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EUR/USD Top & Reversal?

Posted on September 21, 2009 at 1:58 in Intraday Techs, Medium & Long Term Techs by César B. Leiceaga

Last week’s 2009 highs at 1,4770 could possibly act as a medium term top for the euro. Although the main  trend still remains bullish, on shorter time frames (1 hour chart) the euro is building lower highs.

Combined with different bearish implications that offer larger time frames such as the daily chart with a RSI coming out of overbought conditions and divergent with December highs makes me a dollar bull for the coming weeks. A daily close above 2009’s high negates this theory.

Significant support areas located at 1,4520 - 1,4550 and 1,4370 -1,4400’s (blue circles on daily chart)

Shorter term support at 1,4640 (200SMA in 1 hour chart) and 1,4700.

Daily & 1 hour charts

César B.Leiceaga

Tags: eurusd, eurusd daily analysis, eurusd intraday

6 Responses to “EUR/USD Top & Reversal?”

  1. on 21 Sep 2009 at 2:11 am1carlab

    Buenos dias.
    Parece que el soporte a 1.4640 ha aguantado. Crees que de romperlo el objetivo podia ser mas ambicioso? Cuál sería el siguiente nivel? Ves lasemana bajista? Gracias

  2. on 21 Sep 2009 at 3:29 am2A-SOLTANI

    Dear cesar
    I agree with you in whole.but for trading reversal we need to be patient for a few sings and confirmations such as shortterm T.L break and last W.4 break in s= 1.4640 and gathering momentum (H4 BW rises)for bearish trade.
    thank you.

  3. on 21 Sep 2009 at 3:57 am3César B. Leiceaga

    Buenos días Carlos,

    Espero una rotura hacia 1,4600 para las próximas sesiones. Esta rotura podría desencadenar una venta masiva para saltar los stops de los largos estimo que pudiendo incluso llegar a 1,4520-1,4550.
    Ese es el nivel a vigilar para poder reafirmar la teoría de un posible giro en el EURO.
    Todo acompaña y si siguen insistiendo con la correlación entre bolsas - euro esta hipotética teoría produciría una corrección en las bolsas, por otra parte necesitada y esperada para poder seguir en la actual senda alcista.

    Un saludo.

  4. on 21 Sep 2009 at 4:43 am4César B. Leiceaga

    Dear A-Soltani,

    Totally agree with you, patience is a virtue in this business.
    I´m playing with probabilities, there are many factors and indicators that warn a reversal, and as you prudently pointed out, they need to be confirmed. Therefore let’s see how it works out during this week. I will update regularly my EUR/USD analysis.

    Regards.

  5. on 21 Sep 2009 at 3:55 pm5Gladiato

    Hola Cesar,

    Solo paso por aqui para felicitarte por el análisis y enviarte un saludo.

    Como bien dices a A-Soltani la paciencia es una virtud en este negocio y hay que ser capaz de dejar pasar muy buenas operaciones para no precipitarse ante cualquier cosa y aprender a poco a poco cazarlas tratando de ser lo más selectivo posible operando siempre lo que uno ve que es lo que controla.

    En este caso, mi visión coincide bastante a menudo con la tuya y me alegro.

    Saludos,

    Gladiat.

  6. on 22 Sep 2009 at 3:57 am6César B. Leiceaga

    Gracias por tus comentarios gladiato siempre se agradecen.

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