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EUR/USD Tested key level

Posted on October 21, 2009 at 3:05 in Medium & Long Term Techs by César B. Leiceaga

The euro still remains bullish against the usd and in my opinion there are a few signs of reversal. Price action is smoothly trending towards 1,5000 psychological level.

1,4990 acted as resistance in previous sessions and I still think that a re-test of that area is possible over today’s session. It’s too early to talk about a top on the pair, first of all, a close below 1,4900 is needed and second, correlations with the stock market, gold etc need to lead the global correction.

Signs of exhaustion are all over the place, but players like to push markets to extreme levels to create fear and induce traders to take wrong positions.

Note the bearish divergence on the 4 hour chart.

César B.Leiceaga

Tags: euro, eurusd, eurusd 21 october 2009, forex, fx markets, usd

10 Responses to “EUR/USD Tested key level”

  1. on 21 Oct 2009 at 3:19 am1Alan

    Dear César:

    I agree with you. Player have been keeping EUR/USD at high level and pushing higher. Maybe most traders in short position to forced player to do so. I am wandering that if player push it higher and higher they have to buy more continouously. How do they book profit?

  2. on 21 Oct 2009 at 3:31 am2César B. Leiceaga

    Dear Alan,

    They are pushing higher because they are already long eur/usd, their purpose is to push prices higher so that they can book profits. But they don´t necessarily BUY, what they do is show big BIDS on market depth to induce traders to buy. In other words, trick them creating a bullish sentiment and all of a sudden make an extreme move in the other direction.
    Take a look at yesterday’s move on gbp and euro, that is a perfect example of their attitude.

    Best Regards.

  3. on 21 Oct 2009 at 3:46 am3A-SOLTANI

    DEAR CESAR

    previuse target for gbp @6440 reached and breaked.trend is strong and there are next targets @6550/90 for dropping eurgbp to 9050/8940. then there are projects for eur @5030/50 or finally 1.51.
    generally I am not worry about players,because right look to market and tech. analysis cover their games.I am Trend follower and dont trade against major trend untill it firm break.

    BEST REGARDS

  4. on 21 Oct 2009 at 3:50 am4Alan

    Dear César:

    Thank you for your explanation. Today they are doing same thing in GBP/USD.

    Regards

    Alan

  5. on 21 Oct 2009 at 4:12 am5César B. Leiceaga

    Dear A-Soltani,

    Agreed with your view, breaking st bearish trend signals a further bull move for cable from the long term perspecive. Trading against the trend is one of the worst mistakes a trader can make.

    Regards.

  6. on 21 Oct 2009 at 4:16 am6César B. Leiceaga

    Dear Alan,

    Players are handling eur and gbp crosses to drop eurgbp (like A-soltani said). The break above minor bearish trendline is offering a buy signal but I always insist on the daily close to confirm any theory. I will update my view on gbp/usd tomorrow.

    Regards.

  7. on 21 Oct 2009 at 4:52 am7A-SOLTANI

    DEAR CESAR

    previuse target for gbp @6440 reached and breaked.trend is strong and there are next targets @6550/90(86% fibo} for dropping eurgbp to 9050/8940. then there are projects for eur @5030/50 or finally 1.51.
    generally I am not worry about players,because right look to market and tech. analysis cover their games.I am Trend follower and dont trade against major trend untill it firm break.

    BEST REGARDS

  8. on 31 Oct 2009 at 3:26 am8Maxiajamnib

    Other variant is possible also

  9. on 04 Nov 2009 at 10:08 pm9PSR

    hola CESAR,veo que la barrera de 1.50 se rompera este viernes,que cres?, saludos,estudio siempre tus palabras pues veo que te apasiona este mundo.

  10. on 05 Nov 2009 at 4:24 am10César B. Leiceaga

    HOLA PSR,

    Gracias por comentar en el blog.
    Mi visión es distinta ya que creo que hemos visto un techo de medio plazo en el euro a no ser que se perforen los máximos de Octubre (1,5060).Soy consciente de que la tendencia es alcista, pero existen otros factores por los que creo que el USD tiene que recuperar el terreno perdido.

    Un saludo.

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