Hi Folks,

On Tuesday 23rd Dec I will be presenting an extra special webinar. This is a kiss and tell all for my set ups what I do and how I do it.

So please come along and enjoy the feature length session

See you all there
Phil N

Hi Folks,

Following on with the directional bias video series that I’m doing this video shows the current vie of the direction bias’s pre-start of the trading week for me.

The direction bias as always is based on price action. I’ll be looking to sell rallies in a down trend, buy dips in an uptrend and usually step aside during a range until price is at a decision point for me.

Have a great trading week folks

Enjoy

Phil

Hi Folks,

Just a reminder about todays webinar its free to register and join me.

http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contributors/authors/author.aspx?id=27ba7b24-e6e4-4b8b-9443-2457d23752c6

Starts at 11 GMT today.

See you all in there

Phil

Ok folks now that everyone’s head is throbbing with this the answer.

Drum roll…. (insert own sound effects)

Answer = 10

The funny thing is that out of all the possible answer I don’t think that this was one given, although it was mentioned mid way through the comments.

How did I get that? 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 10

Before you all shout at me for such a simple sum ask your self what is more important;

• The answer?
• OR
• How you came to an answer?

The object of this game was to highlight some of our failures in logical thinking. Many people simply put the answer that they thought which was simply a guess. With a little prompting some of you started to think about this and what rules need to be used to come to a conclusion.

Even the most obvious answer, 5, has a set of rules that has been bred into us from an early age as a basic number sequence. So before we come to any answer we need to establish what the rules of the game are otherwise we are making simple guesses and assumptions to ascertain an outcome.

Now lets think about this in trading terms. Mr Market knows the rules and with that same number sequence there are a certain number of possible outcomes. As traders we are looking for outcomes based on a certain sequence of events leading up to making a trade decision.

To make this decision we need a plan. We need a rule set. We don’t know the rules of the game but we do know that when certain things happen we can assume a favourable outcome.

5 is the most obvious answer and is what all the so called text books tell and and is really what Joe Public is doing and loosing money as a result. So what other outcomes could there be.

What I am telling myself as a rule set for a trading plan is that every time 1,2,3,4 happens I expect an outcome based on 1+2+3+4=10.  I have researched, back tested and forward tested this rule set and I’m happy that this is a set of rules that I can follow and make money in the market with.

The point is I have a plan based on a logical set of assumptions with a tested and expected favourable outcome based on probability.

As traders we need to always be thinking about all the possible scenarios that could develop and take a course of action if those events fit into the trading plan that you have devised, researched and tested.

So one last question.

Do you have a trading plan?