You can follow Ian Coleman’s blog on the FXstreet.com Network.
The Samurai Trader
Aggressive rally on Thursday and Friday last week resulted in a positive weekly close for GBPCHF after initial mixed trading at the beginning of the week. A potential double bottom could be inplace on the daily chart. This will be confirmed by trading through 1.5690.
Short term price action looks to be forming a consolidating flag before the next leg higher after showing a Shooting Star formation at the high on Friday, a signal that a temporary top may be in place. The break of the flag to the upside (1.4950)could see the rally extend to 1.5150, the flag target area.
FRI 1st April 2011 2011 Intraday AUDJPY Overbought -Looking to Buy from London’s 7am open with a stop of 86.14
Today’s call: Overbought -Looking to Buy from London’s 7am open with a stop of 86.14 OPEN 86.41
The correction from Asian trading yesterday was reversed with investors resuming the buying pressure in AUDJPY as the rally extended to 12 big figures from the 17th Mar low of 74.60 and resulted in the tenth positive day in succession. This has been further highlighted by bullish sentiment dominating overnight trading resulting in a new 10 month high. Although signals for sentiment are at overbought extremes momentum is still increasing and while we have no evidence that investor enthusiasm is stalling we would look for the gains to continue. In view of these facts my Call today is a Buy with a stop at 86.14. The targets are difficult to assess but we expect investors to focus on 86.70, the open from May 2010, with a move beyond that point targeting 87.00, then to 87.87, the high trade from May.
The risk to this call is that the rally is not as strong as currently assessed and this would be signaled by a move below 86.14, yesterday’s high. Prices and sentiment should then deteriorate to 85.61, Thursday’s open, then towards 84.73, the low trade from Wednesday.
THU 31st March 2011 Intraday EURCHF Trade a Break of 1.2961 or 1.3041
Today’s call –Trade a Break of 1.2961 or 1.3041
EURCHF traded to within 2 pips of this month peak with a rally of over 6 big figures from the low on the 17th Mar but investors failed to maintain the day’s high with the cross closing for little net change. Signals for sentiment are approaching overbought extremes as buying pressure stalls and momentum turns to the downside. While the correction is seen to be temporary the extent of the decline is unclear so my call today is a cautious one and to Trade a Break of 1.2961 or 1.3041. Risk to this call is difficult to assess so the stop should is going to be placed 70 pips from the breakout.
On the downside, failure would be selling through 1.2961, Wednesday’s low trade. This would be a bearish signal that sentiment is deteriorating increasing the confidence in the call to an outright sell. Targets would then be for losses to 1.2915, Tuesday’s open, then towards 1.2855, Friday’s low.
On the upside, buying through 1.3041, yesterday’s high, should be bullish signal sentiment is improving again, increasing the confidence in the call to an outright buy for further gains to 1.3100, then 1.3207, the Feb high.
Since posted the low on the 17th march EURCHF has rallied over 5 big figures. Although momentum is slowing and signals for sentiment are overbought I expect the pair to reach the channel line at 1.3058. At this point I would expect some consolidation ( or correction to form the right shoulder) before the rally continues. A move below 1.2858 indicates that the bias is not as strong as is currently anticipated.
EURGBP Weekly chart has broken the descending trendline from the highs made in Dec 08 / Oct 09 / Oct 10.
Investors have reversed some of last weeks gains but postive sentiment for the pair has been apparent with strong buying emerging again today. I am now looking for an impulsive move towards Oct highs of .08945 and possibly 0.9500. The Risk to this forecast would be a move back below 0.8500.
Bullish sentiment is improving in EURUSD with the bias strongly to the upside. We are now approaching the previous high of 1.4287, reached in November. The forecast is for this level to break with a further rally towards 1.4470-14500 before any significant retracement. The risk to this call would be for negative sentiment to return to the market sooner than expected. This would be signaled with a move through 1.4000. The market is then likely to target 1.3868, last weeks low, followed by 1.3800, levels last seen on the 11th of march.
Hi Guys ….
See the post from last week pls. I am expect a small bounce (in comparison) here, then another sell off. Will update levels when I see them