It’s great to be back. Here’s the next trade.

Here’s a baseline on the EUR/USD:

The
green baseline will be our profit target on a buy trade.  How do we
know when we’re going to take the buy trade?  We wait until a blue
entryline has been broken.  Specifically, we want to see the currency
pair close above the blue entryline on this 30 minute chart:

The
stop loss is going to be put below a recent low before the blue line
was broken.  In this case, as of now that would be down in the 1.4450
area.  But I’ll get a more specific level once the trade is close to
opening.

The EUR/USD dropped out of the channel it has been in; it’s now staying outside of the channel, and this could bring further losses.  I am excited to see where we go from here.  That’s why I am updating the blog, which is obvious.

Here’s the basic channel on the 4 hour chart:

Now we’re going to add some Winnipeg lines to the chart to give us an idea of where we might be going.

The red lines below the channel are what we call Winnipeg lines; they are extensions of the width of the channel itself.  The first red line you see is a 100% extension outside the channel.  It’s very easy for me to imagine the pair falling all the way to that level.  I might wait to enter the trade, to see if the pair can rise back up a bit (even to the bottom of the old channel it broke).

I’ve been looking at a EUR/USD trade for a few days now and I’m finally ready to give up on the trade.  The pair did not fall to the green baseline.  And it’s nearly the weekend.  So I am closing the trade.

Here is a link to the last EUR/USD update and the original trade idea.

The EUR/USD has been wild lately, and it’s no secret that 99% of the human population sold the EUR/USD on Monday.  This includes my payroll guy; he called me today and wanted to know how he could sell US Dollars.  Well, the money has been in counter-trend trading for the last 24 hours, folks.

Here is the original trade idea.

And here is the update: the pair has fallen and it’s getting closer and closer to the green BaseLine.  I am happy to stay in the trade with my stop on the position at break even.

Now that we’ve lost on the previous EUR/USD trade, I’m ready to get back my pips.  Here is what I’m going to do:

We’ll start with the four hour chart and draw ourselves a delicious green BaseLine trendline.

And then we’re going to move down to the 1 hour chart and draw ourselves a blue EntryLine, and if the pair closes below that line we’ll go ahead and sell the pair and use the green BaseLine as our profit target.  The stop loss is above 1.6050 (mine is at 1.6065).

Our Gungan Jar Jar trade got wiped out like a planet by the Death Star.  You can see the original trade idea here, and my update on the trade here.

You can see the trade stopped out here:

Dave posted an idea (which you can see right here) on Friday.  The pair did break the trendline, and now it is rising up and re-testing the trendline.  This is a suitable place to enter the trade also; the stop loss is shown in the red dashed line.

You’ve heard me say before that I am unhappy if a pair does not quickly begin to move in the direction of the baseline (green) when the trade opens.  This is one of those situations.  I am going to give this a bit more time (I will update you a bit later) but it’s on a short leash.

It’s possible you missed this trade completely, but it was amazing how fast this whole thing played out. 

Here is a link to the original trade idea.

The pair just shot up like a rocket and went way, way past our green BaseLine.  Time to move on to another trade!

There has been a ton of movement on the EUR/USD.  The movement down could continue very easily, and very strong — but first we could see a retracement back up.  A close above the blue EntryLine could take us to the green BaseLine.  Could happen in the next day or so. 

Overall, watch for the EUR/USD to lose more ground after this move (or even before it).

The EUR/USD finally made it up to, and hit, the green BaseLine.  I immediately sold the pair when it hit the trendline.  With a stop 20 pips above the trendline, and a profit target at 1.5800.