Hi Folks,

Find myself with a lot of free time today

Today is one of those days where I look at the charts and think stuff it.

Price activity in the overnight or Asian trading range is not in the best place to be taking trades on as far as I’m concerned OR there are still some larger term ranges that still need to be broken before any action can be taken. AND when that happens I will need to take an average days move into consideration which means waiting yet again for more significant retracements using fibs and at least a 50% retracement.

Long story short I dont fancy sitting all day just on the off chance that something might develop from what will most likely be scraps for the day.

Now this doesnt mean we cant or will not see some good moves it just means that based on market norms and averages I have a low expectation of being able to join in on any moves based on the strategies I use.

Other traders with different style may be looking at this and thinking this is perfect for my strategy but that just highlights the magical difference between traders and strategies.

Have a good days trading folks

Phil

What do you Guys ‘n Gals think of today… is it worth trading? or taking a long weekend?

Hi Folks,

Today video showing my current view on the markets… looking like its going to be a long wait for a lot of patterns to set up for me.

happy trading

Phil

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Hi Folks,

Todays video showing the potential trade set ups that are developing for me today.

Have a good days trading

Phil

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Hi Folks,

Today’s Forex Video showing the break out set ups that I’m looking at… once again these patterns are a rare but pleasant site to see at the moment in the current volatile climate.

Other pairs not mentioned I’ll be looking for Fibonacci retracements to join on any moves

Enjoy

Phil

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Hi Folks,

I’m a little bit late with today’s video but hey not much potential stating the day, only CADCHF with a break out move and most of the other pairs have put in a decent high low range overnight which is reducing my trading options today.

Looking for some deep retracements before committing to any further movements today.

Enjoy

Phil

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Hi Folks

This mornings Video of whats setting up for me

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Hi Folks,

Today’s Forex Video showing the trade set ups that I’m looking at… it a little bit of a shame that Last nights JPY trades didn’t hold, but hey that’s life and there will always be other trade… I will take satisfaction at being right rather than being annoyed for getting stopped out with my normal trade management tactic.

Enjoy

Phil

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Hi Folks,

This short video is a quasi follow up to Jerry’s question and a follow up to when not to trade.

The long story short for me is that when the daily average high low range has been done or mostly done ie. >65% then I have a really low or zero expectation of any further movements based on historical averages and reduces my trading options considerably

What I then have to look for is a significant retracement for my profit potential to come back to me.

Enjoy

Phil

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 I usually like to type my thoughts out when I’m trying to shape them which I usually in a word doc … and is a good exercise I like to do to help put all those thoughts together

Firstly ATR’s have been done, which gives me little profit potential for the day we know that the short term moves of late can still produce some good moves after ATR’s have been done but profit potential at the moment is 0 versus large gaps and wide swings… this is making me scratch my head. 2 big gaps in as many weeks also making my think twice about these markets

so I’m back to thinking about direction for any potential…

Using gbpusd onscreen as example…

Big gap up which from Friday has moved more than 500 pips. When was the last time we saw this and what happened?

As chartists we are looking for history to repeat itself.

So what did it do last time?

If you notice, I’m still going through the first 2 of the 3 basic questions only this time I’m expanding the where is price now and what is it doing part… looking for as many facts as I can and also looking at what price did last time this happened

ok so last time….

Big gap up, which was the Fanny and Freddy bail out. This pretty much amounted to a nationalisation of those financial institutions and some pundits were saying this was the equivalent of an interest rate cut. Which is good for the US, right? The bail out though is bad news… = gap up. This was seen as a shorting potential for gbpusd

So what different fundamentally this time?

LEH bail out and maybe a few others to follow… the news in UK not as bad, also a price action direction bias on the 240 min charts which we looked at last Friday.

So this time LEH bail out… bad for US and FED also considering changing views on rates… gap up on gbpusd and the trend is at the early stages of change… which is different from last time as the trend was well established as already down… is this gap going to be a shorting opportunity as well… It might be but I don’t thing so.

So facts again… This gap is different from last time and bad for US as their financial system is in melt down and the government is not bailing them out = bad

All in all while the UK is not too much better than the US the UK is not having as many problems and our banking system isn’t collapsing…. at least not just yet!

It now looks like the financial melt down we were predicating several weeks ago is happening and its the US who has buckled first, should it be good for the UK in relation to currency exchange in basic terms if the UK and US were companies and you had to invest on one of them,  which one would you invest in…? Neither, but If I had to choose right now it would be the UK.

The point is everywhere is struggling its a question of which one is doing worse and looking at gbpusd the USD is doing worse… and its not a case of GBP is better… its still in a bad shape just not as bad… for now.

They are the facts using the 3 basic questions and taking some of the fundamental picture of why this is happening into consideration

The last of the 3 questions is how can I get involved…? It takes a while sometimes but we are getting there.

This one will be easier to answer… ATR done looking for fib set ups… but which way will we be looking to trade? Intraday looks like at the time writing mixed direction and the 240 min chart is starting a new uptrend, but how long is that going to last? Long story short is that the potential for the day has been done based on an average days move. And is a step aside say for now.

Lets think about this another way… if you are playing football on the park. You have a giant square of grass to play on… and if the ball went on to the main roads with traffic going up and down would you continue to play on the main road or would you get your ball and go back into the safety of the park…?

At the moment folks we are on the main road… so lets wait for little jonny to get the price action back into the park so we can all play

Do you have any thoughts or comments? What about JPY rates as a safe haven instead of USD rates?

Please leave your thoughts using the form below.

How to reply….

I get a lot of comments like this on my own site and other sites and Ive had a lot worse.

If you don’t like what I’m doing then don’t read it.

My view of the markets is just 1 view and there are 11 other bloggers on the site who provide different information and views.

I dont provide signals, expectations or where I think the market is going. Why? I’m not an analyst I’m a full time trader which most people who come to this site and the other many affiliated sites are aspiring to be and that is the audience I’m catering for.

I show you a detailed trading strategy that I use on a day by day basis and how that is applied.

Do my posts help trader? A lot of people seem to think so judging from the feedback. I show you  what I’m planning on doing, not where price might get to. I’m not telling you I’m buying at XYZ price but if you follow the detailed plan Ive laid out you will see where I’m getting in to the market WHEN the pattern presents itself.

The question your really asking is “I want to be spoon fed, will you tell me what I should do?” Well I think its clear that I’m not providing what YOU want which is fine with me as I can’t please everyone.

This is why there is a choice of different views and trading style/methodologies on FX Street, so that you can make an informed choice for how you want to trade. If its market commentary others provide that. If its precise entry and exit signals you want without you doing any hard work, other bloggers provide that.

Its all about choice and what YOU want from trading and the information here on this site.  If it isnt here, make a request and the FX Street team will see if they can acomodate you.

If your angry with me and what I do (which it sounds like you are) check out the psychology sections to help curb those unwanted emotions instead of venting them on people who are actually trying to help others.

Thank you for your comment and If you do have something constructive please let me know and I will see what I can do to provide you with the information that you need.