Greetings.

Starting from a larger look (on the 10 minute chart) and zooming our way down to the last few hours, it seems that the EUR/USD is in for a bumpy ride coming up.

Our shorter term trend still appears to be down, however, I’d wait to see it test the 1.4195 level (and may even go above). Once there, then you should reanalyze to ensure everything checks out again, and then you could potentially consider going short - putting your own analysis and money management factors into play.

If it goes above the line and heads up, then you’d want to wait until the currency pair goes below our line and breaks down for potential confirmation.

Again, keep in mind this is the shorter term so we’re talking about sniping some pips here and keeping your stop losses very tight.

Good luck.

Hello and welcome back to another week of trading.

Pulling up the EUR/USD, in the shorter term (meaning today’s European and NY session), look for the price to go down a little and then potentially head up to the 1.4280 - 1.4340 area. We’re still watching for what we think will be the “top” soon before we start heading back down - however, we caution that we may still have some time before we get there and we may see a slow play out of this pair, but we’re still working with our Fibonacci projections to see where that may end up being. For now, we’ll look to trade the shorter term.

Good luck and if you do place a trade, be sure to put your stops in that the trade fits into your money management and risk vs. reward ratios.

We’re going to double up on our post today to give you both an analysis of the EUR/USD but also a lesson in Elliott Wave analysis in real time.

For those that just want the analysis - look for potential continued upward movement. However, keep analyzing in shorter time frames to check for a failed 5th wave. Once the currency tops, look for a nice “roller coaster” ride down.

Okay - for those that want to know a little more about wave counting. From the bottom of our chart, we have a nice movement up. You can manually count the waves and they appear to be pretty straighforward.

Is this an Impulse wave? Well, there are certain rules and guidelines to follow for impulse waves. Although I could keep naming them off, here’s what we look for just by eye-balling the chart.

1) Does Wave 2 cross over the beginning of Wave 1? No.
2) Does Wave 4 cross into the area of Wave 1. Again, just by “eye balling” it, it is very, VERY close but it looks like it doesn’t. Even if it did, it appears to only be by a very small amount. We’d have to check the actually prices to get a final answers (but here’s when you have to consider breaking some of the rules).
3) Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. It isn’t.
4) Is there alternation? Alternation refers to the corrective waves (Wave 2 and 4). If wave 2 is long and drawn out, wave 4 should be shorter. It can work the other way - if wave 2 is short and steep, then wave 4 should be longer and drawn out.

Now, the thing you must watch for is a potential “failed” or truncated 5th. That means, instead of Wave 5 moving up past the high of wave 3, it doesn’t pass it and starts heading down.

IF we’re looking at this chart in real time and all of a sudden it started moving down from the end point of this screen capture, then that would be a truncated 5th because it didn’t go higher than Wave 3.

So - the question now is - how do you determine if this is a truncated 5th? Great question. It’s impossible to call at this point, however, study and break down the formation of the unfolding Wave 5 in various time frames and that may help give you a clue to what may unfold.

What do we think? - Well, at this point, it seems like Wave 5 still has some legs to it and will move up. However, we’ll watch this unfold real closely and if we were to trade this, we’d definitely keep the stops tight.

Also, don’t forget you have a great resource right here on FX Street for many of your FX trading needs. Be sure to visit the Forex Tools section on FX Street at this address: http://www.fxstreet.com/forex-tools

Hello.

I wanted to get this out before the opening of the European markets.

Here’s a brief rundown on the EUR/USD. It seems as though we have potentially formed a short-term top above the 1.4276 price target. If there is more bullish sentiment, look for it to break that price and may give it one more push up (potentially even to the 1.4400 area).

However, there is a potential “top” in site, and when that happens, look to sell this currency pair.

Good luck and we’ll be sure to watch this as the markets open and unfold.

Cheers.

Greetings.

Have we seen a potential top in the EUR/USD?

We may have. On the shorter-term charts (5 min & 10 min), it looks like we’ve reached (or will reach soon) a top and potential have a short-term downtrend movement. We may see a test of the previous high, as drawn in by our chart.

Use caution when trading during these topsy turvy times and apply strict money management.

Good luck.

Hello again.

The EUR/USD appears like it’s forming a nice Contracting Triangle (CT) formation on the 10 minute chart. Remember, as we move along and get further and further into the triangle, we’re going to see a breakout soon. Be prepared for that.

Looking at other currency pairs, let’s pull up the NZD/USD 10 minute chart. It seems like the latest movement is potentially unfolding in a bullish movement. We went up to form Wave 1, then down for a quick Wave 2 and am now heading back up for a Wave 3.

At this point we don’t know if it’s going to be a 3 wave or 5 wave movement yet, but the shorter term sentiment appears to be bullish.

Good luck with your trades and be sure to use your protective stops. Cheers.

We saw some teeter-totter movement in the EUR/USD - let’s step back a little bit and take a look at the “bigger picture.”

On the 10 minute chart (M10), it shows the potential of the downward movement to continue - perhaps test the bottom trend line we drew in our hourly chart - although look for it to play out in the next couple of trading sessions.

After that, it looks like we’ve potentially got another move up coming after we hit the bottom. I’m hesitant to call this move pictured here an Impulse wave because of what appears to be an Ending Diagonal for the 2nd wave of the movement.

Be sure to apply your own analysis to this and analyze the currency pair in different time frames as well.

If we don’t post in the NY session, we hope everyone has a wonderful weekend and enjoy your time off.

Not so quickly.

Our short term analysis shows that we may have potentially reached (or will reach soon) a short-term bottom and head back up to test the 1.3950 area. If it breaks above that point, look for it to potentially test the high from yesterday (7/7/09) - although, this will not happen in one session.

Remember to apply your money management and use your stops.

Good luck and see everyone again shortly.

As we head into the opening of the European session, we’re seeing some strong downwards movement. Look for a potential continued downwards movement to test the 1.3900 area.

We’ll update our blog again once we have completed our scan and analysis of the markets. Good luck.

Cheers.

Hello and welcome back from a wild couple days on the EUR/USD roller coaster.

It came down to test the 1.4000 area, then shot back up to the 1.4200 area and am now hovering somewhere in the middle at the 1.4100 area.

So, what now?

Well - it seems like we have seen a potential short-term top with the recent high yesterday. So, look for a short-term continued trend downward. Place stops above the recent high yesterday. It may come up and give us a little scare and test yesterday’s high, however, the shorter term sentiment appears to be down.

Analyze your risk tolerance and risk vs. reward ratio to help you determine an entry point. Always use your stops.

Good luck.