Ok folks, something for a little but of fun but at the end of it will have a very interesting result.
Answers on the comments please.
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44 Responses to “My Head Hurts!”
5
5?
mmmm lets try with ‘5′.
I hold a degree in mathematics specialized in algebra and I cannot answer 100% for sure that question
If we are in Z/5Z space, for example, the next number will be a zero. But, if we live in our “happy N world”, making a simple interpolation suggest a 5… but I will not put my money in a 5… I’m pretty sure it will be any other number.
From forex point of view, that’s clearly an ascending chanel… anything can come now. Even If you provide me the supports, resistances, fibos, etc… I will not know from sure what’s next.
Then, my bet is 0!
At this point in time I don’t know, but when it comes if it’s higher (going up) I’ll buy it; if it’s lower (going down)I’ll sell it!!
The logic number to come is 5, but it is so logical that there wouldn´t be fun if 5 was the answer so I do not know what number comes next…..
Damm it!… I should have to have an answer as I´m a CEO and CEO’s know everything
What number comes next Phil?
Francesc
OK folks,
Thanks for joining in the game (which does have an important point at the end of it)
Jordi I think is the cloest to an answer based on the logic used.
This is an exercise in perseption and assumptions is the next clue.
As we dont know the game rules you need to make assumptions about the rules to “GUESS” the answer.
OK so have a think about the question again and what would the asnwer be based on certain assumptions?
One
Francesc,
I think I might make you sweat a little longer over the answer
Again what we need to consider is what rules are you using to determine your conclusions?
Do we have enough information to determine the answer?
If you have an answer how do you come to it? or again did you make some assumptions on what would happen next?
Or is that the end of the sequence?
All food for thought regarding the answer?
As traders what we need to do is to be able to think about all posible answers that might be correct
gee..if you don’t know what comes after 4….I think you it’s high time you take sometime off….too much of everything is detrimental to health…..
the next thing to come is «,»
First of all, are these two questions correlated, or they are two separate questions?
Ok so what most of you seem to be Identifying is that without knowing the rules of the game you cant play the game.
so to get the answer you have to make an assumption.
Certainly as a number sequence 5 would be logically next if this was a simple sequential data set.
But you have to assume that those are the rules of the game.
So for the answer that you have come up with what assumptions did you make to get that answer?
Answer soon
Phil
PS - no-one has actually come up with the answer yet.
that looks really funny!
I just realize that I assumed that I need to replace the “?” for the correct answer. Maybe the “?” it’s another symbol of the sequence. I’m assuming I need to read from left to right… maybe that’s an error and I’m looking for the zero (I insist, this will be the correct one :D). Maybe, if “?” it’s part of the sequence, the next symbol will be the “,” as somebody already said.
A good answer.
So if this was a trade… your conclusion might be no trade. as you dont have enough information to palce a trade and expect a certain outcome
The thing that this game is doing is making you think about options OR from a trading view point “scenarios”
All those “what ifs?” that trading presents us each day.
Ok folks,
This is going really well.
Now lets take this a step further… I’m am the market, I’m the one who knows the rules of the game and only me.
I’m taking your bets and giving you a reward if your right… so far no one has got the answer so IF I were taking your money I’d be a lot richer by now.
I found something about this sequence of numbers and Fibonacci…the answer is 7?
greetings
given:
1) market (phil) is unpredictable which means there is no way of knowing with any degree of certainty what number (if it even is a number, for all i know it could be another ‘?’ or anything else) will come next.
2) 1, 2, 3, 4, is what we know so far about the series.
based on that, i think i’d wait for the series to give me more information before i can make a decision on whether to put my money in or stay away from the market (phil).
for example, if the series continues as follows: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, then i’d be more certain about the next number, which would be 10, as the series has followed a straight forward number sequence/pattern.
i think the point phil is trying to make is that we should get as much information as we possibly can, paying special attention to the patterns that are forming, to increase our odds of betting on the correct next number. so when the start of such a pattern reappears, one can, with a greater level of confidence, bet that the pattern will follow the historical sequence.
so, my answer is wait for more information before making a decision. and place trade only after noticing a repeating pattern in the sequence.
Ameya
Hi Phil
If one applies your 3 questions rules, one can conclude:
- Price is going up;
- If the next number is more than 5 or less than 1, wait for a break out - pull back set up;
- If the next number is at a good fib level from 1 to 4, then follow the fib retracement setup; and
- Most importantly, DO NOT GUESS where PRICE is GOING, WAIT for PRICE to TELL YOU what you should do!!
Sorry, I am not placing any bets! So, am I still in the game or am I kicked out?
Hi Phil, here’s my answer: there’s no single answer but several probable answers ;-). As we don’t know the rules, we have to make assumptions and create scenarios which has associated probabilities. For example, one possible answer would be:
5, with probability 0.80
0, with probability 0.20
That is, I’m betting that it’s more likely to be 5 the right answer but I’m not completely sure. Of course, if I could play this game several times I’m sure I would win the game
(Now whispering and crossing my fingers: Tell me I’m right, tell me I’m right…)
Regards,
Alberto
excellent stuff folks, your all starting to think about the options that could be answers and the reasoning for your answer, rather than just think it will be XX and thats my answer end of story.
There are still a few options left that could be an answer
Great comment Ameya!
Francesc
Hi Phil.. really GREAT. I have come to a couple of ideas as soon as I read the challenge, yet I think in SPANISH so, it will take me sometime to post them here. Meanwhile, i had a link to this in my blog, and challenge everyone to find an answer.
