as these late day swings are often very violent.  I also no longer hold trades over the weekends as gap openings on Sunday night have become the rule rather than the exception.  It does appear that a more macro turn in the Dollar is underway.  I will be looking to buy dips in the Majors against the Dollar early next week.  Have a great weekend everyone, I will see many of you in my webinar on FXstreet.com Monday at 10:00 EST.

Hello everyone.  I wanted to briefly introduce myself.  My name is Derek Frey and I am the head trader at O&F Futures, FOREX, & Options.  I have been a regular on FXstreet.com for almost 5 years now.  Many of you may have been to one of my webinars.  I also want to thank Rob Booker for all of his great posts.  I will be taking the “Postcards from the Edge” Blog over as of today.  I will attempt to post daily with some of my insight into the days market action.  So now that all of that is out of the way lets get started with today’s outlook:

Today we are seeing the markets continued to be gripped by fear.  The Auto industry really did not put on a good show yesterday in Congress so investors are fearful that the “big three” may be left to fail.  Today we expect many of the pairs to see expanded volatility.  The Euro remains the one currency that has not yet broken its support levels.  If these levels hold we could see a sizable rally off of them but first we need a catalyst for the rally.  None of the economic reports this week have spurred a rally but we are seeing a few things on the horizon that indicate a near term top in the Dollar is being put in.  Be careful these next few days as some sort of government action or intervention seems imminent

Hi all,

I’ve been extremely busy lately and couldn’t post here…

My great friend Derek Frey of Odom & Frey Futures, FOREX & Options, is going to be posting here together with me! He has a ton of awesome stuff to share with all of us… so stay tuned!

Thanks!

Rob

Everyone,

I’m alive!  I will be posting more often as soon as I get settled into my new position at Interbank FX.  Here is a link to that news:

Interbank FX Hires Rob Booker as Chief Market Strategist

Right now, I’m doing a “Cover it Live” event at FXSteet about the International Traders Conference in October.  See you there!

- Rob

It’s great to be back. Here’s the next trade.

Here’s a baseline on the EUR/USD:

The
green baseline will be our profit target on a buy trade.  How do we
know when we’re going to take the buy trade?  We wait until a blue
entryline has been broken.  Specifically, we want to see the currency
pair close above the blue entryline on this 30 minute chart:

The
stop loss is going to be put below a recent low before the blue line
was broken.  In this case, as of now that would be down in the 1.4450
area.  But I’ll get a more specific level once the trade is close to
opening.