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German Retail Sales increased 0.4% on a month over month basis rising for third month in a row. On a year over comparison sales were down -2.9% but were partially depressed by the fact that 2008 had one more shopping day in the month . Low inflation rates and the rise in exchange rates which helped increase purchasing power of EZ consumers, along with fiscal stimulus injections all helped to put a floor underneath a sector that has been struggling for the past year.
Economists however, are less enthusiastic about future growth prospects in consumer demand given the increase in unemployment in the region and we tend to agree. If global growth begins to stall in the second half of 2009, the short work schemes instituted by many German companies will come under enormous pressure and unemployment rolls could swell. As we noted yesterday, “The danger of this policy is that German unemployment which is being kept artificially low with current policy of subsidies, may accelerate at a much faster pace later in the year if global demand does not increase materially.”
Source: fx360.com