I think the EUR/USD, in the short term, could pop back upward (see the post below).  But overall, in the longer term, I think the pair is breaking down and will fall all the way to the 1.5000 mark.  At least that far.  That would coincide nicely with the red trendline we can see in the chart below.

Is this break below the blue channel the breakdown that leads to the move all the way down to the 1.5000 level?  I don’t think so.  I think we have one more short term move up before it all breaks apart.

I’m looking for the pair to break and close above the red trendline.  If it can do that, I’ll buy it with a target of the first fib retracement level at 1.5652 — but I really think it could go all the way to the 1.5722 mark — that’s the 38% retracement.

We talked about the EUR/USD falling a long time back.  Let’s just say that I was way premature in the expectation that the pair could fall.  Anyway, it’s finally doing that now, and I’m happy to say that we’ll be following the fall as it goes along.

So, it looks like the pair is on the way down (finally) to the blue trendline.  If you want to see more about the origins of that line, you can watch the past videos (they’re short, and fun).  If the pair breaks below the lows from Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th, at about 1.5710, then I’d be willing to go for it.

Sure, it could go back up, but I’m not interested in buy trades on this pair until we get above 1.6000. 

If you think that consumer spending is important to the economy, and,
like, you probably do if you live on Earth, then this ought to interest
you; it’s the XRT index — the S&P Retail Index:

Consumers in the United States have stopped spending. Consumer spending
is 66%+ of total Gross Domestic Product for a country. Recession,
anyone?

1. My better trades come when I have found a place to quietly think
about the trade idea, before I take the trade. I lay down for a few
minutes and let my mind roam. This settles me down at an otherwise
tense moment. It also allows me to clearly consider what I like or
don’t like about the trade.

2. It’s important to me to ignore outside influences when I am
planning a trade. I’d rather pay attention to my own reasons for the
trade, instead of someone else’s views of the currency pair that have
nothing to do with the indicators and other things that I look at when
wanting to buy or sell.

3. It’s one thing to have a rule- or principle-based trading
methodology. It’s another thing to actually trade that system with a
clear and rational mind.

4. Sometimes I realize that I have become very anxious about a
trade idea, or a trade plan. These are good times to find a quiet place
and get away from the computer, until I’ve sorted out the reason for
the anxiety. I take plenty of trades when I’m anxious, of course, but
I’ve at least thought about the reasons behind the anxiety first.

5.  How many losses I’ve taken recently is the last thing on my mind. 

Here’s the audio link from the FXStreet.com Webinar that we did (it was not recorded):

http://www.robbooker.com/radio/archives/FXStreetWebinar_April82008.mp3

Here we talked about a sell trade on the GBP/USD just yesterday.  This is a 30 minute chart on the GBP/USD.  Here is the result:

The sell trade came when the pair closed below the blue trendline.  The stop loss would go above 1.9900, which was the recent high before the pair closed below the trendline.  The profit target was the red trendline.  Hope you made some pips.