Hello again everyone.  I just wanted to do a quick post and alert you to the fact that my models are indicating a high probability that the Dollar strength we have seen post NFP is waning already and could turn lower again this week.  We are exiting any remaining long Dollars, with the exception being the USD/JPY pair, and beginning to look at short Dollar trades against the majors.  Lots of reports still to come out this week so lots of data for the markets to digest.  

Well all i can say about 2008 is thank goodness it is over.  2009 should shape up as another wild one.  We expect to see a lot of volatility on the back of this weeks NFP report and that volatility will likely carry through the inauguration of Obama.  Then he has his 100 days and we will see how the markets react to all of “fixes”.  Republicans will try and pretend that they are fiscally responsible which is just a ridiculous joke but it is the hand they intend to play so we are likely to see them tying to stone wall any rescue packages and Obama may end up being lucky to get 10 days let alone the traditional 100.  The Battle has just begun so strap yourself in and get ready for some fireworks!

Hello again everyone.  I just returned from speaking at the Forex Traders Association in Houton on Saturday.  I want to say thank you to every one there for hosting me and having such a great event.  I want to especially thank Mona and Anton.  I hope to see you all again soon.

So this week we are faced with digesting the worst   NFP report since 1974 and at the same time anticipating the FOMC meeting next Tuesday.  I have been and continue to talk about the turn back down in the Dollar and that overall theme remains in play. I continue to look at Dollar rallies as selling opportunities.  Also I am going out on a limb and saying this about oil…we will see $125 a barrel again before we see $25…if i am right it has huge implications for all markets but especially the Canadian.  Stock markets are expected to be choppy at best this week a they too begin to anticipate the next FOMC meeting and more importantly the implication of the next cut…

Yesterday I mentioned that i expected the curriencies that recieved rate cuts would respond to those cuts by rallying.  A counter intuitive idea of course.  We have seen that play out as expected now.  However, there is an overwhelming amount of preasure still on these currencies.  Triche’s comments clearly left the door open to more cuts to come so that idea will act as a wall in the way of rallies in the near term.  NFP remains a wild card tomorrow so continued caution is advised.  We do expect the tone that ends this week will carry over and set the new tone for next week.   

Hello everyone, i hope you all had a great Thanksgiving.  We are faced with the first of a number of interest rate descisions this week.  The RBNZ starts it off tonight with their cut followed by ECB and BOE.  These cuts are for the most part priced in but I expect we will get a counter intuitive rally out of the very currencies that get cuts.  Be very careful the rest of the week as NFP ends the week with a bang.   NFP is also expected to be a trainwreck and anything less should cause a rally in both stock markets and the majors but if it comes out as expected or worse…look out below!