Still, I can do some toughts in english.. and it comes to my mind something I have learn long ago from another trader, the “KISS” rule…Keep It Simple Stu,,d” meaning 5 will be the logical and simplest answer to the question. Still I have the issue of the rules pending. Anyway, are there rules? And from this point I can made 1 thousand questions.. are we talking about natural numbers? its a full serie, or part of it? Still, may main question should be: Do i need to ask so much? A small voice in my head is telling me I have to be logical, and trust in what I see, and not to pay attention to others opinions or doubts, or even to tricky comments. Mind! what and interesting thing… I challenge all here to think of this: do you trust in what you see? Why? because other tell you to or because you know is true? How old where you when you learn, as a fact that after 4 comes 5? How come you can believe in Eisntein theory E=mc2? do you prove it? Do we have all such a lack of self confidence, we cannot even trust in numbers we learn when we were kids?
Sure this is a game, a great one.. that makes us all use the brains a bit more than usual. Well, after reading this, you certainly know what I think. I will keep this page open.. I will love to read what all of you think.
CONGRATS PHIL!!!
Kisses
Val
The answer is already in the question:
Its ?
I can’t say what’s the next to come in the numbers series that Phil proposed in his post. But what I can see is all of us are getting a wonderful learning experience here. My conclusions (I am more a person of words than of numbers):
Anything can happen in markets, so don’t give anything for granted.
Question yourself about everything all the time… You should specially question those things that you have assumed as the ‘truth’.
Be prepared for the unexpected: Your strategy must always have a B (or C, or D) plan.
Mmm… How to get this without becoming a completely paranoiac???
…,5,1,2,3. or it can be 4,3,2,1.
or should it just be one number? i don’t think so!!
42.
Anything could be next….Despite an apparent pattern or trend there are no certainties, just logical assumptions.
DC
true anything “could” be next but your comment as well as a many of the above comments are correct in that without knowing the rules of the game you do have to make a logical assumption.
Based on our upbringing as children (ie what all the text books say) we have been taught that after 4 comes 5 but who is to say that this is the right way of it?
If this is what everyone else is doing then Mr Market is going to take your money as you are making a very common assumption without thinking through all the outcomes
So what we are doing with this game is trying to figure out all the posible scenario’s so that we can make an educated choice of what might happen next.
any number
4&1/6?
tea is next
Last chance to have a go at the game… answer to this little puzzle tomorrow
There are few ways we can guess the completion of this series:
The first thing that comes to everyone’s mind is ‘5;’ however, if that would have been the answer, then there wouldn’t be any meaning for this game.
So the second proposition we can assume is ‘,’ by including ‘?’ as part of the continuous series.
However, still that doesn’t satisfy the answer completely.
In this scenario, I would like to simply put it this way:
the series continues with odd number(1), even number(2), odd number(3), even number(4); hence, my assumption would be the next number as an ‘Rational Odd number’ and as well as possibly a ‘Prime number.’
Under all these circumstances, since there are no specific rules described in this question, my final proposition for this question would be ‘Uncertainty to the Infinity.’
Malcolm
market always make the unexpected, but overall when something is clearly expected.
In my opinion, the answer is any numer except 5
Hi Phil,
The answer is 6.
9
Greetings
What comes next?
1, 2, 3, 4, ?
Not knowing anything about the market, I am assuming that ‘1, 2, 3, 4, ?’ is the entire series. All the above comments have inherintly assumed that there is another number to the sequence but I think that perhaps the ‘?’ marks the end of the series.
So, my answer to the question is nothing. Nothing comes next as ‘?’ is the end. Thats it. The market has closed for good and there is no more to come.
I am probably way off the mark but I think it pays to look at this question through a completely different set of assumptions. It seems as though we are all missing something that only the market knows.
So that was my two cents worth (again).
Ameya
First, if we follow the convention of society, everyone expects the next number in a progressive series, 5. But as we have seen in the past, convention and expectation is often times challenged.
For instance, a couple of hundred years ago, the only way to light a room was with a small flame and glass or mirrors. That is, until someone changed the rules and invented the light bulb. Did everyone know the new rule? Of course not. It probably took a few decades for the new rule to become apparent to society at large. Forget about having the necessary tools (electricity) to light the bulb. That probably took even longer.
So, we have to look at what we do have. This is a trading website and as such, this could be a market question. (Maybe he’s just counting his fingers.) And what we do know is that the market can do only one of three things. It can progress, stagnate, or regress. This is a universal truth that could not be challenged any other way.
So, what comes next? if we are thinking progressively, then the answer would be 5. If we think this is the end of the series, then it would stagnate and the answer would be 4 again. If this a peak, then the regressive answer would be 3. Take your pick. Until the rules become apparent to the society (us, the readers), no definitive answer could offered as valid. It’s a shot in the dark. Please turn on the light and let us know what the new rules are.
It would be 5 unless there is a fibonnaci retracement back to 3.
I don’t know!
Gonçalo
is it ? ie question mark itself
No matter what happens, I will just take it
in forex there are no logic answer to u question it depends on the market makeres not on logic or mathmatics ,soory but its true from my point view , if i find another answer ill go forward w it.
Phil, you are terrible it does not matter what comes next the market price is normally distributed. Price does not have a memory humans do. It’s human traders that create the link between one hours price with another. The key thing is that my strategy can be robust enought to take account of what it will be. Mr market is not one person taking my money all the traders collectivley making decisions produces a particular price level. Whatever it can be it could be. My trading epliots depend on a number of trades and not this particular one. whaterver Mr Market produces the trader should make a profit over the long term. People who gamble need to know what comes next traders don’t. For me its whatever comes next but it will not make any difference in my strategy. It will make no difference to my feels either (should’nt).